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About

FCI Morning Audio for 1-19-2021.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Trending indicators have triggered a sell overnight. It has been sometime since this has occurred. The markets are skittish with inauguration set for Wednesday and appearing a totally different inauguration than usual.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Commentary for 1-16-2021

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.   515-832-6140

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 16, 2021

 

 

 Markets will be closed until Monday evening in celebration of Dr. Martin Luther King.  Inauguration for president-elect Joe Biden is next Wednesday. Tending to be an optimist, we suspect much of the rhetoric or propaganda (?) that we hear on politics will have passed. Peace? Time is coming close at hand to prove these political comments out. Could this prove negative for silver and gold? The Dollar gains on the Real?

 

 

WEATHER:     NOAA forecasts seasonally wet conditions for the entirety of the central U.S. for January 21st through January 27th. Seasonally cooler weather is likely for the Northern and Central Plains as well as, the western Corn Belt.

 

 

CORN:     Not to be left out, corn futures weakened today but going forward in time, food shortages in China will continue to add support to this market along with other export demand and domestic usage. Chinese Dalian corn futures ended the week at new record high close at 11.20 per bushel.

 

There are some analysts recommending hedges here or new crop cash sales.  We remind that in the past 50 years there have only been 4 years when the new crop December corn futures marked the yearly high for the contract in January. If, feeling the urge to do so, perhaps checking with your broker on put option spreads to floor the prices minus basis but leaving the upside open.

 

We hear cash corn is moving with a $5 in front of the prices. This may be offering resistance but we do not think for long. Private exporters reported sales of 110 tmt of corn for delivery to Mexico in 2020/21. We discussed Mexico’s dryness in Thursday’s commentary.

 

Ukrainian corn exports reach 10.2 MMT which is down 25% from that of last year.

 

Farmers have become good sellers of cash corn of late. This should prove to be good for July.

For Monday night and Tuesday, March corn has resistance at 536 and 540 with support at 527    and 522.  For the coming week, March corn has resistance at 552 and 571 with support at 501    and 469.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans did not surge forward today after expiring the January contract off near its high. Traders had anticipated a strong crush, but NOPA data showed December’s soybean crush was less than expected at 183.2 million bushels or nearly 5 MMT. Regardless of the disappointment the December crush was still the second highest on record and continues to imply rationing of soybeans is yet to occur. Soyoil stocks also were below the average trade guess at 1.699 billion pounds compared to the estimate of 1.712 billion pounds but, up 9% from November data. Still, soyoil futures fell hard to end the week.

 

The soy complex appears to be waffling now that the January reports have been released. It is now up to Argentine and Brazilian weather going forward and how February will play out. There is more talk of fighting for acres in corn and soybeans, but we note, cotton may be able to fight for acres, as well.

 

Private exporters reported the sale of 318 tmt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 2021/2022.

 

Paraguay’s 2020 soybean exports are forecast to increase 35% year over year.

 

Chinese buying interest was noted for August shipments for soybeans out of the Gulf but it was noted that China may have bought 3-5 cargoes today.

 

For Monday night and Tuesday, March soybeans have resistance at 1428 and 1441 with support at 1407 and 1399.  For the coming week, March soybeans have resistance at 1449 and 1483   with support at  1367 and 1319.

 

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures started the trading day stronger and marking new highs but faded into the session. Futures got the early surge from the expanding drought via the drought monitor into HRW country. To the north and into Canada, bitterly cold temps were being experienced but also catching some snow.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production at 17 MMT which is just slightly less than the latest USDA forecast. The European Commission forecasts soft wheat production at 129.7 MMT which is up 9% from last season. Another driving overnight force for prices was the Russian Government extending the tariffs on wheat exports from March 1st to the end of June at $50 Euro per metric tonne. There is also talk that Ukraine may add export restrictions with supplies growing tight.  Russian weekly wheat exports are 700 tmt and yearly loadings are 23% higher than a year ago. However, psychological resistance set in when futures came close to the $7 level basis the March Chicago.

 

Growing concerns are that Argentine wheat is pretty much committed with Brazil turning to the US for HRW wheat? Little by little, global competitors are seeing supplies tighten and world buyers will be forced to come to North America for wheat. That said, Canadian weekly wheat exports jump 81% while, durum wheat exports are down 43%.

 

Chicago March wheat has resistance at 691and 706 with support at 662 and 648.  For the week, resistance is at 703 and 727 with support at 639 and 603.  For Monday night and Tuesday, March KC wheat has resistance at 658 and 671 with support at 633 and 621.  For the coming week, resistance is 674 and 702 with support at 602 and 558.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:       Open interest in cattle soared nearly 10,000 contracts and open interest is now at the highest point since March 2020. Investors are eyeing moving away from stocks to commodities which is so similar to the 70s. Commodities are cheap.

 

Today’s blizzard along the I-29 corridor may get little credit for the rally on Friday but is not thought to be a great game changer in this market.

 

Choice cutout continues to see a push and improvement in most major primal and trim cuts with the chuck roasts leading the surge. The packer margins are expanding as the packer processes fed cattle costs easily as the cutout rises. Normally, the seasonal is for a February low in the cutout but we wonder will this occur again? The cycle window of timing worked beautifully. The risk is that prices should not push through the lows of the 14th.

 

Feeder cattle witnessed a jump in corn this week to the tune of 35 cents and still held support. The kill is larger than expected which we believe is a good thing but is up 2.8% from last year. The closing beef wire showed choice down 45 cents at 4212.92 with select up $2.01 at $203.08. Regardless of the larger kill, the choice gained $6.12 this week.

 

We are especially bullish deferred cattle. October, and April 22 should be good.  Food service is starting to awaken (thank you to the Democrats that now think the restaurants and kids need to be back to school or open)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info, LLC’s research department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations
should not be considered a solicitation. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named.

The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst may have any positions in these products. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Weekend Commentary for 1-16-21

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.   515-832-6140

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 16, 2021

 

 

 Markets will be closed until Monday evening in celebration of Dr. Martin Luther King.  Inauguration for president-elect Joe Biden is next Wednesday. Tending to be an optimist, we suspect much of the rhetoric or propaganda (?) that we hear on politics will have passed. Peace? Time is coming close at hand to prove these political comments out. Could this prove negative for silver and gold? The Dollar gains on the Real?

 

 

WEATHER:     NOAA forecasts seasonally wet conditions for the entirety of the central U.S. for January 21st through January 27th. Seasonally cooler weather is likely for the Northern and Central Plains as well as, the western Corn Belt.

 

 

CORN:     Not to be left out, corn futures weakened today but going forward in time, food shortages in China will continue to add support to this market along with other export demand and domestic usage. Chinese Dalian corn futures ended the week at new record high close at 11.20 per bushel.

 

There are some analysts recommending hedges here or new crop cash sales.  We remind that in the past 50 years there have only been 4 years when the new crop December corn futures marked the yearly high for the contract in January. If, feeling the urge to do so, perhaps checking with your broker on put option spreads to floor the prices minus basis but leaving the upside open.

 

We hear cash corn is moving with a $5 in front of the prices. This may be offering resistance but we do not think for long. Private exporters reported sales of 110 tmt of corn for delivery to Mexico in 2020/21. We discussed Mexico’s dryness in Thursday’s commentary.

 

Ukrainian corn exports reach 10.2 MMT which is down 25% from that of last year.

 

Farmers have become good sellers of cash corn of late. This should prove to be good for July.

For Monday night and Tuesday, March corn has resistance at 536 and 540 with support at 527    and 522.  For the coming week, March corn has resistance at 552 and 571 with support at 501    and 469.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans did not surge forward today after expiring the January contract off near its high. Traders had anticipated a strong crush, but NOPA data showed December’s soybean crush was less than expected at 183.2 million bushels or nearly 5 MMT. Regardless of the disappointment the December crush was still the second highest on record and continues to imply rationing of soybeans is yet to occur. Soyoil stocks also were below the average trade guess at 1.699 billion pounds compared to the estimate of 1.712 billion pounds but, up 9% from November data. Still, soyoil futures fell hard to end the week.

 

The soy complex appears to be waffling now that the January reports have been released. It is now up to Argentine and Brazilian weather going forward and how February will play out. There is more talk of fighting for acres in corn and soybeans, but we note, cotton may be able to fight for acres, as well.

 

Private exporters reported the sale of 318 tmt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for 2021/2022.

 

Paraguay’s 2020 soybean exports are forecast to increase 35% year over year.

 

Chinese buying interest was noted for August shipments for soybeans out of the Gulf but it was noted that China may have bought 3-5 cargoes today.

 

For Monday night and Tuesday, March soybeans have resistance at 1428 and 1441 with support at 1407 and 1399.  For the coming week, March soybeans have resistance at 1449 and 1483   with support at  1367 and 1319.

 

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures started the trading day stronger and marking new highs but faded into the session. Futures got the early surge from the expanding drought via the drought monitor into HRW country. To the north and into Canada, bitterly cold temps were being experienced but also catching some snow.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates Argentine wheat production at 17 MMT which is just slightly less than the latest USDA forecast. The European Commission forecasts soft wheat production at 129.7 MMT which is up 9% from last season. Another driving overnight force for prices was the Russian Government extending the tariffs on wheat exports from March 1st to the end of June at $50 Euro per metric tonne. There is also talk that Ukraine may add export restrictions with supplies growing tight.  Russian weekly wheat exports are 700 tmt and yearly loadings are 23% higher than a year ago. However, psychological resistance set in when futures came close to the $7 level basis the March Chicago.

 

Growing concerns are that Argentine wheat is pretty much committed with Brazil turning to the US for HRW wheat? Little by little, global competitors are seeing supplies tighten and world buyers will be forced to come to North America for wheat. That said, Canadian weekly wheat exports jump 81% while, durum wheat exports are down 43%.

 

Chicago March wheat has resistance at 691and 706 with support at 662 and 648.  For the week, resistance is at 703 and 727 with support at 639 and 603.  For Monday night and Tuesday, March KC wheat has resistance at 658 and 671 with support at 633 and 621.  For the coming week, resistance is 674 and 702 with support at 602 and 558.

 

 

SUGAR:     When looking at sugar, we have to review Brazilian production.  The sugar market has been quite strong but there are concerns over high open interest and the potential for a large taker of supply that will tighten up available supplies during the inter harvest period for Brazil. The Brazilian harvest is early this year. Total supply is massive this season due to combination of higher sugarcane availability, increased yields, and greater percentage of the crop being allocated to sugar rather than for ethanol. Global prices are strong compared to the past 5 years.

 

Still, the 2021/22 crop output will be cut due to the Brazilian drought and it is uncertain what percentage will be allocated to sugar at this time but, at current pricing it would seem tat mills will still lean towards sugar as the did the past season. Rising inflation with higher interest rates head up and should keep ethanol demand subdued with ethanol demand slow as it is in the US. This makes exporting sugarcane much more attractive than processing into ethanol.

 

With higher prices, Russia is already entertaining expansion of sugar beet sowings this coming spring. That said, other producers will follow suit.

 

Technically, our very longer term indicators are bullish and while we may hit some weak periods, outlook remains positive for sugar.  The quarterly floater is 60% positive and the timer is 37% positive. We would look for the timer to eventually hit a minimum of 75%. The upper Bollinger Band is 2074.  Sugar is another market from the 70s that traders watched as in the “three Ss.”  I think the best key for this market is to give it plenty of time so when buying, we wonder about the October contract and March of 2022. The quarterly TRx is positive and stochastic is 55% K and 31% D, so in an upward implication. Note, the quarterly lead contract chart shows sugar has broken the down trending line of resistance since the first quarter of 2011.  Also note, the trending averages while moving up for the past two quarters is still negative but very close together (green needs to go over red) and doing so should set this market in motion. We have also exceeded the first quarter of 2020’s range and singleton top.

 

 

 

COFFEE:   As we started into the new year, coffee strengthened with the Brazilian Real holding on track with this week’s prices pushing back up with the currency until today. The Dollar is trying to show its strong suit against the Real.

 

Predictions are that Brazil will face rising interest rates and inflation and it would be expected that the currency will appreciate over time.  This would tend to make it less likely that Brazil will export aggressively and there has been a noticeable slowing of exports.  December is one of the strongest months for exports and then volumes of export tend to taper off.

 

The US Dollar is a mixed bag with increased debt and already plans to increase stimulus funding to Americans to help revive the economy.  Still, we note, airlines are looking to April that they will open up flying and will once again be serving coffee not to mention, restaurants serving coffee with dessert.

 

Coffee demand will set in well in advance of the economy taking off and coffee will need to be purchased and roasted. In other words, demand will set in before the pandemic ends with the supply chain stocking up. South Americans are blocked out of the UK, because of Brazilian mutation and Panama is tracking its own and was added to the list. The US is finally requiring foreigners to show a negative test before being admitted and there is even the possibility of domestic travelers needed to be tested before being admitted and there is even the potential of domestic travelers needing to be tested before flying.

 

The Brazilian Arabica crop is going to experience one of the largest off-season drops that it has had in many years due to drought and heat in combination that inflicted severe damage to a large portion of the coffee belt. There was extensive damage but trees that were young or pruned in 2019 withstood the poorer weather better than older trees. However, the losses of Arabic coffee could be offset by the higher Robusta output but this is also not a sure bet. There are reports of very dry weather and similar hot weather in some key Robusta growing regions. While, believing Robusta production will be fine as the dry weather came after the Robusta crop was well on its way in development. However, Arabica production dealt with water deficits and heat at the worst possible time just after the trees had blossomed. 

 

More years than not, stocks tend to go up in December, but in the past 30 years the amount of the stock build up has been quite small.

 

May coffee ended the week with the highest close since the week of September 8th, 2020. Like other markets such as grains and soy, coffee has been in a range bound base building affair.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:       Open interest in cattle soared nearly 10,000 contracts and open interest is now at the highest point since March 2020. Investors are eyeing moving away from stocks to commodities which is so similar to the 70s. Commodities are cheap.

 

Today’s blizzard along the I-29 corridor may get little credit for the rally on Friday but is not thought to be a great game changer in this market.

 

Choice cutout continues to see a push and improvement in most major primal and trim cuts with the chuck roasts leading the surge. The packer margins are expanding as the packer processes fed cattle costs easily as the cutout rises. Normally, the seasonal is for a February low in the cutout but we wonder will this occur again? The cycle window of timing worked beautifully. The risk is that prices should not push through the lows of the 14th.

