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Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 7-6-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.July 6, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

We share, Credit Suisse said today “Recessions are most accurately characterized by a meltdown in employment accompanied by an inability of consumers and businesses to meet their financial obligations. While we are currently experiencing a meaningful slowdown in economic growth from extremely high levels, neither of the above conditions are present today. We see upside for the remainder of this year, with new price target suggesting the S&P 500 will rise 12.4$ from 3,825 on July 1st.”

 

WEATHER:      

 

CORN:     As we near the end of the first week of July, the weather forecast appears it will turn hotter and drier by mid-July. Rains this week have not been heavy but have been ideal to help relieve crop stress in many of the drier areas. However, with warmer nights of over 70 degrees and hotter days, the moisture is evaporating. Corn will be heading into tasseling and pollination as the heat hits. With the markets grossly oversold, this should offer a short covering rally in which farmers may see a chance to price in some new crop and finish up old crop sales if needed. We do find it difficult to believe the market could V-bottom and move to new highs for the year, but a nice reprieve should still be in the cards in days ahead. Keep in mind, these are major markets and another cycle window of importance is due on July 28th.  Will this be a harvest low (July lows are rare) or, are we looking at a harvest low due in August? We share a major cycle window of August 24th may be the date we are looking at.

With the rout that corn and many commodity markets have seen in the past month, open interest has declined sharply implying the longs may be nearing enough liquidation. We note, the highs on new crop corn and on soybeans was very similar to that of last year. Is 2022 the highs for the major commodity move (especially in grains)? We think not and as global markets open further, demand should remain strong for corn, soybeans, and wheat.

We find it interesting that in one of the most demanding and interesting times, (making history in our lifetimes) corn came close to the all-time high for a lead contract with 2012’s high of 843.5 on a lead contract and this year’s lead contract high of 827.  Soybeans did a similar behavior with the all-time high of 1794.75 being close to the July soybean high of 1784, and wheat pushing to 1380 basis the KC wheat which was a new all-time high but not far from the previous high in 2008 . It was only natural that the market would find selling and as loaded long as the market was, a double top became doable. Markets have experienced heavy selling by the longs and this helps to cleanse the market to prepare for the next bull move. The market is doing its job in disillusioning traders to become negative or bearish so that it has something to chew on as the market moves higher.

Technically, the market found good support today around the Wave count at 570.25 with today’s low of 566.5. As mentioned in Tuesday evening’s commentary, a Wave count of 548.5 would be another spot of stellar support. End users and livestock producers are encouraged to start booking ahead for feed needs.

We have shared the Farmers’ Almanac for this year that agreed with our South American weather guru in warmer than normal weather for much of the country including the Midwest but the difference between the two is that the Almanac indicates heat to be accompanied with above normal moisture. We wonder if that may be the case??? Then we shared the World Weather, Inc. forecast comparison of this year to that of potentially 1956. That too seems doable. We suggest keeping an eye on night time temps once the corn is pollinated. We suspect traders will be on the alert for farmer cash sales once corn has pollinated.

Ukrainian Ag Minister estimates 2022 grain crop at 50 MMT versus last year at 86 MMT. Ukraine Grain Trade Association pegs 2022/23 Ukraine corn and wheat exports at 10 MMT each compared to 23 MMT and 19 MMT respectively in 2021/22.

Bottom line, we suspect a rally is close at hand and then another slip that may lead us into the August 24th cycle that may strike the low for fall.

For tonight and tomorrow, September corn has resistance at 607 and 613 with support at 588 and 575. December corn resistance is 592 and 598 with support at 572 and 558.

Basis on corn remains very firm which implies farmers are either sold down more than thought or shellshock and waiting for a bounce to add to the basis and make sales?

 

SOYBEANS:      Our view for soybeans is similar to that of corn.  Basis the August contract, the daily floater is 13% negative and the timer is 1% negative. The TRx is negative but into an area that  normally produces a turn. The inner-day 180 floater is 58% positive and the timer is 9% positive. However, the 60 minute floater is 76% negative, the timer is 99% positive and the TRx is positive.  (askewed)

November soybeans found support against the low of 1302. The daily floater is 13% negative and the timer is 1% negative. The TRx is negative.

The report on June 30th was friendly or bullish but traders were anticipating the news and when the market rallied it found resistance technically and anyone who wanted to be long was. We kept alerting that puts were being bought which was a sign of selling against the potential all-time high/double top.

As for China, they have been absent from our market and we note, China did not ink a deal in buying 300 Airbus airliners from Boeing but rather struck a deal with the EU. That had to be very disappointing for Boeing and it meant the loss of tens of thousands American jobs.

The first community outbreak of omicron subvariant BA5 has been noted in Xi’an while, Shanghai reported new cases of Covid-19, raising fears of another round of restrictions.

The dry areas of the Midwest are estimated to be shrinking this week from 33% on Monday to 15-20% today. A drier pattern is expected to set in next week. Northern Delta pollinating corn along with Kentucky and Tennessee will be hurt this week. Still, it is thought the crop conditions will edge higher next Monday?

Renewable energy accounted for 49% of German power consumption in the first half of this year, up 6% from a year ago thanks to favorable weather conditions. Both higher sunshine intensity and wind speeds were behind the trend.