 

Feeder cattle witnessed a jump in corn this week to the tune of 35 cents and still held support. The kill is larger than expected which we believe is a good thing but is up 2.8% from last year. The closing beef wire showed choice down 45 cents at 4212.92 with select up $2.01 at $203.08. Regardless of the larger kill, the choice gained $6.12 this week.

 

We are especially bullish deferred cattle. October, and April 22 should be good.  Food service is starting to awaken (thank you to the Democrats that now think the restaurants and kids need to be back to school or open)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info, LLC’s research department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations
should not be considered a solicitation. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named.

The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst may have any positions in these products. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-14-2021

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.   515-832-6140

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 14, 2021

 

 

WEATHER:     The evening GFS model run for South America showed very little change for significant rainfall in the coming week ahead. The weather outlook in much of the production regions remain unchanged.  In Argentina, a meaningful and much needed rain event will occur in most of the nation on Friday through Saturday. The exception may be in La Pampa; though some locally decent rainfall is occurring in this province this evening and tonight. However, a lengthy period of dryness will follow the rain event leading to some increase in crop stress, especially in pockets of the region that miss out of getting much rain this week. Rain is still likely to return to Argentina in the last week of January, but confidence in the significance of the rain is also still low. This evening’s GFS model run tried to suggest some rain returning to eastern Argentina January 22nd through 24th, but it may take longer than this and until January 25th and 26th for rain to increase in the nation again.

 

Brazilian conditions will still be very good in most areas, but some pockets of Rio Grande do Sul may become a bit too dry occasionally while rain will occur often enough to prevent crop stress from becoming serious. There will also be notable dryness from eastern Minas Gerais into north-central and northeastern Bahia while, this is outside of the most important grain, oilseed and cotton production areas.

 

CORN:     As we start discussing grains and soy this evening, I want to share that there were newsbreaks today indicating that the military would be involved along with police and national guard to protect cities or state capitals in various 50 states. Earlier this week, the FBI warned of such a potential threat. With the political landscape tenuous at best, I reached out to a friend that gave my concerns to the president of RJ O’brien, Jerry Corchoran  about what would happen if martial law were to be enacted? Would banks close and would exchanges close? His answer was no. Due to banking having become so electronic as are markets, he felt they would not be closed. I respect his answer as his concern for the firm and the O’brien family would be first and foremost in his mind. Just sharing. Still, it does not mean that markets would not become more volatile than they already are.

 

Today was cycle window timing in soybeans and wheat which fed into corn by default. Corn made a lower daily low overnight in an effort to fill the gap left on Wednesday’s trade. A 1.75 cent gap remains unfilled. This should be a measuring gap. More importantly, corn is pushing underneath the gaps left from 2013. We are sharing the gaps below: (Please note, the first chart is of the lead contract weekly continuous chart and the gap was left in 2013. The rest of the charts shown below are from segments of the daily continuous charts for each specific contract and due to the size of the charts we share only the timeframes that show the gaps.)

 

We note today’s drought monitor continues to show major drought in the southwest and across the very lower portion of the country into the southeastern states. More importantly, take a note of how dire the drought situation is in Mexico. Emailing with a contact in coffee today, I was told that the situation in Mexico is becoming quite concerning. We would anticipate Mexico to remain an avid buyer of corn. That said, corn seeding in the Gulf states such as Texas can start as early as the next 45 days.

 

Take a look at the drought map for the US States. This should be concerning for winter wheat and if this increases in February as winter wheat comes out of dormancy, wheat could be quite enthusiastic? Corn?

 

Corn continues to see better than expected export demand and we again question the S&D report of this week when exports were lowered. We suspect prices would need to push farther to slow export demand. We also have to add, have you noticed how governors with focus on foolish Cuomo now talking about opening up the country? All I can say is the man is disgusting. I do not watch CNN anymore.

 

We wonder if the gap on the weekly continuous chart will respond like a magnet.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 541 and 546 with support at 524 and 512. We would now view the low of Thursday as a caution sign.

 

Lastly, Brazilian corn tests record highs due to expecting supply deficit. International Grains Council estimates global corn stocks to fall 29 MMT this year.

 

 

SOYBEANS:      Soybeans awoke from its slumber of the past two sessions. Futures pushed out the low of Wednesday by a quarter of a cent and that showed strong support for the March futures. We talked about the January contract going off the board at its high and that occurred. This market should see higher highs in February. We alert the characteristic for July soybeans making new contract highs in the month of February tends to favor higher highs again after February.

 

While we continue to believe this market is destined for better times or stronger prices, we cannot help but to also add caution as it is all how we get there and the public has finally became believers and there are many analysts that believe this market could move parabolic. Perhaps, but there could be one dynamic break that would shake the timbers of these late comers before the ultimate high is seen this year.

 

We have implied that our ultimate outlook for strong soybean prices is into 2023. What this is saying is that try hard to not get caught up in emotion and assess your risk as you move through and with this market. Last year, rice made a huge move higher and we are watching rice stats but as yet, global stocks are not tightening that much. Should we get rice on board with wheat, corn, coarse grains and soybeans, then we have a huge bull on our hands.

 

We share that we are watching our trending averages very closely as should they roll over, one should be willing to exit the markets. For now, the trending averages remain positive for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Today was a major cycle window of time and soybeans barely exceeded Wednesday’s low and turned strong. Like corn, the low of overnight Wednesday night/today should be a line in the sand. What fundamental would break the market? We think it could be political as much as anything.

 

Weekly soybean sales reached an 8-week high at 33 million bushels while, Foreign Ag Service has reported 75 million bushels in sales this week. Also important is that outstanding sales have shrank sharply and stand at 577 million bushels this week from 1.3 billion in October. We are fully committed to the expectation that global countries will be building reserves and China is ahead of them. We mentioned the potential of 30-33 for soybeans and in 2023 this would not shock us but we will walk through this thought as we go forward.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1443 and 1456 with support at 1410 and 1390.  The next cycle window of time is January 29th with the date of the 30th on a Saturday.

 

Taking a few notes from Argentine neighbors, Brazilian truckers union warned in local media that an upcoming strike scheduled for February 1st, could be worse than the strike from 2018 when national action over pay  and conditions cut off essential supplies to major cities across the country.

 

The president of the National Association of Autonomous Transport (ANTB) was quoted today in numerous Brazilian media outlets warning that the protests over rising diesel prices is gathering support to be bigger than in 2018. Brazil has few major railways and is very reliant on truck transportation to move goods around the country. The last strike in 2018 damaged the government of Michel Temer.  ANTB claims to represent 60-70% of Brazilian transport. A widespread prolonged strike could be catastrophe for Brazilian new crop soybeans harvest that is to come to market in February and is currently facing delay concerns. This could further Chinese demand in the US.  That said, we have to share, the current president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, a former military officer capitalized on his predecessor’s struggle to resolve the trucker strike in 2018. In the report this week, USDA/WASDE forecast Brazil would export 85 MMT of soybeans and 39 MMT of corn.

 

Lastly, Argentine soymeal exports have fallen 18% in the past season.

 

 

WHEAT:     The drought monitor by states shown under corn is a concern. This implies that wheat may see more bullish numbers as we go forward in monthly S&D reports. This should give way to a further tightening of the spread long KC and short Chicago. The old days to be revisited? KC would go premium to Chicago.

 

World Weather, Inc. shared this evening that the southern region of Russian winter wheat crop would endure cold temperatures but may enjoy a chance at snow cover in the northern sections of the Southern Region before the cold air expands and should offer protection to the crop.

 

Argentine wheat harvest is said to be complete.

 

Weekly US exports of wheat were down 14% but the market was unphased. Global output estimates have been cut by 1 MMT with consumption increased 1 MMT.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 678 and 685 with support at 658 and 645.  KC March wheat has resistance 645 and 653 with support at 625 and 613.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle futures broke hard early in the session and this was day 7 in a cyclical count down. Cattle cycle window of time was today and we think this market should offer a rally effort.  High winds and heavy snow in Montana, Dakotas, and Iowa with high winds in Nebraska should offer support as we head into the weekend.   That said, the timing offered a buying opportunity for a trade if nothing else and this market should not take out the low of this timing “after” a rally effort. There is the line in the sand.

 

We are hearing restaurants are starting to book ahead supplies. Good news. However, the cash fed cattle prices are lower. Cash has weakened this week due to packers seeing feeders for a variety of reasons such as mud and corn prices or needing pen space push cattle to market. While, the market would normally try to rally here, it may be the heavy weight cattle are still around that need to come to market. We note, cash is down $14 than this time last year and at a 10-year low. Better days are ahead but we are in the last half of the year. That said, we like the cattle from today and will be willing to take a quick trade.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info, LLC’s research department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations
should not be considered a solicitation. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named.

The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst may have any positions in these products. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-14-2021.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Major cycle window of timing for soybeans, wheat, cattle, hogs, the Dollar, crude oil, and gold.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Comment for 1-13-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 13, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

Corn:  *Recommend making 15% old crop cash sales at 508 basis the March contract. Sell  another 5% at 512-514. DONE.

 

 

CORN:     Corn futures held onto a stronger day but closed in the lower half of the day’s range. Corn gapped higher on Tuesday night and left a 5 cent gap. The gap remained unfilled into today’s close. Cycle window of timing is tonight and through the 14th.

 

We said this morning that we would post charts to refresh subscribers on the gaps that exist in the corn market on various months. As the saying goes, “a picture is worth a thousand words.” However, I am just getting a start on the commentary as I have had visitors much of the afternoon, so the graphs will be in the Thursday evening commentary.

 

Corn found support on a further cut from CONAB which is Brazil’s statistical agency similar to the US’s USDA.  Traders looking ahead believe corn stocks will tighten further going forward as the economy starts back up as we move into April. Ethanol processors will source corn and we notices the bio-diesel usage of soy oil increased rather than decreased like ethanol. Interesting. CONAB estimated the 2021 corn production at 102.3 MMT on the same amount of hectares as last season.

 

While Argentine government lifted the country’s old crop export ban, and said they would monitor daily exports and supplies to make sure the country does not run out, it still allows for more exports to take place and domestic farmers feel they won this round. Still, the news did little to put a dent in the rally spirit for corn.

 

With corn prices on the Dalian Exchange trading at 11.38, commercials continue to look to importers to be avid buyers of US corn. Prices in the US are over half of what the prices are in China so, why not?

 

We also find it interesting that a corn futures refuse to look at temperatures in Argentina and portions of Brazil that are mild and in the mid-80s to low 90s. This speaks to the demand side of the equation for corn.

 

There is expectation that Russia will enact a tariff on barley and corn in efforts to slow exports.

 

Technically, the gaps start at 548 and this is close at hand. We are curious as to how futures will play out in February when crop insurance is at play. This looks like a year that we could see high prices in the first half and corrections in the seasonal play of last half. A lead contract of corn should trade back to 455 this year. However, we can define that tighter as well.

 

The acceleration of gain in corn over the past week has slowed to some degree. Still, managed funds have accumulated huge profits.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 536 and 548 with support at 517 and 510.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans slipped to weaker values on CONAB estimating Brazilian soybean crop at 133.7 MMT with a yield of 51.9 bpa on 3.4% more hectares. The forecast calls for drier and warmer weather to northern and central portions of Brazil with temps forecast to move into the mid-80s and low 90s but Argentina is also to be drier through the same period but suffer from temps ramping back higher into the upper 90s and lower 100s. This forecast is into the end of January.

 

Private exporters reported the sale of 464,300 mt of soybeans to unknown destinations with 396,300 mt for delivery in 2020/21 and the rest in 2021/22. Of course, most believe this is China but keep in mind, Mexico is in drier conditions and may remain in dryness for a bit longer. Could this also be Mexico? Still, either way, this is a sizeable order but futures ignored the news.

 

For now, crushing margins remain profitable and with Chinese crushers looking at huge profits, we suspect they will continue to seek US soybeans on concerns of delayed harvesting in Brazil.

 

Soybeans are into major cycle window of time tonight through tomorrow. Futures closed down today and this could sponsor a low with another effort to push back higher. That said, we expect January soybeans to expire tomorrow near the highs. Normally, in a year such as this, highs are not made in January and the earliest we have noticed has been February 8th or 9th but again, we look ahead to anticipate better prices. One characteristic we have noticed in past times on dramatic rallies is a hard break before the ultimate high is struck. Bottom line, all grains and soy had been round so tightly that coming out of the prolonged base the rally normally would be that of letting off steam. Crazy and perhaps getting ahead of ourselves, but we think 2023 will be the ultimate high and wonder, can soybeans reach 30 to 33? In other words, we do not wish to sell more than one year’s crop at a time. Ignore such suggestions.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1428 and 1448 with support at 1395 and 1382.  Note, on a March “continuous” monthly chart, the 2014 high is 1460 with the highest close for a month since then at 1415. March soybeans have pushed through a .618 percent retracement from the high of 2012 to the low of 2020 and we note, soybeans like .786 retracements. That equates to 1534.9. We caution in becoming rampantly bullish now. Everyone is on board with knowledge and the Bollinger Bands are spread like jaws which does not last. The futures have enjoyed a 10 month in a cycle count higher which leads us to believe the rally could stall in February and there is cycle window of time after January 14th, 30, on February 17th and 21st.  Crops will be fighting for acres with soybeans but that can also be done on the downside as well.

 

One more thought, basis a July soybean contract the highest the contract has closed on a yearly basis is 1413. The upper Bollinger Band on July soybeans is 1551.5. It appears this market is pushing into waters that could become choppy.

 

 

WHEAT:     Spreads gave Chicago wheat a breather while KC gained. Minneapolis closed up 8 cents. Intrigue around Russia’s wheat export policy did little to offer support today to Chicago futures. Increasing export taxes on Russian wheat is set to go into action next month.

 

Bangladesh 50 tmt of what is expected to be added up to 200 tmt of wheat tenders. Jordan’s MIT booked 60 tmt but otherwise trade was quiet today.

 

Wheat also has cycle window timing and this is pulling corn into the mix by default.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 675 and 690 with support at 650 and 640.  March KC wheat has resistance at 636 and 648 with support at 615 and 606.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle futures closed mixed under quieter trade today. Cattle are into a seasonal selloff and we suspect there could be weakness in the cash market for nearly another month? The Goldman Roll should finish tomorrow and this could pull some selling pressure away. We continue to hear that there are heavier cattle being worked off from the pandemic issues and with corn futures pushing over the $5 level it is adding pressure to feeders.

 

We continue to prefer the June on out but especially the October live cattle for long positions. The fronts may drag these backwards to give opportunity. April 2022 could also be a good month but we have time for that.

 

April fats have a spike low underneath that should offer support on any good selloff. This also portends positive outlook for 2022 April contract. Support beneath is 112.02 area and resistance above is 121.27. We do not care to buy the April contract.

 

On the short term, the March feeders daily floater is 3% negative, the timer is 4% negative and the TRx is flat which should lead to a positive move. The weekly floater is trying to turn negative with the timer at 27% positive and Bollinger Bands are narrowing. This implies a move is coming? The TRx is negative but at a support shelf.

 

Bottom line, cattle are dealing with technical resistance, seasonality, higher corn prices, and needing the economy to gain back its mojo. We look for this to occur in the last half of 2021 when corn flips and turns seasonally negative.  

 

Today’s cutout showed choice beef up $1.86 at $211.00 with select up 0.97 at $199.06. Movement was 97 boxes and 46 trim.

 

Lastly, the House voted to impeach but we heard Mitch McConnell will not call back Senators to vote before the 19th so, this may not be the win they were looking for. Still, Trump may pardon himself before he leaves office. We suspect many of Trump endeavors will be claimed as Biden victories. Already Cuomo is talking about kids going back to school and perhaps restaurants to open. Really? Think there was any politics played in the Coronavirus? By now, many of us are just ready to move on and hopefully get some peace. Regardless, the economy should take off by April to May and this should drive June cattle higher but it is August and actually the October that should do quite well.

 

Placements have peaked and weights with $5 corn prices should see a decline. Demand for meat should be on the uptick and with a Democratic president, stimulus money should be not far away. Another round of PPP is in the works.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-13-21.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Corn yield drop grabbed attention along with December 1st quarterly stocks tighter than traders thought.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-12-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 12, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

Corn:  *Recommend making 15% old crop cash sales at 508 basis the March contract. Sell another 5% at 514 basis March futures. DONE

 

 

WEATHER:     Rainfall has been hit or miss in Sao Paulo, Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and portions of Southern Brazil to start 2021. There was still enough moisture in the soil to maintain generally favorable crop conditions, though many fields have trended a bit too dry for ideal crop development recent. Bahia is also too dry and would benefit from more rain. A large section of Brazilian crop areas will see chances of showers and thunderstorms evolve on a frequent basis this week. The driest areas in center-south, and center-west should receive enough rain to reverse the drying trend and return a good environment for crops. Bahia and far southern Brazil will also receive enough rains to support generally favorable crop conditions.

 

Western Sao Paulo, Central and some northern Mato Grosso locations along with Tocantins, Bahia, Rio Grande do Sul, and portions of northern Parana and eastern Santa Catarina have started the month off in a drier than normal bias. Rainfall as a percent of normal from January 1-12th ranged from 10% to 54% with drier still pockets. Portions of Mato Grosso do Sul, southern and central Minas Gerais, and western Parana received near to above normal rainfall while most other production areas received near to slightly below normal rainfall. It appears Brazilian crop production areas are a have and have not situation.

 

Topsoil moisture was rated short to very short today in Bahia, northern Minas Gerais, Tocantins, and portions of central Mato Grosso, western Sao Paulo, as well as northeastern Goias. Many of these drier biased areas had marginally adequate to short subsoil moisture suggesting stress had not reached critical levels during this past week. The exception to that was in parts of Tocantins, Bahia, and interior southwestern Mato Grosso where subsoil moisture was rated short to very short. However, the driest areas were relatively small in size relative to total grain and oilseed production areas in Brazil limiting the potential impact on production if relief does not occur soon.

 

Dryness in northeastern Brazil has been most serious in recent weeks, but the region from eastern Bahia into Pernambuco is not known for its grain and oilseed production but rather for cocoa and coffee.

 

Bottom line, center-south, center-west, and northeastern Brazil will see rain scatter across crop areas on a near daily basis during the coming week. Rainfall is forecast to be enough to gradually bolster soil moisture.  (compliments of World Weather, Inc.)

 

 

CORN:     Corn futures finished limit up and fulfilled a Wave 4 on the daily March and July corn. What now? We note the high of 2014 on a lead contract monthly chart is 519 but this market closed over the highest monthly close of 513.75 today.  We also note, this month is the 7th month higher in a cyclical count. We are not bearish corn but we are apprehensive of the price level we are at as a correction at this time would offer a beautiful chart pattern but corn futures do not have to do so. It is the Wave 4 daily count that has our attention. Taking out the 519 monthly lead contract high opens the door for an effort of pushing to 550. Now, basis March corn “continuous” contract on monthly data, the high of 2014 is 523. There is a huge unfilled gap from 532 to 684 basis the weekly lead contract and we suspect this market is itching to push into the gap area. A correction at this time would really open the door nicely but it does not have to do so. We need corn to show us what it wishes to do. Cycle window timing is due on Thursday and, tomorrow’s trade is important. Thus far, corn has not been leaving gap higher days. Note, on a weekly basis, a weekly continuous chart shows a Wave 3 at 529.25.  Wave 3s and 4s are quite important and last year was a year of many Wave 4s. We share a Wave 4 on March continuous weekly corn is 684. We do not expect that in straight terms or where is soybeans going? Try to keep bullish attitudes humble but yes, we are still bullish. “It is all how we get there.”

 

“A pullback day or day and half and then another push through the highs into the cycle timing will be a sign that this market is wishing to push onward.  Ultimately, we believe corn is going to move higher and farmers still retain ownership of much of the nation’s corn contrary to much of the 2020/21 soybean crop being in commercial ownership.

 

Today’s corn numbers showed what we expected all along that the corn crop had dealt with more adversity than the soy crop in last season’s weather. For much of 2020 we said we thought corn was following the path of 2010 and once again, this appears to be on target. In 2010, the yield fell every month into the final. The drop of 3.8 bpa was shocking to the trade and sent this market flying. That said, feed and residual usage fell 50 million bushels which could be an indication of just how many pigs and hogs were euthanized. Ethanol usage fell 100 million bushels and that is a reasonable expectation. However, exports were reduced by 100 million bushels and that does not seem palatable at all. Corn exports are good and have been running nicely ahead of last year. China is in need of corn, we are now seeing Vietnam come for corn and they are not a traditional buyer. WASDE increased farm gate prices by 20 cents to $4.20. The ending carryout declined to 1.552 billion bushels on creativity.

 

That said, China was forecast to import 17.5 MMT of corn compared to the last report of 16.5 MMT.  Elsewhere, corn imports into European Union countries hit 8.9 MMT which is about 25% less than this time last year.

 

Brazilian corn exports in the first week of January exceeded 600 tmt.

 

Global stocks fell 5.13 MMT with nearly all of that coming out of China.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 527 and 535 with support at 499 and 479.  Limits expand to 40 cents tomorrow.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     While corn remained limit up, soybeans slipped off of their highs but still closed strong. The average trade guess for the US soybean carryout was 135 million bushels and WASDE came out at 140 million bushels. Still, WASDE implied that soybean rationing was not happening. How high is high?

 

Like corn, the soybean yield was reduced by a half bushel per acre which did not surprise us either as the area we are located suffered from dryness but soybeans out performed corn. This showed up in the report today. That said, WASDE was creative here too in that they found 2 million bushels in beginning supplies, added another 20 million bushels of soybean “imports” to tally up at 35 million bushels. The crush was increased 5 million bushels, the exports were upped 30 million bushels and the net result was the carryout fell 35 million bushels to 140. WASDE raised farm gate price to 11.15 from 10.55.

 

Stocks to usage ratio is now figured at 3% and the smallest on record is 2.6% in 2013/14 and did little to rally the market. This time is different but, keep in mind, this market is on a large rally already. The global stocks slipped 1.33 MMT with Argentine stocks dropping 2 MMT with Brazil remaining unchanged and this too is no shock. However, Chinese stocks increased 2 MMT  which came from domestic production???? What about all the floods?

 

Chinese buyers continue to show interest in Brazilian soybeans for April through July with firm bids for April at $1.32 per bushel over the May futures. Freight rates continue to be pushed higher. Earlier today, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs raised their forecast for soybean imports in 2020/21 by 3 MMT to 98.1 MMT and raised domestic output to a record high 19.6 MMT. A new sale of 120 tmt was reported to unknown destinations which the trade believes is China.

 

Gulf basis was offered at $1.02 over the March futures on a FOB (freight on board) basis and the same shipment out of the PNW was $1.30 over the March futures. However, CIF premiums for barges slipped 1-2 cents a bushel lower. The Brazilian Real was stronger today against the US Dollar but that did not deter premiums.

 

Basis the March continuous monthly chart, the high of 2014 was 1460 of which futures fell back to 1175 but futures were in an overall down trending market and had peaked. Thus far, soybeans are in an 8 month up cycle count. Major cycle window of timing is Thursday.

 

The market is able to work on everyone’s psychic as it continues to fast forward but again the Bollinger Bands are spread apart like jaws and the 3 month moving average is on top of the upper band. This usually does not last for long. Try to not get caught up in emotion. A 3 month RSI is at 99%.  Now, if one is itching to make sales here, we would suggest utilizing puts. It may also help keep the emotion in check and note the volatility is helping premiums to be a bit higher but this still may be a safer way out. The monthly floater is 82% positive, the timer is 79% positive but it appears the 1452 to 1475 area is a zone of concern.

 

More importantly, the weekly continuous “March” chart shows the floater at 89% with the timer at 99% both positive. However, we find it interesting that there appears to be divergence in the floater in that it is not making higher highs while prices are. This usually should have one’s radar. After having said all this, is January going to be the top in this market? NO! It is all how you get there. At some point this year, a lead contract should trade back towards 1228.5.  Be careful.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1448 and 1473 with support at 1378 and 1333.

 

 

WHEAT:     Even before the reports release today, wheat futures were up sharply on news that Russian Ag Ministry would increase their export tariffs on wheat to $50 euros per mt.  Lack of Russian wheat offers had Egypt cancel their latest tender.

 

WASDE forecast global wheat stocks down 3.3 MMT to 313.2 MMT due to increased feed usage and less supplies. The US stocks fell 9% from last year’s total to 1.67 billion bushels. Winter wheat seeding were increased 5% for the 2021/22 crop at 31.99 million acres.

 

South Korea’s KOFMIA booked 50 tmt of US milling wheat for April shipment. Another group booked 50 tmt of Australian milling wheat as well. Japan announced a tender for 116,700 mt of milling wheat from Australia, Canada, and US for February – March shipment.

 

European Union wheat exports were revised up 800 tmt to 13.6 MMT.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March wheat has resistance at 679 and 692 with support at 643 and 620.  KC March wheat has resistance at 634 and 646 with support at 602 and 582.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:   We will cover cattle and hogs in tomorrow’s report.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-12-2021.mp3

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WHAT IF?


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-11-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 12, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

Corn:  Recommend making 15% old crop cash sales at 508 basis the March contract. Sell another 5% at 514 basis March futures.

 

 

WEATHER:

 

 

 

CORN:     Corn performed the weakest today after the day wore on but news that a GMO corn, DBN9501, is a resistant corn to the fall armyworm which has reached China’s cornbelt region last year. China is very concerned about food security for its people and the Ministry of Agriculture also said today that it had approved two new GMO corn varieties for import. The glyphosate-resistant and insect-resistant MON87411 sold by Bayer’s Crop Science unit and MZIR098 produced by Syngenta. Syngenta is a unit of China’s state-owned ChemChina.

 

Corn prices continue to push new all-time highs and closed on Monday at $11.24 on the Dalian Exchange. Out of Asia, corn demands is starting to surge with Vietnam’s importers securing volumes for shipments in the first quarter and a deal has been said to have occurred with US origin corn for March arrival. This could be the start of more to come from Vietnam with Argentine corn not plentiful for exports.

 

News of Argentine government lifting the export restrictions on corn weighed on futures but not badly when realization was that only 30 tmt per day could be loaded and shipped. That equates to a mere 1.35 MMT compared to another 4 MMT that normally could be sold.

 

Private exporters reported the sale of 108,500 mt of corn for delivery to Colombia in 2020/21. There is talk that Egypt is also in the market for corn.

 

Bottom line, corn is dealing with profit taking and resistance against the psychological $5 price level. We continue to expect waffling in both corn and soybeans heading into Tuesday’s reports. A sharp surge to the 508 – 514 area should be met with a correction as anyone wishing to be long will be on board.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Futures pushed last week’s high before falling lower on the day. However, soymeal helped support soybeans to rally back to close down 1.25 to 2.25 cents. Soy oil fell and closed down 96 basis the March contract.

 

Private exporters reported the sale of 132 tmt of soybeans for delivery to China in this crop year.

 

China announced today that the government is ready to approve the safety of another genetically modified corn variety and a soybean variety which both are produced by Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co. Ltd.

 

Last year, China approved three domestically designed GMO crops as safe, the first in a decade. This is a push towards commercial planting of GMO crops in the world’s top soybean importer and a major corn buyer. Up to now, Beijing has never permitted planting GMO soybean and corn varieties but it permits import for use in animal feed.

 

However, of late the government has said that it wishes to support biotech breeding to boost food security, leading the industry to expect progress  towards commercialism in the coming year. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has opened its plan for safety approval for public comment until February 1st.

 

One of the new products, a glufosate and glugosinate-resistant soybean known as DBN9004, has already been approved as safe in Argentina, where Dabeinong is also seeking commercial production.

 

China is said to be buying soybeans out of the PNW on concerns that delays will fall short from Brazil and there may be delays in shipping. In fact, soybean export inspections were much better than trader expectations. Brazilian harvest has been slow to get a good foothold but thus far, the yields we hear out of Mato Grosso are disappointing. Chinese premiums are stronger today on concerns over the Brazilian ability to ship soybean timely. This may be a harvest that also sees the Stevedores strike as it seemed to work so well in Argentina? If so, that may be more of a market mover in April? We also note, freight rates are rising due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore.

 

There is talk that Chinese crushers were checking soybean prices for May and June shipments but no sales were announced.

 

Traders are willing to continue to take profits on rallies and cover shorts on dips in efforts to finding the sideline until the reports are released on Tuesday. These are dynamite reports and traders have to expect the worse in case NASS finds more bushels. We think this will occur slightly in soybeans but corn will see the yield decline.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1389 and 1406 with support at 1354 and 1336.  Again, major cycle window of timing due on the 14th, Thursday.

 

 

WHEAT:     Wheat enjoyed a quiet day with not much news. In Russia, there is talk of potential increases to an impending export duty on wheat with global prices having already offset and perhaps, negate the effect of the 25 euros/metric tonne tax to come into force this week?

 

China is rumored to have bought two cargoes of wheat at the end of last week.

 

We have to offer a thought which applies to corn and soybeans but wheat especially as the move towards global reserves being built continues to look more applicable as we move forward. There is quite a bit of rhetoric about  a major shake-up in the US that could cause martial law to be put in order. The military is said to be flying reconnaissance missions and both shores are being also being patrolled along with the north and south borders. Could this be another reason for the border wall? That said, should there be a martial law enacted, markets may not be trading. If, this is going to happen it may be between now and inauguration. Will, president-elect Biden be inaugurated? Note, there is not definite date or rule that says inauguration has to occur on January 20th.  It could be March. So, 2020 was crazy but it may be that 2021 gets crazier? Guess we just watch and see if the talk we are hearing is fiction or becomes fact. All I am saying is that markets could be very volatile this month.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March wheat has resistance at 649 and 660 with support at 627 and 616. KC March wheat has resistance at 604 and 612 with support at 587 and 578.

 

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle futures slid today but this is quite normal for this time of year. It seems the deferred contracts remain more stable with the April weaves. The August contract is still thought to be a good contract under 113. That said, between now and June, my contacts do not expect much for the cash market to rally much but rather remain in a range of 110 to 117. That would seem odd for the cattle market but perhaps a stronger corn market plays a hand in this? Exports should be better, wholesale beef demand should see a surge with restaurants looking to start restocking as weather warms and carcass weights decline. This would imply that April cattle are overvalued at present which is carrying the second largest premium to the cash market on record for the second week of January. The managed funds comprise of 14.7% of the total open interest which is not large at all. Should the April  surprise, we wonder if the August does so more so.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-11-2021.mp3

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Profit taking and liquidation is occurring in grains and soy.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Comment and Livestock for 1-10-2021

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.   515-832-6140

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 10, 2021

 

 

This evening’s opening call is for soybeans to be mixed, corn steady to lower and wheat down 1-2. As we start the new week with the WASDE Supply and Demand, Final Production, and Quarterly Stocks Reports, futures are expected to be weaving tonight and Monday into the reports. These are expected to be volatile reports. More concerning is the return of hot temperatures in Mato Grosso that is forecast to see temps at 100 degrees or higher as we enter the 15th – 17th.

 

Weather has been quite dry over the past month and northern Brazil along with Argentina have experienced increased dryness. This has traders anticipating WASDE will lower production estimates for both Brazil and Argentina. We are not so Intune to that thought. We can see Argentina with decline but Brazil has seemed like a moving target and even though early yields in Mato Grosso for soybeans have been disappointing (18 bpa down from last year) we anticipate very little reduction for Brazil.

 

Southern half of Argentina should see disappointing rainfall and coverage over the next ten days. We recall years of drought in Argentina and they tended to last more than one year.

 

This week’s trade is quite important and more important is the month of February.  First, WAVE 4 on July corn is 512.  Now, a break from these levels that we have discussed would be a positive factor is setting up the rest of the move for this year.  Do I expect us to fill the corn gaps this year? NO! Enjoy this rally and please check your emotions at the door. The last half of 2021 may be seasonally bearish!

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     We did not give the daily update on livestock on Friday evening due to our granddaughter playing her senior varsity basketball game and we were able to go this time as Covid rules for schools had been pretty stringent but this was no ordinary game. Our granddaughter would receive her award and recognition for making 1,000 baskets. Yes, grandpa and grandma are quite proud not to mention she will go into college as a sophomore.

 

The Goldman Roll started on Friday with little fanfare and will continue for four more trading days. Slaughter data shows this past week’s processing was up 1.2% from a year ago for the same period. That said, some of our contacts indicate that we may still have some numbers to work through but, the view as we head into summer remains optimistic and especially for the fourth quarter focusing on October live cattle.

 

Export data for the month of November was released on Friday and showed beef exports to China were up 640% compared to the year before. We are not surprised as Australian beef exports to China have slowed as has other exports of commodities coming from Australia. Boxed beef ended Friday up $0.99 at $206.80 for choice and select was up a mere ten cents at $196.69. We expect the boxed beef to firm in the coming two weeks. Movement was 118 boxes and 20 trim.

 

It comes as no surprise to hear me talk about the 70s being replayed in grains with the “Great Grain Robbery” but this time may be on steroids with both US and Brazil experiencing huge Chinese demand for not only grains but soybeans! I started talking about this in the spring of 2019 as a possibility and here we are. Then Covid-19 hit and again I cautioned that due to Covid disrupting timely delivery of food along with other raw commodities and protests occurring around the world, we would see the “just in time inventorying” that replaced storage reserves back in the mid-90s would not be so sexy anymore and we would see the world return to the building of reserves of food in efforts to control and keep masses peaceful. This is starting to occur, and it will not only be grains and soy but also veg oils and meats/protein. This could also push the fake meat industry.

 

Regardless, the world is watching the US and as this country comes out of Covid and the economy percolates, so will the rest of the world. That said, President Trump’s endeavors to bring back industries from Asia and other parts of the world to the US should push wages higher as industries along with restaurants compete for workers. We have already seen some of that before Covid hit. This helps to build tax income for the government but also put more money in people’s pockets and when this occurs, they eat better and usually enjoy steak. Due to Covid, younger generations and city dwellers became acquainted first-hand with the need for freezers and this is a trend that will not go away. Demand for beef and other meats will only become stronger. Meats are cheap. In my opinion, we are reliving the 70s all over again. In the 70s, I became acquainted with some wonderful mentors and many quotes from the 70s is now at play again. I have been sharing those when they become apparent. In the 70s we had inflation and a saying was the “three Ss” were used as a hedge against inflation. There were soybeans, silver, and sugar.  Sugar is cheap and will become in greater use for energy as we go forward but also for use as raw sugar. There are two gaps at 5120 to 5320 and another at 5920 to 6120.  The later is from 1974. We will be starting to cover sugar in the Platinum level.

 

The money supply in M1 is increasing as people staying home have been paying off credit cards and lowering debt. This too is going to add to the round of inflation when they start to feel confident and spend. For now, a growing money supply does not have to imply inflation but could be protectionist and short term deflationary? But the other side of the coin is going to start appearing in the last half of 2021. Will the media help? We think so. Back to exports. This week’s data for November was the highest in the past year.

 

Data also showed weights this past week had declined and should this continue it will lower beef production.  We also review that beef cow slaughter in the last half of 2020 was the highest in 8 years and we have to keep an eye on weather going through 2021’s summer but as we move into 2022, out gurus predict a surge in drought that should have attention and could continue to accentuate the loss of cows. Still, a year ago the cow herd declined for the first time in 6 years. If, we are correct in our assessment of this fall being a high time for cattle prices then, what about April 2022 cattle? We also question that if the cow slaughter is so strong, then we have to believe heifer retention is probably in decline?

 

This thought adds to another thought or question. A client told me on Friday that he had to add money into his coffee investments in Costa Rica. This was due to tourism being non-existent. But, think about the rest of the world in tourism, I suspect it has been likewise there as well. This will be a change coming. Coffee?

 

A preview of our indicators. Basis the daily chart of March feeders, the TRx is positive. The floater is 7% negative, and the timer is 11% negative. The inner-day 60-minute floater is 78% negative and the timer is 97% positive.   However, on the flipside, the inner-day 180 floater is positive, the floater is 51% positive and the timer is 7%  positive. The stochastic has also turned higher at 27% higher on the D and the K is at 33%.  The 15 minute inner day has turned higher on all three indicators. The floater is 45% positive. The timer is 5% positive, and the TRx is positive. We look for a stronger market on Monday. Lower grains and soy?

 

 

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info, LLC’s research department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations
should not be considered a solicitation. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named.

The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst may have any positions in these products. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-8-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 7, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

Corn:  Recommend making 15% old crop cash sales at 508 basis the March contract.

 

 

WEATHER:

 

 

 

CORN:     Perhaps I am expecting too much or a bit impatient, but today’s trade in corn was a bit disappointing.  Still, I anticipate that March futures will trade fully at 508 and perhaps closer to the 514.75 Wave 4.  After all, this should not be asking the world when this market has “huge” gaps overhead that we should try to push into but probably not fill this year? We expect a response to the Wave 4 count on the March contract futures. This should then set up ability to project new counts for 2021. We note the monthly lead contract indicators are not overbought but the Bullish Consensus is at 78%.  Basis the lead contract of corn, the high of 2014 is 519.5 and the high of the March continuous high in 2014 was 523.  We share that prices are over the upper Bollinger Band and values are into the second month of being there. Looking at history, 2-3 months is about all values were able to stay above the upper Bollinger Band. This would fit in with the Wave 4 count to offer a correction to own as we move forward.

 

Traders are looking ahead to next Tuesday’s USDA reports and anticipate a reduction to the 2020/21 crop while, a weakening US Dollar entices global buyers when the Argentine and Ukrainian corn is unavailable for current month supply.  Funds were noted buyers of corn today.

 

US ethanol demand is struggling but for how long? However, going forward, exporters are said to be anticipating a rise in Chinese interest. US Gulf offers for February were firm today at $1.10 per bushel over the March futures for the first half of the month and $1.05 over the futures for the second half. Note, the Argentine export restrictions on corn are expected to be expired on March 1st unless weather amplifies concerns in February. With so much discontent in Argentina via farmers and unions, there is rhetoric that Argentine government may elect to drop the restrictions on corn this coming week as official stock data showed close to 10 MMT stored in domestic warehouses. Reaching the Wave 4 counts coinciding with the change in export restrictions should that occur would offer reason for a correction in March corn.

 

Prices in Romanian corn were stronger with demand surfacing from Egypt with a trade made for spot shipment.

 

For Sunday night and Monday, March corn has resistance at 500 and 503 with support at 493 and 489. For the coming week, resistance is 507 and 517 with support at 483 and 469. Cycle window timing for next Thursday.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans held true to the old saying that we have been repeating often and closed near the week’s high. March soybeans reached our objective of 1386 and did catch technical selling. We admit that history has shown soybeans tend to push aggressively through $13 and upwards towards $15. However, we have to caution as this has only occurred two times in history and that history only goes back to 2007/08 and 2011/12 and one time from $13 to $14.55 area in 2010.  Never say never in commodities and while the past behavior since 2007 has indicated soybeans tend to move from $12 to $14.55 or $15 before a correction occurs, we note soybeans on weekly data is grossly overbought. Still, we do not feel the true annual high has been seen yet in soybeans but it is all how we get there. We should also draw attention to the behavior in soybeans “lead contract” that in 2007/08 soybeans fell from the high of 1571 to a low of 1106.5 in very quick fashion of a month and a few days and then returned to a rally effort to finish moving to the ultimate high for the year.

 

In 2010/11, the lead contract peaked at 1455.75 and fell in a month and a few days to 1270 but futures spent the rest of the year chopping around and even trying to retest the high but failed and fell again to a final low of 1094.25 before another rally ensued in 2012.

 

In 2011/12, the lead contract pushed upwards to 1509 from 1094 and fell a month and a few days to a low of 1317.5 before ensuing to the ultimate rally high. Note, these rallies do not have to move straight forward for the high and then totally top. So, if long this market, one needs to ask “am I comfortable with a potential slide of the historical magnitude that could occur?” We are friendly towards the May soybean contract and have a roadmap that we will be very watchful of. We are sharing the monthly soybean lead contract chart for your perusal. Note how the Bollinger Bands are spread apart like jaws. This too is a caution sign.

 

 

Private exporters reported a sale of 204 tmt of soybeans to China for 2020/21. It is thought much of this sale traded earlier this week out of the PNW for shipments in August.

 

Futures pushed higher today on short covering into the weekend but also on anticipation of further cuts to world soybean stocks for 2020/21 with the average guess for US soybean stocks at 134 million bushels or down 8% from the WASDE estimate in December. The sale of soybeans to China specific rather than unknown destinations also helped push this market up to the 1386 gap area.

 

Cash markets in the Port of Paranagua slipped a few cents per bushel today. One shipment for June was traded at 73 cents per bushel over the July futures on a FOB Paranagua basis.

 

We end the week with word that markets were slower in China with buying interest slowing.

 

For Sunday night and Monday, March soybeans have resistance at 1393 and 1407 with support at 1356 and 1333. For the coming week, resistance is 1407 and 1437 with support at 1323 and 1269. Major cycle window of time on the 14th.

 

 

WHEAT:     It is that time of year when wheat flounders but this market has also shared in new highs this week. That said, wheat futures ended the week in a mix affair.

 

Japan’s ag ministry bought 120,228 mt of milling wheat from the US, Australia, and Canada for February through March shipment.

 

South Korea’s MFG feed group passed on their tender to buy 65 tmt of feed wheat for May through June shipment as prices offered were considered just too high. That said, the world may be awakening to the fact that there just isn’t any cheap feed wheat around.

 

Canadian weekly grain exports were up 25% year over year.

 

Bottom line, over the past few monthly reports, wheat was the late comer to friendly news and traders anticipate WASDE will reduce ending stocks again.  We also note, with the Argentine corn group offering a proposal to guarantee the supply of corn to the domestic market in return for authorities re-opening the export registry as the sector wishes to capitalize on high global corn prices and repair some of the damage done to Argentina’s largest customers in trading relations, we may see this effort thwart the talk of wheat export restrictions from occurring.

 

For Sunday night and Monday, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 647 and 655 with support at 632 and 625.  For the coming week, resistance is 654 and 670 with support at 628 and 618.

 

KC March wheat resistance is 602 and 609 with support at 587 and 579 with weekly resistance at 611 and 628 with support at 582 and 570.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     We will update livestock over the weekend on Sunday morning.

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-8-21.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

The date on this morning’s commentary should read  1-08-21.mp3.  Vacillating grains and soy continues.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-7-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 7, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

Corn:  Recommend making 15% old crop cash sales at 508 basis the March contract.

 

 

 WEATHER:     This afternoon’s forecast is drier for Argentina and southern Brazil in the longer term forecast which is also accompanied with heat. That said, a drier forecast is also in store for northern Brazil into January 20th.

 

 

The Argentine Grain Inspectors Union ended their strike today and certifying of cargoes was starting to take place.

 

 

CORN:     Corn futures closed down minimally and today’s close looks good.  Corn export sales were less to end the last week of 2020 than traders anticipated at 749 tmt with the range of guesses at 600 tmt to 1.2 MMT. Still, this past week’s sales were higher than last year’s holiday week sales at 29.5 million bushels compared to 6.4 million bushels.

 

This coming Tuesday we will see the release of NASS’s final yield and production for 2020 along with Supply and Demand numbers and the Quarterly Stocks via WASDE. Usually, quarterly stocks come out at the end of the month but not so this time.

 

The 2020 corn yield has slipped from August to September, into October, into November, and traders are looking for another slip again in the Final number. There was a decline in yield of 3.3 bpa in September, a decline of 0.2 bushels per acre in October, and a surprising 2.6 bpa drop in November. Since 1970, there have been 6 other years that followed a similar path of yield reductions with the past four being 1993, 1995, 2000, and 2010. Note, we have been using the year of comparison this past year to the year of 2010/11. The January 2011 crop report showed another decline of 3 bushels to the acre decline. We do not anticipate that sizeable reduction for corn but we do anticipate a reduction of less than 1 bpa. Also looking at a couple other years of 1983 and the year of 1970 we note yields in the final report declined by 0.6 and 1.6 bpa respectively.

 

Note, any surprises in the production within the Final production report will feed into the Quarterly Stocks report and then into the Supply and Demand reports as we move through the first quarter. While, corn ending stocks are tightening, they are not quite as concerning as the soybean ending stocks. We look for a very volatile trading session on Tuesday. In the past 7 years, the January corn crop estimate was below market expectations in 5 of the 7 years. Last year’s 179 million bushel increase was higher than expected and the largest increase in 10 years. That may set the stage for this year to follow the path of history rather than last year.

 

In the first quarter of the new marketing year, exports of corn have been solid at 450 million bushels versus last year’s dismal 270 million bushels. However, ethanol usage is expected to have slipped a bit compared to last year’s first quarter usage with Covid-19 slowing demand but a flattening out of the recovery is clearly a viable expectation.

 

Since feed usage accounts for half of the first quarter’s usage, this number may be a big unknown since hog numbers were not as high as forecast via the quarterly hogs and pigs reports with evidence of euthanizing of pigs becoming evident. Hog numbers declined 1% nationwide for the quarter while the broiler hatch during September to November was 1.2% below the year previous. However, through that same period, cattle feeding remained solid in September to October but did start to slip in November and ended the year unchanged with 2019. Corn usage for the first quarter may hover pretty close to that of 2019 at 4.550 billion bushels.  So, through it all, usage could be down a bit to offset much of a reduction in yield? In the November Supply and Demand report, corn did not get much of a bullish push but that is about to be different with exports picking up and anticipation of ethanol usage looking at a better price positive year. Still, this could be data forthcoming in futures S&D reports.

 

The average guess for corn yield is 175.3 bpa compared to the previous USDA estimate of 175.8 bpa.

 

The December 1st Quarterly Corn Stock estimate is 11.951 billion bushels and compares to last year’s 11.327 billion bushels.

 

Bottom line, corn held very well and honestly, we would have to expect resistance to the $5 level the first time futures try to push. For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 498 and 501 with support at 489 and 483.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     The saying of “up Monday, up Tuesday, up every day of the week except one” appears today was the corrective day. Guess we will know tomorrow. That said, in old bull bean markets, a rule of thumb is to buy the first day’s lower close or day and half break.  Actually, soybeans closing down 6.25 cents basis the March contract was a decent close.  Adding to the break for the day was the weekly export sales report that showed China cancelling soybeans of 347 tmt and switches of previously reported sales to unknown destinations and South Korea of 462 tmt. It appeared that there were cancellations of sales to unknown destinations of nearly 117 tmt. Since, soybeans is into a demand driven market, futures responded but sure could have been tougher. For now, soybean sales are 91.6% of the USDA forecast for 2020/21 and there are nearly 8 months to go.

 

Soybean meal sales were 124 tmt which was down from the 162 tmt per week average this market needs to follow to reach the USDA forecast for 2020/21.

 

Differently that corn, we anticipate a yield increase in next Tuesday’s report. While, our road map for corn was that of 2010/11 this past 5 months, in soybeans we had anticipated the year to follow a path closer to 1980 and that occurred. That year, yields fell from August to September, unchanged into October, and down in November. In the final, the yield increased 0.4 bpa. We were quite dry in our area and yields for soybeans crop to crop with corn seemed to fare better. We were not in the derecho and even in those areas corn took the hit worse. Looking at historical data, the January revisions to yield were minimal.

 

Exports have been good but will WASDE increase exports in this report as we move closer to Brazilian harvest? On the flip side, we note that the crush has continued to be stellar. The crush is expected to be increased. This could offset a yield increase to some degree.

 

Biodiesel demand should be expecting a surge as we move forward but like ethanol usage, this could be a number to watch in future reports.

 

December 1st soybean stocks are expected to come in well below that of last year and could be the lowest in 5 years. In fact, September to November usage could be down sharply from the year before and possibly the lowest on record. Still, a yield increase will help counter the end result of ending stocks being reduced sharply in the S&D report. The average trade guess for ending stocks is 136 million bushels compared to the last report of 175 million bushels.

 

Coming into these reports, the current stocks-to-usage ratio is printed at 3.9% with the record low of 2.6% made in 2013/14. We can come up with potential to move to a 1.9% but, in 2013/14 the market moved into down trends as traders noted better crops in the fall and this year’s stocks-to-usage ratio is running precariously low much earlier in the crop year and we have a Chinese Grain/Soy Robbery at hand in two countries. However, this year is a year of two tales. Don’t forget, China’s obligation to Phase One ends this year. For now, we remain in the bullish side of the story.

 

December 1st soybean stocks have come in below the average trade guess in 9 of the past 11 years and last year’s report was the 2nd largest bearish surprise on record at 65 million bushels higher than expected. This year appears to us that soybean stocks may be lower than expected as of December 1st. Average trade guess is 2.920 billion bushels and compares to last year at 3.252 billion bushels.

 

We have discussed the years similar to the path the past 5 months have taken for soybeans and noted out of the 8 years, 6 went onto make higher highs in October, November, December, and January. Several of those six years saw the January contract expire at or near their highs on expiration day. Note, that day is January 14th and our cycle window of time.

 

We are turning focus to May soybeans. Will the top be hit in January? We think not. May soybeans have a pattern set that should push higher into February at the earliest. We suspect that higher highs will be seen after January. In a cycle count, soybeans lead contract has been up 8 months and markets tend to like odd numbers but this is not why we are still friendly towards soybeans as we move towards spring. Since 1960, there are 9 other years that this year is following a similar path. In the past (no guarantee for future results) the May contract tended to move higher after January in all of those 9 other years. There were two times the high came in February, 3 times in April, once in March, and 3 times in May. We also note, if the high came in February the prices fell into May but that is not the main path.  The least amount of rally to the ultimate high was 4.8%,  which was in February but most years had a much higher percentage. A break in the market in January would be a nice setup. We will be talking about this path going forward more often.

 

We share, the July soybean has potential for an added setup but we need to move into February before we can entertain that one. This year is exciting in that soybeans, corn and wheat all have paths that are complimenting each other.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1370 and 1383 with support at 1343 and 1329.

 

 

WHEAT AND LIVESTOCK WILL BE COVERED IN FRIDAY’S COMMENTARY.

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-6-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 5, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

Corn:  Recommend making 15% old crop cash sales at 508 basis the March contract.

 

 

 WEATHER:    

 

 

 

CORN:     March corn breached $5 and pushed a high of 502.75 and closed in the lower half of the day’s range. We suggest longs take some profits off the table as we push for 508 which is a .38 retracement for the lead contract from the 2012 high to the 300.25 low. We have mentioned the 515 Wave 4 count basis March corn specific and we correct the 519 2014 high as it is 523. While, we do not think the ultimate highs are here, (it is all how we get there) we do look for a testy correction from the 515 area and note, we do not have to hit it squarely. We suggest using the 38% retracement and leave the other 7 cents to those that are willing to risk greatly. We do believe we will see this before the USDA reports on next Tuesday.

 

Next Tuesday, we have Final Production by NASS, Supply and Demand by WASDE and Quarterly Stocks Report by WASDE. Use to be the quarterly stocks report would be announced at month’s end but our calendar is showing it next Tuesday. These reports should be market movers.

 

Despite the export restrictions on corn exports in Argentina, new offers were seen for February shipment at $1.45 per bushel over the March futures with bids at $1.25 over per bushel.

 

US Gulf offers were steady today at $1.10 per bushel over the March futures for first half of February shipment. Private exporters reported the sale of 102,216 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations which is believed to be Chinese albeit Mexico has also been an avid buyer of US corn.

 

Perhaps bigger news is that Chinese corn on the Dalian exchange closed into new historical high territory at $10.94 which was up 8 cents. Prices are strengthening on concern of a resurging Covid-19 outbreak.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn resistance is 502 and 508 with support at 491 and 486.

 

 

SOYBEANS :     Soybeans continue to vacillate and fall away from daily highs while closing higher. Up Monday, up Tuesday, up every day of the week except one has us wondering which day this will be? The gap to 1387 remains unfilled and we note, prices do not have to go there right now.  Still, we anticipate we will become closer. That said, we also note, taking the high of 2014 and the low of 780.5 for a lead soybean contract, a .786 percent retracement is in the 1375 area and that has been achieved. This type of retracements are a common characteristic for soybeans.

 

Soybeans have been blessed with support being derived from both soymeal and soyoil demand at the same time. Honestly, I cannot remember the last time this occurred. In China, Covid-19 cases are on the rise in Hebei Province with disruptions to the ability to truck soymeal to where it is badly needed to feed the rising hog herd is sending Chinese soymeal markets higher. Soymeal closed at the highest level in 4 ½ years overnight.  

 

In the US, soy movement seems pretty quiet with the FOB market for February shipment out of the Gulf unchanged at $1.01 per bushel over the March futures. There is talk that China is buying soybeans out of the PNW. There are also reports of short hedges being covered amid escalating margin calls. If so, then this market is also seeing longs liquidate on the rallies. Open interest will be telling. Funds are said to have added another 30,000 contracts on Tuesday while, adding 25,000 contracts to both corn and wheat?

 

Argentine dryness is said to be expanding from 33% to 40% over the next week and Commodity Weather Group forecasts dry areas will expand into over 50% of crop areas by end of January. February will be a critical month. Meanwhile, Brazilian drier areas are 15 to 20% with rains forecast to shift from south to north next week but longer term forecast indicate this could grow to 33% of the crop being in dry dirt by month’s end.

 

Fresh strikes in Argentina are planned for January 11-13 by the Urgara Union but, talks restarted late this afternoon in hopes of avoiding further strikes. Other farmer groups, CRA, FAA, and Rural Society have confirmed they will mount protests while suspending sales of grain and livestock for three days. This type of measures may have little consequences. Another group, Coninagro has said they will not participate in the strikes. Basis premiums for soyoil jumped 10-30 points on continued short covering with Malaysian palm oil reaching new highs. As for processing, some of the oil extraction plants are at a standstill and many of them are working with an incomplete load.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1377 and 1389 with support at 1353 and 1341.  Major cycle window timing due next week on Thursday the 14th.

 

 

WHEAT:      Margins increased overnight and offered a small correction as we hit mid-week.  The 665 basis the lead contract of Chicago wheat also offered wave count resistance.

 

Rumors that the Argentine government was considering applying export restrictions on wheat following their move on corn had farmers upset and exporters and cash traders accelerating to acquire wheat export registrations on rising concerns the government might just follow through on the talk. In the past two days, 1.43 MMT of wheat had been registered for export which is 38% higher than the total registrations during the November and December period. Comparing to the first few days in January 2020, this year’s registrations is much higher. The total new crop wheat volume registered for export has reached 7.2 MMT and the Rosario Board of Trade estimates the country will export a total of 9.6 MMT of wheat over the current marketing year.

 

The increase in registrations and market sentiment has pushed domestic wheat offers in Argentina nearly $3 per metric tonne higher freight on board Up River. Prices pushing higher comes as the country is dealing with rampant inflation but this is also a prevalent concern around the world as food inflation continues to rise and countries start to become protectionist and hold back supplies as efforts to revisit old times when countries building reserves were common. That  habit became extinct in the 90’s as “just in time inventorying”  became vogue.

 

We believe the Argentine government is killing two birds with one stone. Keeping reserves on hand for a just in case time and also saving berth room to load ships with higher taxed exports of soymeal, soyoil, and soybeans makes better fiscal sense. Obviously, farmer groups are not happy with the talk and of course the latest decision of restricting corn exports until March 1st. Farmers prefer to hold soybeans as a hedge against inflation while saving money and seeing more income by selling corn and wheat at lower taxation to the commercial. Farmers pay the taxes. Rural groups have threatened to block sales of grains in protest.

 

Bangladesh’s state-controlled importer has announced a third tender for 50 tmt of milling wheat.  However, many of the global markets were quiet today.

 

We continue to like breaks in wheat to pursue long length. Have you noticed how quiet the breaks are becoming in wheat? A major cycle window of time is due next week on Thursday.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat resistance is 656 and 665 with support at 642 and 637.  KC March wheat has resistance at 613 and 619 with support at 601 and 595.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle futures traded both sides of Tuesday’s close but managed to push higher while feeders closed lower but near the upper end of the day’s range. News was quiet today but technically, the charts appear to be pushing the upper constraints of a head and shoulders bottom. This should be a positive sign? Still, the product has had a nice rebound as we anticipate the coming two weeks to be stronger as we head into Valentine’s Day and many celebrate at home. Export demand is expected to surge and we note, producers are feeling pinched when it comes to feed costs. This longer term should cause lighter carcass weights. This also should come at a time when people are becoming vaccinated and the media shuts off the “negative” news and offers a more positive outlook. The media did an excellent job in getting the masses to listen to news of Covid and now they will work their magic in the other direction towards optimism.

 

Technically, cattle indicators are negative and remain as such but the inner-day indicators are tipped positive. However, we share the May feeder cattle indicators. The floater is 18% negative, the timer is 28% negative and the TRx is turning neutral. The stochastic remains negative at 51% on the D and the K is 29 %. This appears it may have more time to kill or deteriorate. The weekly floater is 83% positive with the timer 62% positive and the TRx neutral to negative. This is basis the continuous May feeder chart.

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-6-21.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Good Morning!  Soybeans and corn push back to new highs but what does the volatility tell us?


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Comment for 1-5-2021

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 5, 2021

 

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

 

This afternoon’s commentary is brief due to an appointment out of town.

 

 

WEATHER:

 

 

 

CORN:     Futures ran back towards the 496 level in efforts to push out the Monday high of 497.  Basis the March corn weekly chart, 495 is a wave 3 but we are more focused on the daily Wave 4 at 515. It would not surprise us if this market pushed to that level into the USDA reports next Tuesday. We anticipate a pull back at that level and will share that at some point this year, we expect to see futures on a lead contract test 455.5.  For now, that is probably a bit off in time.

 

Talk abounds today that China is in our market to buy corn.

 

The latest ENSO model run by NOAA and US National Climate Prediction Center indicates the current moderately strong La Nina event will weaken in the next few months but may not completely abate. This reinforces concerns for possible dryness to evolve in North America and Russia during the 2021 growing season. Interestingly, it also tends to imply that there is still potential for dryness to become more significant in 2022 than in 2021. Stay tune.

 

La Nina is suspected to be very near its peak intensity today. The SOI has risen to a high of +18.25 which is the highest the index has been at any time during this La Nina event! The strongly positive SOI has been closely associated with the recent flooding rainfall in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines as well as the dryness in Argentina. We should add the rains falling in northern India is also strongly associated with the SOI. Rains are forecast for South Africa in the next few weeks which is number 5 exporter of corn globally.

 

Due to a relationship of La Nina events and the solar minimum, the expectation is that weak La Nina conditions may linger during late spring and summer this year followed by a strengthening La Nina event later in the calendar year.  This may help to bring some timely rainfall in the summer of 2021 but will set the stage for some drying in later summer and into 2022.  This forecast very well fits with our outlook going into summer and through the last half of 2021for corn prices.

 

Brazilian corn exports during December were 5 MMT and this was higher than November and last year’s December exports of 4.16 MMT. This was the second highest exports for a December behind 2015’s 6.26 MMT. This spells a tightening supply for Brazilian corn.

 

Bottom line, we expect corn to follow the soybeans but overall should push for the 508-515 level. Taking out 519 should open the door for better optimism. Cycle window timing due next week on the 14th.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Volatility is key as we work through this week. The old saying “up Monday, up Tuesday, up every day of the week except one” is back in play this week. Futures fell into the close but this market should still push higher into the gap objective of 1387.  Try not to get caught up in the emotion of a rising market.

 

We thought it interesting that the Malaysian Palm Oil Council forecasts Indonesian production to rise to 45 MMT from 43 MMT last year. However, exports are forecast to fall by 500 tmt year over year! Malaysian palm oil production is forecast to see a gain to 19.6 MMT or up 200 tmt from that of last year. Exports are forecast to increase. That said, biodiesel production is expected to keep stocks low and just below 1.5 MMT on a monthly basis.

 

Early soybean harvest has started in Mato Grosso where soybeans were planted very early in hopes of double cropping with cotton. Last year, Mato Grosso had 25% of their crop harvested by end of January but this won’t be the case this year. Progress is expected to be much slower this January.

 

While we believe the yield for soybeans will improve, we think usage has not slowed as yet. We are targeting 1386 area and will relook at the market then. Caution is advised once we hit that target.

 

 

WHEAT:     As all these markets push to new contract highs, we note willingness by some to bank profits with a report close by. Wheat rallied on news of Ethiopia cancelling 600 tmt of wheat purchased last November due to traders on the sell side not coming through with performance bonds after the contracts were signed. These regional traders won the tenders due to prices offered being well below those of mainstream trading firms in Russia. Russian wheat was expected to be the country of origin but failure to provide bonds caused concern for Ethiopia that the wheat would not be delivered.

 

We continue to like wheat on breaks but the 665 area could pose some hesitation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 1-5-21.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans reverse Monday’s efforts with an inside range thus far.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 1-4-2021

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.   515-832-6140

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

January 4, 2021

 

Thoughts for FCI’s first commentary of 2021:     Hello and welcome to Flight 2021. We are prepared to take off into the New Year. Please make sure your Positive Attitude and Gratitude are secured and locked in upright position. All self-destruct devices, pity, anger, selfishness, and resentment should be turned off at this time. All negativity, hurt, and discouragement should be put away. Should you lose your positive attitude under pressure during this flight, reach up and pull down a prayer. Prayers will automatically be activated by Faith. Once your Faith is activated, you can assist other passengers who are of little faith. There will be NO BAGGAGE allowed on this flight. God, our captain has cleared us for take-off. Destination—-GREATNESS! Wishing you a New Year filled with new HOPE, new JOY, and new BEGINNINGS! Stay blessed and welcome to 2021.

 

 

Anticipation that funds from equities will transition away and move into commodities seemed plausible today with the CRB starting the new year with a gap higher. Looking in the rear-view mirror, lumber was the largest winner in 2020 with gains of 68%, silver up 47%, soymeal up 43%.and soybeans gained 39%. The losers were energies with heating oil down 27%, crude oil down 21%, and RBOB down 17%. 

 

More importantly, the traders’ focus will be on the Georgia elections tomorrow that is carrying high stakes and the Dow correction today is said to be liquidation on concern of a Democratic win that would shore-up the House and Senate by a small margin to push through Biden’s agenda that would include higher taxation but potentially offer a larger stimulus package.

 

 

WEATHER:     Argentine weather remains hot and dry with dry areas expanding to 50% of the crop areas while, Brazilian dry areas continue to stagnate at 15 to 20% for the short term but, by late January, it is forecast to expand to 33% of Brazilian crop areas.

 

 

CORN:     March corn pushed within 2.75 cents of $5 corn  values today but found willing profit taking and fell lower on the day albeit not by much. March corn closed down one-fourth of a cent and May on forward closed higher. We look for a weaker start to this evening, but we do not expect much of a sizeable break with the USDA reports looming a week from tomorrow on Tuesday.  We suspect futures wallow and offer another push higher into the report. Who would wish to be short into the January reports? The trade remains concerned over shrinking South American production prospects while, China seems interested in ramping up corn buying and shared today via the ag ministry that Chinese corn acreage would expand this coming season. No surprise there as $10.60 plus corn prices is quite enticing for the Chinese farmer. Corn production has declined for 5 consecutive years in China and declined 8% last year to 113 million acres. That is interesting since not only did corn acreage decline but the crop was dealt a tough blow via heavy rains and horrific flooding.

 

It is expected that WASDE will trim Argentine corn production and exports but we suspect WASDE may be a bit softer on the trimming than what traders are dialing in. We add, traders will be even more cognizant of US December 1st corn stocks to see if USDA reduces them similar to the September quarterly stocks when corn stocks fell 255 million bushels below the average trade guess. We do not look for much trimming of ethanol usage but look for exports to remain large and feed usage may be trimmed slightly. It mostly will come down to the yield. Will NASS increase the yield or reduce it. We believe NASS will reduce the corn yield slightly in this report similar to the year of 2010 when yields fell from August to September, again in October and November only to be reduced again in the January final.

 

Argentine corn planting is estimated at 81%  which compares to 82% last year at this time and 78% in the 5-year average.

 

Prices for corn delivered into Vietnam have spiked higher with worries over the impact of supply disruptions in Argentina and firmer global corn prices in general. Corn demand for prompt delivery for corn into Vietnam is strong with prices hitting their highest since June 2019. Vietnam typically imports around 11.5 MMT of corn per year to feed a large pork, poultry, and aquaculture industry.

 

Globally, we look for corn stocks to decline. Meanwhile, domestic US CIF Gulf corn basis ended the day quite strong on rumors of Chinese buying. US corn is dirt cheap and just pushing out of the sideways range bound affair it has been in since 2014. Taking out the 519 area would be finally saying good bye to the last benchmark of resistance for the sideways range this market has been in.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 496 and 502 with support at 477 and 464.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     March soybeans pushed at the 1350 level before giving up the day’s gain but managed to pull off a higher close across the board. We look for another effort to push today’s lows but suspect this market does not fall far.  We do not believe the high is in. Traders will keep an eye on CIF basis which remained steady to start the  day but ended strong and watch for end users of soymeal and soy oil stalling on forward coverage. The year is just getting started and at some point the end users may wish to take a chance and see if time offers an opportunity for better pricing. For now, the US remains in the arena for sales and demand. The crush has yet to slow.

 

Silver and gold enjoyed a sharply higher day on inflationary incentives and concerns over the Georgia elections on Tuesday. Like silver, soybeans are also used as a hedge against inflation when it comes to funds. In the 70s, it was the “3 S’s”.  Soybeans, silver, and sugar and not necessarily in that order.

 

Argentina saw another negotiation in strikes today with grain inspectors union. Get one end a working and another breaks down. It is thought an agreement could be reached today but nothing out yet.

 

Argentine soybean planting is estimated at 90% complete which compares to the 5-year average of 85% and last year at 86%.  Could this be a sign of dryness?

 

The US produced 160 million gallons of biodiesel in October compared to 159 million gallons in September and 144 million gallons in October 2019. Soy oil used for biodiesel production in October was 723 million pounds and was down from 737 million pounds used in September but up sharply from 558 million pounds used in 2019 during October.

 

Tonight, we look for soybeans to push today’s low out and trade lower with resistance at 1341 and 1369 with support at 1293 and 1273 via the March contract. Keep in mind, a gap remains unfilled to 1386.5/1387 basis March.

 

 

WHEAT:     While a weaker day for wheat, prices did not fall far. Argentine wheat exports for 2019/20 were second largest on record.

 

This market is void of news. Weekly export inspections since the start of 2020/21 marketing year on June 1st is down 0.2% year over year at 14.9 MMT. However, exports were slower still for the EU which in the final week of 2020 saw exports decline 15% compared to the previous year for the same period.

 

A major cycle window is due January 14th and a dip into this window would offer a buying opportunity.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 651 and 678 with support at 635 and 626.  KC March wheat has resistance at 611 and 621 with support at 594 and 587.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     We have to share the seasonal from Moore Research worked again. The buy April live cattle on December 9th and sell the second trading day of January worked like gang busters this year again. This has worked 16 out of the past 16 years. Cattle caught selling and fell hard today with the pressure mostly up front but all contracts were down hard. Feeders were the leader but fats caught up and it seems the market may be showing concern over higher corn prices? We have encouraged livestock produces to book feed needs well into 2021 and we again suggest on any breaks to take another look for feed costs to be secured in the first half of the year. Beyond that we would not wish to be a buyer!

 

It may be that the seasonal January break is about to start or has already started but honestly, we think cattle will not be so sad once we move closer to mid-February. That said, we have two cycle windows of time for cattle which is the 14th and 29th.  These should offer good volatility as these are worked on just that.

 

We continue to like the deferred October live cattle on this break but honestly, we have our eye on August as well. The daily floater is at 51% negative and the timer is 83% negative. The TRx is negative as well.

 

August live cattle closed at 112.65 and around the 112 area should find some good support? Beside this contract, it appears that the next two months could see cash become a flat market with large premiums built in up front. In fact, the spread between the Five Area Weighted Average Steer price and April futures is $8 per cwt and the second widest on record for this time of year?

 

With Valentines Day over a month away, beef should try to rally in the next three weeks should it not? Also, managed money is coming into the market and the chart has a bullish or at least a friendly formation so, I suspect they will entertain the long side. So, over the next three weeks, should April futures reach towards 122 we will be watchful for selling behavior as again we think the cash market could be flat for the next few months. After that, we look for futures to come to life and entertain a push higher.

 

All that said, our focus is truly on the daily charts and we will follow our indicators as they tend to work quite well in cattle.

 

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info, LLC’s research department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations
should not be considered a solicitation. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named.

The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst may have any positions in these products. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Weekend Commentary for 12-31-2020

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

December 31, 2020

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 

 

WEATHER:     As we end the year of 2020, Argentina has been in the spotlight for adverse weather in South America. What will 2021 have in store for Argentine crops? Currently, moisture stress is expected to run quite high over the coming week with temperatures trending warmer once again and rainfall continues to be limited. There may be an opportunity for rain to evolve in the latter part of next week and into the following weekend. However, this chance of rain will be followed with a ridge of high pressure possibly developing temporarily. The expectation remains unfriendly for Argentina’s crop development into the 12th of January. World Weather, Inc., looks for a weakening La Nina and a falling Southern Oscillation Index in late January that may offer some potential timely rain, but it may also be February before rainfall becomes better in a more sustainable manner.

 

Brazilian weather over the coming 30 days will be classical La Nina with abundant rain in center south crop areas and below average precipitation in the far south. A strong positive Southern Oscillation Index continues today reflecting the moderately strong La Nina event that continues to dominate the world. La Nina is peaking, but it will take a while for the phenomenon to weaken enough to allow a change in the weather to take place in South America. The earliest that weather patterns could change enough to bring a better rain event into Argentina would be in the last half of the month if not the last week of January.

 

Swinging temperatures at this time of year can only occur when the air and soil is very dry. A ridge of high pressure is forecast to build up over Argentina in this coming week ending much of the precipitation potential and allowing temperatures to soar back to the 90s and over 100 degrees. Such conditions will occur while the ground is very short of moisture and crop stress will continue. There also is a potential for another ridge of high pressure to develop in the week of January 10th to stymie precipitation potentials and once again bring back some hot weather after a brief bout of cooling.

 

Much pressure will be put on February to see that Argentina’s weather may begin to change for the better.  Temperatures in South America will be warmer biased in Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and immediate neighboring areas in southwestern Brazil.

 

During the month of January, Brazil will see frequent rains that should be greater than usual from Tocantins and parts of Goias through Minas Gerais and northern Sao Paulo during the month of January. The far south will deal with more sporadic rain of lighter intensity compared to normal. Rio Grande do Sul and Uruguay will have the most anomalously lighter rainfall during the month.     worldweather@bizkc.rr.com

 

 

We have been asked to share this chart and here it is again. While this pertains to stocks we also can see 2024 as a disappointing year in agriculture but that will be following on the heels of a nicely higher year in 2023 (if, our assessments are correct. Just looking out into the future)

 

 

CORN:     Corn futures ended 2020 with a push to the highest level since 2014 for a lead contract and an outside range year closing on the extreme high.  News on Wednesday afternoon of the Argentine government restricting exports of corn immediately until March 1st was in essence admitting just how dry the country is but we also have to admit, corn exports in Argentina are taxed at 12% while the world’s largest exporter of soymeal and soyoil taxes soybean and soymeal exports at 33%. Now that the strike is over, the focus just may be on getting the higher taxed commodities out the door.  Still, nearly 40% of the country’s corn has yet to be planted and it makes sense the government will prioritize soymeal exports, etc. Regardless, this should turn world buyers of Argentine corn to the US. Some estimate as much as 4 MMT of Argentine corn will switch to the US? Corn on the Dalian exchange closed at new historical highs of 1061.

 

Ukrainian corn prices have pushed firmer and Ukrainian grain exports accounted for 16% of the world grain flows in 2019/2020 marketing year. That said, 2020/21 Ukrainian grain exports are forecast to fall by over 26% from last year to 22.3 MMT. Ukraine is number four exporter of corn in the world.

 

As for US domestic demand or usage, ethanol should start by the end of March to add support for cash corn needs and with a huge cattle inventory of 12.04 million head via data from the December cattle on feed report, feed usage should be decent as well. Will domestic demand compete against exports?

 

Corn saw an outside range year and we went back and looked at all outside range years for lead contracts of corn. Interesting that all saw reversals but quite honestly, there were not many. Still, we notice nearly all years do tend to gravitate to the 3-year average and we will post that average on Monday.

 

We look for March corn to find tough resistance at the 514.75 level and would recommend profit-taking. The next level of resistance target for March corn is 507 and then Wave 4 at 514.75 and the high of 2014 at 519.

 

For Sunday night and Monday, March corn has resistance at 491 and 494 with support at 478 and 468. For the coming week, March corn resistance is 497 and 508 with support at 464 and 442. For the month of January, March corn has resistance at 510 and 533 with support at 439 and 391.  Bullish Consensus is 74% and the highest since September 2012 when the percentage reached 85/86%.  We share the monthly corn chart update by David Toth.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans held firm and continued to push into the gap areas that has been discussed via the Jan and March. Basically, the January filled but March has to 1384.75 to fill its gap.  Unlike corn, soybeans never took out last year’s low and of course closed at the year’s high. The largest share of cash soybeans are in the commercial’s control and usually this is supportive towards prices.

 

News was quiet today but quite honestly, this market has turned its focus back towards weather in Argentina and Brazil.

 

Weekly soybean export sales were at the top end of the range of guesses with solid new crop sales also reported.  As for the products, soybean meal came in at the lower end of the range of guesses while, soy oil sales were higher than expected.

 

The lead contract annual 3 year average is 1046.5 and we suspect the market will test the $11 area to 1085 level sometime this year. For now, we look for the lows in the last half of the year and especially into the fourth quarter.

 

For Sunday night and Monday, March soybeans have resistance at 1323 and 1334 with support at 1297 and 1282.  For the coming week, resistance is 1339 and 1367 with support at 1264 and 1217.  For the month of January, March soybeans resistance is 1373 and 1436 with support at 1195 and 1080. Cycle windows on January 14th and 30th.

 

 

WHEAT:     It seems wheat can handle one good day and then has to rest. Still, futures pulled off a higher close. Fundamentally, a weak US Dollar that has tested the two-and-a-half year lows is offering enticement for competitive US wheat in the export arena.

 

Ukrainian winter wheat crop is appearing to be in better condition that Russia’s crop at this time. Nearly 90% of winter grain crops are said to be in good condition and this leads to analysts calling for a good Ukrainian wheat crop in 2021. Planted area is 15.1 million acres of winter wheat for harvest in the summer of 2021.

 

Due to the strike that was settled this week, slow wheat exports from Argentina is feared to impact flour milling production in Brazil over the coming month.  According to Abitrigo, there are ten Argentine ships that have not been loaded with wheat heading to Brazil during the strike.

 

For March Chicago wheat, resistance is 647 and 651 on Sunday night and Monday with support at 635 and 627.  For the coming week, resistance is 654 and 665 with support at 621 and 599. For the month of January, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 669 and 694 with support at 592 and 540.

 

KC March wheat has resistance at 610 and 614 with support at 598 and 590. For the coming week, resistance is 618 and 630 with support at 582 and 558. For the month, resistance is 631 and 656 with support at 556 and 506.

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     Finally, February lean hogs pushed through resistance today after seeing weekly exports showing good buying. February closed at 270 points higher and settled at 7025. The closing pork wire showed the cutout up sharply by $5.93 at $78.58. Some are indicating fresh pork should be cleaned up this week. The cutout has been stronger every day this week on good volume. We share the February continuous monthly chart below to bring you up to speed.

 

 

With the surge in soymeal and in corn, livestock feeders are starting to realize profit margins have another hurdle to jump and we suspect they will not want to feed hogs heavier. We continue to expect exports to China to push higher and we anticipate numbers to decline into summer. We realize this market has tested our metal but we have kept our site on the longer term chart of lean hogs. Here you go. Note, the trending averages are long and have room to go. We also have yet to reach the upper Bollinger Band that tends to occur when we have made lows in the circled areas.

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 12-31-2020.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Traders trying to dispute bullishness of Argentine government corn export restrictions. Don’t listen.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-30-2020

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

December 30, 2020

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy.

 

 Note, markets will close regular times on New Year’s Eve and will be closed on Friday, New Year’s Day. Markets will open regular times on Sunday evening, January 3rd at 7 pm.  FCI will have a commentary out for the weekend and will release a pre-opening call on Sunday afternoon.

 

WEATHER:     Bitterly cold temperatures pushed deep into northern China overnight with temps well below zero Fahrenheit. Per World Weather, Inc., some of the cold temperatures pushed deeper south touching upon some of the minor winter wheat production areas in northern China. Temperatures in the positive and in “negative” single digits Fahrenheit occurred in snow-free minor production areas raising concerns of possible winterkill. However, damage was not suspected in any key wheat production areas.

 

Temperatures may need to be more closely monitored in the latter part of next week when the next coldest airmass will arrive without significant snowfall. The map below shows where the larger producing areas of wheat are.  That said, cool temperatures will continue in eastern China through the next full week and probably for ten days. Some moderation in the coldest conditions will occur for a little while, but a reinforcing cold shot is expected during the middle to latter part of next week. Snow cover is needed to adequately protect winter crops from threatening cold.

 

The GFS model run has turned a bit wetter for Central Argentina for the latter part of next week. The province of Cordoba is expected to be the main benefactor of rains measuring 1-1.5 inches. More important will be the weekend temperatures that are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s and lower 100s. Argentina crops remain stressed while, weather continues to play tag in Brazil with southern Brazil expected to turn drier but even northern Brazil is seeing some concerns with drying conditions.

 

 

CORN:     What can we say, this market is following through nicely. As of today, March corn as a lead contract has not only seen an outside range year for this individual contract but also has seen an outside range year (key reversal year?) versus 2019 and has also exceeded any contract highs in 2019 when breaching 473. Our next target for March corn is 486 but more important is the Wave 4 count at 514.75. While Wave 4s are not normally that common, this year has been a stellar year for the wave counts. Once we get a more viable correction, after the turn of the year we can then reset price counts and objectives. We remind subscribers of the charts that we have shown in past months of the gaps that were left on specific contract months. FYI, there is a huge gap on March corn at 582.25 to 730 that was left in 2013. This is just one of the gaps on corn, July, September, and December have them as well. Now, the market does not need to fill all that in 2021 but all we can say is grain farmers are looking at some of the best of times in the next three years. The year of 2022 is one that we may need to keep an eye on but we have plenty of time to look at that.  Please note, while we put emphasis on price targets, our real emphasis is on timing of when the highs and lows should come in. The saying, “being at the right place at the right time” is how we wish to address the market in the year ahead. If, we place too much emphasis on price, it becomes too easy to miss the turn.

 

Some of our sources are starting to show concern about potential dryness developing in February and March for the heart of Brazilian corn production. That said, we look for WASDE in the January report to lower production estimates for Argentina. However, we suspect reductions for Brazil may be small.

 

Note:  We hear the government of Argentina has suspended exports of corn which is surprising domestic farmers and adding uncertainty. Another reason for enthusiasm today and this too was stimulating the rally effort today. If so, look for a strong market again tonight and tomorrow.

 

Chinese Dalian corn futures marked a new contract high of 1056.

 

Commercials will have a task of trying to entice the farmer to make cash sales and with anticipation that the economy in 2021 will start to revive is going to create a demand for ethanol and biofuels in general which will also tend to tug on carryout supplies.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 480 and 484 with support at 466 and 456. We remain committed to the bull side of this market. However, it is all how we get there. Cycle window of time is on January 14th, and on January 30th which is a Saturday, so this cycle will probably come in on Friday the 29th.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Due to the large trading range on Tuesday’s rally and announcement of an agreement to end the Argentine strike, soybeans fell backwards to test the 3-day moving average. Note, looking at a chart the market much of the time will trade at the 3-day moving average. As it should have, futures found support and moved higher. January futures are trying to invert to the March.

 

The US Dollar has fallen to new lows today but is nearing a good Wave 4 support just beneath 89.

 

As we move into the new year, we suspect traders alike are looking ahead with anticipation of better days and only too happy to close the books on 2020. Silver and gold look to close the year out strong and soybeans have always been tied to inflation as a hedge. This is especially so in Argentina. Crushers and commercials are excited to have the strike end with nearly 160 vessels waiting to load but, it will take time to get up-to-speed. The next block they will deal with is getting the farmer to part with soybeans.

 

Aprosoja reduced Brazilian 2021 soy production to 125 MMT due to dryness in key producing provinces while the USDA remains at 133 MMT.

 

Frankly, there is not much to say about soybeans other than this market appears to be working on filling gaps that have been mentioned in this week’s commentary. The market has not appeared to have rationed via price yet and we suspect the trade is anxious to see what WASDE does with the 175 carryout. Will they increase the carryout via a higher yield or reduce supplies even further? We suspect they find a larger yield on soybeans albeit not by much.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1311 and 1321 with support at 1285 and 1269.  Major cycle window timing on January 14th.

 

 

WHEAT:     The saying “oats know and wheat leads” sure came to vision today. Concern over potential crop damage in lesser production areas of China’s Inner Mongolia, a chunk of HRW areas missing rain and snow, and realization amongst the bears that this market has too much concerns weather wise to remain short into the new year. That and the Russian wheat export tariffs that go into place on February 15th along with news that Algeria was tendering for a sizeable amount of wheat today with US values competitive to European Union. We should add tight farmer hold of cash is adding support.

 

Wheat futures have two major cycle windows of time which are January 14th and the 30th. (the 30th should fall on Friday the 29th)

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 650 and 661 with a Wave 4 at 665. Support is at 621 and 603.  KC March wheat resistance is at 610 and 619 with support at 586 and 571.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Northern packers upped bids today and will call to $175 and $176 following Tuesday’s snow storm. A regional packer is said to have paid $111 and $112 in Iowa.

 

Futures were quiet but weaker on all contracts other than the spot month. Feeders are the culprit for weakness in fats due to corn futures enthusiastic rally.

 

We hear a larger than normal New Year’s evening slaughter schedule and a large Saturday kill could be the reason for the kill to push over last year’s pace. Demand for beef remains good and of course, it appears packers will end the year with historically high profit margins.

 

Time for a review:  Basis the daily chart, March feeders floater is 42% negative, the timer is 62% negative and the TRx is negative. RSIs are reaching oversold conditions at 10% on the 3 day and 40% on the 9 day. Good support at 13760. That said, it still looks like a head and shoulders bottom building on the daily March feeder chart.

 

The March feeder inner-day 60 minute floater is 6% negative and the timer is 11% negative but the TRx is positive. The stochastic is also becoming low. We also have to note, the inner-day 180 floater is 4% negative and the timer is 8% negative and when these turn positive, it should allow for a rally. The 3-day RSI is 10% and the 9-day RSI is 32% which has held lows since November 21st.

 

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 12-30-2020.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soy products dragging as Argentine strike is settled but soybeans are still trying to push the highs of Tuesday.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-29-2020

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.   515-832-6140

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

December 29, 2020

 

 

“Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.”

Henry Ford

 

 

 WEATHER:     Brazilian rainfall over the past week has favored southern Minas Gerais, northern Sao Paulo, northeastern Goias, Tocantins, and Mato Grosso. Most of the other areas failed to get much rain to counter the evaporation in net drying conditions. Depending on which weather service one reads or listens to, there seems to be a varying forecast when it comes to just how much rain these areas are getting. Overnight rainfall in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias were quite disappointing and areas in far southern and northeastern Brazil are a bit too dry for ideal crop conditions. Some timely rainfall is forecast for this weekend into next week for parts of northeastern Brazil and gradual improvement should come to Goias. In fact, it is anticipated that some Minas Gerais locations might become a bit too wet over time.

We note, World Weather, Inc., believes Brazil’s best 30 days of weather is beginning but concerns still remain. For much of Brazil. Temperatures are seasonable with highest temps over the past week in the upper 80s to lower to mid-90s Fahrenheit.

There are areas of southern Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, and much of Sao Paulo and Espirito Santo into Goias, Mato Grosso, and portions of northern and eastern Mato Grosso do Sul that have received excessive to adequate rains. Parts of Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, and northeastern Minas Gerais still have moisture shortages with pockets of southern Brazil starting to dry down in the topsoil.

Dryness in southern Brazil has not yet been persistent enough to significantly impact corn or soybean conditions. Most locations still had enough moisture to support favorable growth for crops. However, timely rains will be needed in the near future to reverse the drying trend. Bahia and northeastern Minas Gerais also need greater rainfall to improve the environment for the small amount of corn and soybeans produced in the region. Note, western portions of Bahia is the most important part of that state’s grain, oilseed, and cotton production. Rainfall in that region has been better and a bit more timely.

Unfortunately, Argentina is dealing with more dryness and concerns continue to mount. Temperatures are forecast to push higher into the weekend and into January 12th with highs in the mid-90s to low 100s. It is this forecast that helped soybeans turn the other cheek to soybeans sell-off and resume higher.

 

CORN:     The train is about to leave the station. We are quite pleased with the lead contract pushing through the highs of 2019 to offer a outside range year for corn. Now, we anticipate the highest high last year of 473 which was on the December contract to be fair game and perhaps by the close of New Year’s Eve. Corn has been dealing with many doubting Thomas’s and has been the short side of spreading with long soybeans, but this appears to be coming to an end. Corn is starting to gain respect.

Farmers are going to receive a stimulus check, and this may cause farmers to think twice before opening the bin doors. Once in the bin, and it’s late December, farmers will not be too accommodating to reopen the bin and load corn out.

We continue to hear how steel is going to be tight after the turn of the year and more expensive. Car manufacturers are getting ready to ramp up production and Boeing is making the 737 Max. All this spells expectation that the economy is going to be moving and by summer the population will be able to be driving and travel will pick back up. Therefore, we suspect the ethanol industry will also be bidding for corn to process so the industry will be ready for demand for blended fuel.

According to the last week’s CFTC report, managed fund longs in corn were at 356,000 contracts.

March corn has resistance tonight and tomorrow at 471 and 476 with support at 457 and 448.

 

SOYBEANS:     After a key reversal day on Monday, soybeans did an about face and struck another reversal higher. Two outside range sessions back-to-back are a sign of power. In this case, higher. Usually, a pattern such as this indicates good follow through to be expected and that would be for tonight and tomorrow. January soybeans held Monday’s low but the trade is mostly into the March and that contract saw an outside range day.

News was announced after the close that the negotiations in Argentina had broken down. Obviously, offering 35% increase in pay along with a covid payment was not enough. However, this could be the start to actually working out better agreements and who knows, an agreement could be had over the weekend?

Managed fund length is said to be 260,000 contracts long. As we turn the year over, index funds are expected to reallocate funds to the commodities market. January is expected to be a volatile month with USDA/WASDE releasing the Supply and Demand Report, and Quarterly Stocks while, NASS updates the corn and soybean yields. We share that the January Quarterly Stocks reports are known to offer volatile moves which can sometimes be limit moves and especially in corn.

Soymeal helped soybeans to lead the way higher today and we note, March soymeal is nearing a Wave 4. Traders will be anxious to see the open interest data tomorrow. The need for demand rationing in soybeans is increasing and the Chinese Lunar New Year usually entices more soybean demand. This year’s Chinese Lunar New Year is later than normal on February 12th which is a Friday and Chinese markets will be closed for a week but interestingly, this time US markets will be closed for a three-day weekend with Presidents Day on February 15th.

It is perhaps, Argentine weather that seems to be the focus more so than Brazil as Argentina is forecast for the next two weeks to see limited rainfall along with higher temperatures. However, northern Brazil is also turning quite dry and has a forecast of warmer temps into the 12th of January.

Bottom line, we look for a very strong session tonight and Wednesday.  Soybeans are now into the gaps talked about on Monday evening’s commentary and a $13 plus price is now anticipated into New Year’s Eve. The next major cycle window is due January 14th and January 30th. For tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1317 and 1334 with support at 1264 and 1228. Recall, a weekly January soybean Wave 4 is 1386.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures could not resist today and even in the face of rain and snow in the eastern halves of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, futures pushed higher to play along with corn and soybeans.  Notice it was KC wheat that gained nearly 4 cents on the Chicago. We continue to look for KC to come to even money in the spreads and perhaps with time gain premium.

Technically, KC March wheat had an inside range higher day and taking out Monday’s low would be concerning but we are not expecting this, and we believe wheat is building a large head and shoulders low.

News for wheat is quiet this evening. That said, there are shipments of Argentine wheat being held up and this could cause a switch of business to the US.

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 625 and 629 with support at 613 and 605. KC March wheat resistance is 589 and 594 with support at 577 and 570.  Major cycle window of time is January 14th and January 30th.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Monday’s strong market action turned quiet and south today. Cash is forecast to be stronger this week and perhaps the storm that is tracking through cattle country and across the Midwest should be gone by Wednesday offered some liquidation.  However, 2021 carries a more optimistic outlook and as we move into the turn of the year, the forecast of 400,000 less cattle numbers to slaughter in the first quarter should offer underpinnings in this market. That said, there is also a thought of one more break in cattle before turning this market higher. We continue to like the longer term outlook for cattle and will focus on the break in cattle prices to establish long positions.

We discussed the boxed beef cutout in Monday’s commentary and expectations for a sharp rebound which appears to have started today with a $2 higher market with more to come going over the coming two weeks. That said, one can surely point to the bang-up banner year that packers have had. This should continue to imply avid packer demand to process as many animals as possible. With vaccines being distributed, the labor force should become more stable and consistent. This only serves to be a positive for both the packer but also the producer.

January 14th is major cycle window timing for cattle.

We have to note going forward, the American citizen has now gotten use to having a freezer and the convenience of filling the freezer with meat. Then, as we work our way into mid-year, we believe restaurant business will be moving gang busters. All it will take is the media to spin it so people will believe. The media has a lot of power.

 

Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info, LLC’s research department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations
should not be considered a solicitation. This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a

solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named.

The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst may have any positions in these products. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Alert for 12-29-2020

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

December 29, 2020

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy.

 

 Note, markets will close regular times on New Year’s Eve and will be closed on Friday, New Year’s Day. Markets will open regular times on Sunday evening, January 3rd at 7 pm.

 

 

ALERT:     This is a platinum alert.  Note, soybeans are into the gaps discussed on Monday evening’s commentary. More importantly, Sunday night and Monday’s trade was an outside range day from the range of Christmas Eve. Overnight we took out Monday’s low on March soybeans but not on the January. Now, the high of Monday has been taken out as well. Two outside range days back to back and this one higher is a sign of power. This implies the market should be into a fairly straight forward push higher in the next day or so and probably both. As for March corn, an outside “lead” contract year is now made and we suspect the 473.25 high of the December 2019 contract will also be breached in the next few days. Corn is awakening.

 

Futures Cash Info Disclaimer:

 

This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 12-29-2020.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Is today the low for soybeans?


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-28-2020

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info, LLC.  515-832-6140

 

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future

 

December 28, 2020

 

Cash Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy.

 

 Note, markets will close regular times on New Year’s Eve and will be closed on Friday, New Year’s Day. Markets will open regular times on Sunday evening, January 3rd at 7 pm.

 

Thoughts.  I was reviewing one of the best demand driven markets that I can recall besides the early 70’s in the Great Grain Robbery by Russia. The year under review was 1996. As markets turned the year over from 1995 to 1996, some thought the bull market was coming to an end and believed the market would experience the proverbial “February Break.” However, that year was no ordinary year and speculative and managed funds held large positions with handsome profits. They moved to a more defensive trading strategy in efforts to protect their profits and started placing more focus on negative events. Like this year, there was drought in South America and while there had been rains during last half of December and the first days of January, the rains were not enough to guarantee good crops. Still, bullish traders started to abandon their long positions in fear of losing the profits they already had accumulated. Of course, this started a decline and this could happen again in early January unless it has already started? As for the current weakness of today, (other than in corn) we note the pattern of soybeans and corn has been to sell off into the end of the month and sometimes into the 2nd of the new month. So, the market could be just pulling off another similar pattern. Perhaps, what will be more telling is the response following the USDA Supply and Demand Report and the Final Production Report in January which is followed by a “major” cycle window of time. We will walk through these timings.

Commercials continue to buy breaks and this too is another symptom of a demand driven market. Commercial buying would not be large enough to absorb the fund selling if this were not a demand driven market.

Have you noticed, China, Mexico, Japan, South Korea and other countries remain buyers as the need to build reserves may be coming back into vogue after “just-in-time inventorying” replaced reserves back in the early 90s. China seeing their hog herd nearing pre-ASF levels in the first half of 2021 and a poultry industry that was increased and remains at those levels due to the need for protein for the Chinese citizens requires larger amounts of corn and soymeal. However, China’s weather in 2020 was nothing short of horrific and we now see China taking all the deliveries of Chicago wheat.  This all points to continued strong demand while, we also note, corn prices on the Dalian Exchange continues to strike new highs and wheat auctions see dismal response in buyers probably a sign of poor quality wheat.

 Lastly, another sign of a demand driven market is that 2021 is the last year of Phase One Agreement in which China will be taking more agricultural commodities. We just need to keep in mind that this market is demand driven.

Therefore, to last through this exciting market, we would suggest under trading and using protective stops. There will always be another day and the key is to make money. We are so excited about 2021!

 

WEATHER:    

 

 

 

CORN:     Corn futures held well into the session regardless of weakness in both soybeans and wheat. We suspect unwinding of spreads offered corn support. That said, our suspicion is that March corn may push at the 464.25 2019 lead contract high before Thursday’s close. Like the individual contracts of the expired December 2020 contract and the current March contract, an outside range is possible for the lead contract and this would offer ability to close near the highs.

Still, the forecast for Argentina indicates the country’s corn crop may be seeing worsening conditions and note, Argentina is number 2 exporter of corn globally but does vie for the position with Brazil at times. The stressed areas of Argentina are forecast to expand from 50% to 66% in coming weeks. Brazilian dry areas are expected to waffle between 15% and 25% over the coming two weeks.

With corn expected to fill in the loss of sugarcane in ethanol production in Brazil and an increasing demand globally for corn for feeding, we suspect Brazil needs to produce a good crop of corn and that too is somewhat questionable. Still, Argentina is gaining attention with each passing day of either disappointing rains or no rain at all.

Private exporters reported the sale 149,572 mt of corn to unknown destinations.

We note, traders will be apprehensive to turn short in corn into the USDA January reports. We could not agree more. Technically, corn has tended to be a lager but, we note the WAVE 4 is 515.25 basis the March futures via daily data. Of course we do not see that in 2020 but we do support this objective in 2021.

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 460 and 462 with support at 451 and 444.  For the week, March corn resistance is 456 and 460 with support at 442 and 432. Today was the 7th day up in a cyclical count and the 6th month higher in a cyclical count. We suspect 7 is more doable.

 

SOYBEANS:     While the 6-10 day forecast for both Argentina and southern Brazil is average to below average temperatures and below normal precipitation, (a cooler but arid forecast) sounds friendly, the cooler temps may be perceived as negative. Hot temperatures always seem to grab the traders’ attention rather than cooler but drier forecasts. That said, concerning dryness appears to be spreading across Argentina. The weather pattern across a major portion of Argentina and into southern Brazil is concerning should it last into February.

Soybeans enthusiasm waned from early session evening highs and as the market started the day session, prices fell but we note the January did manage to hold the 1245 area and futures closed off of the lows for the day.

Soybeans caught selling on word that the Argentine government was getting involved in settling the port strike and this poses no surprise as soyoil and soymeal both were weaker today. The trade ignored sales of 233,700 mt of soybeans sold to unknown destinations in this crop year for delivery while, another sale of 125 tmt of soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for delivery in 2021/22 and of course, we believe these are China.  Another sale for 33,000 tmt of soyoil to unknown destinations was also announced. It is rumored that may be India which is a significant sell in of itself but going to India is also worth noting.

As is the expectation of traders wishing to be long going into the January reports for corn, the same holds true for soybeans and especially in light of a 175 million bushel carryout.

Technically, January soybeans on daily continuation has a gap at 1284 to 1314.75 while, the March has a similar gap of 1287.5 to 1363.50!  The market caught selling just beneath these gaps today.  It is our contention that soybeans are not rationing yet and should SA weather continue to disappoint, soybeans should move higher to ration US supplies.

March soybeans have resistance at 1288 and 1310 with support at 1230 and 1194 for this week. Via the daily chart, resistance for tonight and tomorrow, March soybeans have resistance at 1275 and 1293 with support at 1242 and 1227.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures lacking domestic weather concerns with a snow storm moving into the HRW area continues to find snappy breaks but we are of the opinion that when these occur it is opportunity to protect end user needs and replace cash sales if one feels compelled to do so. The trade is watchful of Russian/Black Sea weather and concerns over potential production losses. We also believe the securing of nearly 100% of the December Chicago wheat deliveries by Chinese state-owned enterprise COFCO International Grains is a telling longer term fundamental. China had such horrific weather this past summer.  In the old days, KC wheat always traded premium to Chicago. We note the spread continues to narrow and we wonder if we are looking at the KC revisiting its old days’ behavior?

For tonight and tomorrow, Chicago March wheat has resistance at 629 and 641 with support at 605 and 593. For the week, resistance is 643 and 657 with support at 605 and 581.  KC March wheat resistance is 590 and 601 with support at 568 and 557 but for the week, resistance is 600 and 609 with support at 572 and 553.

 

LIVESTOCK:     While weather may have played a hand into today’s rally on feeders and fats, we believe this market remains in positive mode per our indicators. Still, it seems that floor traders from the old days seem to be watching for a chance to make sales in looking for a January break probably in the February contract. Beyond that, traders tell me that June appears to be a good time but again, we like October.

As for the February contract, there is a resistance above the market at 116.62 area. However, the cutout appears to be heading into a sizeable rally of perhaps at least $10 and perhaps more? This rally in the cutout should last for nearly three weeks. Should the February contract close over the 116.62 area it should open the door for a bit more.

All that said, we have to keep in mind, rumor has it that trading funds will be placing more money into commodities and if so, we note, total fund participation in cattle futures be it long, short, or spread is rather small at this time. If this is so, then a wave of buying by managed money would probably influence the April and June. We also share that there is a gap on the February live cattle daily chart at 121.40 which could possibly be tested? Regardless, the traders that we have known for years tell us they believe there will be a selloff coming in which they are watching the June contract for buying. This could be tied back to anticipation of June being the start of summer and allowing for the Coronavirus to have died down by then and restaurants opening in a more normal fashion?

We hear our sources indicating a combined Choice/Select cutout value of $210 per cwt in February. Of course, it is presumed that packer margins will be near $275 per head which would be smaller than anything we have seen in the past ten months.

Lastly, we share per the February 1st inventory of cattle on feed 150 days or more should be up 33% from last year at that similar time and would be record large for that date.

Technically, per the daily chart, February live cattle trending averages remain long. The floater is 91% positive, the timer is 81% positive and the TRx is neutral to positive. The daily stochastic is 76% on the D and the K is 87%.  Recall, the seasonal April live cattle trade that was recommended to buy on the December 9th and hold into January 2nd. Since, January 2nd is Saturday we would suggest letting those positions go on Thursday.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of  Futures Cash Info., LLC. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation.

This material is not a research report prepared by Futures Cash Info LLC.’s,  Research Department. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not, rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions. DISTRIBUTION IN SOME JURISDICTIONS MAY BE PROHIBITED OR RESTRICTED BY LAW. PERSONS IN POSSESSION OF THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY SHOULD INFORM THEMSELVES ABOUT AND OBSERVE ANY SUCH PROHIBITION OR RESTRICTIONS. TO THE EXTENT THAT YOU HAVE RECEIVED THIS COMMUNICATION INDIRECTLY AND SOLICITATIONS ARE PROHIBITED IN YOUR JURISDICTION WITHOUT REGISTRATION, THE MARKET COMMENTARY IN THIS COMMUNICATION SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED A SOLICITATION. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC., believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Evening Opening Commentary for 12-27-2020.mp3

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Starting the last week of 2020.  Hmmm what will it see?


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 12-24-2020.mp3

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MERRY CHRISTMAS!


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.