Malaysian palm oil has fallen for four consecutive sessions today and to the lowest level in nearly a year on mounting fears of a global recession. Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers’ Association reported that July 1-5 production fell nearly 16% from the month before.

Bottom line, we look at November soybeans as finding good support in the 1285-1302 area.

Chinese hog prices are on the surge as we have recently mentioned before. This may lead to views by traders that the low number of hogs needing soymeal for feed is much less? We would not forward contract feed needs at this time.

For tonight and tomorrow, August soybeans have resistance at 1465 and 1481 with support at 1428 and 1407. November soybeans have resistance at 1342 and 1360 with support at 1304 and 1284. Major cycle window timing due on July 28th.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat and corn too, almost seem like the war between Russia and Ukraine is on the back burner for response.  Perhaps, abundant cheap rice supplies in Asia is helping to defer demand as rice is interchangeable for wheat. However, with the US into harvest and the Russian wheat crop a record, supplies should be plentiful in the coming few months even with Ukraine off line. Still, by the fourth quarter, demand should start to surface. Meanwhile, traders continue to watch crop conditions and weather for spring wheat.

There is cycle timing on July 16th but, we are more focused on July 28th and then into August.

Bottom line, the world food crisis will eventually get this market moving again and we suggest viewing the December and March 23 contracts when establishing longer term positions. For now, harvest pressure and recession talk is weighing on this market as it is on corn and soybeans.

For tonight and tomorrow, September Chicago wheat has resistance at 835 and 863 with support at 782 and 757.  KC September wheat resistance is 883 and 912 with support at 828 and 802.

 

LIVESTOCK:     With August fats trading at a discount to both the expiration of the June contract and the cash market, August renewed strength today with another inside range session but this one was higher.  Cattle in the south are trading at 137 to 138 with a marked difference of strength in the north with cattle trading at 145 to 150. With the packer short bought this week, cash should see the packer bidding for cattle to fill a full week next week.

The boxed beef behaved quite strongly in June and may behave milder on the weakness in July. Longer term, tight supplies are expected which should imply higher prices to come. The feedlots are thought to be quite current and we note, the heat in Texas and Oklahoma could lead to more cattle being placed into feedlots in that region.

The cattle inventory report will be released on July 22nd and is thought to be a friendly report. Cattle in the feedlots have been pulled ahead but the industry is said to still be in liquidation of cows. This may be evident in the southwest.

When talking about recession, pork is a recessionary meat. Local grocery stores are featuring T-bones for 11.99 lb., chicken tenderloins at 4.99 lb., and Iowa chops at 2.79 lb.

With heat in the forecast, hogs may not finish so well and this could support prices. There are 1% less hogs available and the heat and humidity may not serve finishers well.

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 7-6-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Grains bottoming today?


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 7-5-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.July 5, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

WEATHER:     The rains in the eastern Midwest were timely in relation to corn pollination and some soybean flowering. The precipitation was enough to ease dryness, but the driest areas of the Midwest will shift to the southwest including Missouri, southwestern Illinois, Kansas, and immediate neighboring areas as well as the northern Delta. The southern Plains will remain quite dry regardless of a few showers in the coming week to ten days.

Rain is expected over the next several days from Iowa to Ohio, Indiana, and parts of Kentucky which should greatly ease the Midwest’s driest areas. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches and locally more will be possible by the middle of this coming weekend. That will be sufficient to restore favorable topsoil moisture while leaving subsoil moisture close to today’s levels. Follow up rain will be needed to improve subsoil moisture (World Weather, Inc.)      

 

CORN:     Good weekend rains of a half to 1 inch of rains with isolated 2 inch rains enticed funds to further liquidate long positions and add selling pressure on the opening today. 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s center-south safrinha corn crop is now 31% harvested, while Patria, another Brazilian ag consultant, estimated the total safrinha corn crop was 34% harvested compared to the 5-year average of 24%. Is this another indication of how dry the corn region had become?

We had shared the Wave 3 major count (large) at 570.25 which held the market in check today but we also share, another Wave 4 count exists at 548.5 basis December contract. Corn has fallen hard from the highs and we suspect this market is close to nearing a low for now.  We share the latest version of the Elliot wave counts on December corn. Keep in mind, these are not the same as the Wave counts I give at times. I will always specify if it is Elliot wave.

Adding to the wave counts on December corn, I can measure a Wave 5 (rare to have 5s) at 489.75 and a large weekly count at 471.5 as a Wave 4.

Crop condition ratings showed a 3% loss in good to excellent for corn as of July 3rd. Silking is 7% compared to average of 11%.

Topsoil moisture fell 5% as of Sunday but, rains are moving through South Dakota, Iowa, and southern Minnesota so will traders ignore? Subsoil moisture fell 4%.

For tonight and tomorrow, December corn has resistance at 597 and 614 with support at 566 and 552. We would look for a higher opening on conditions slipping. After this week of storms, we wonder just how much more Mother Nature will pick away.

FYI, Argentine Economy Minister resigned over the weekend and his replacement announced on Monday has close ties to Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, worrying ag-related interests given her historically pro-tax stance on ag exports in the past.

 

SOYBEANS:     Like corn, soybeans got hit with selling pressure on the day’s opening and prices fell 80 cents or so via the new crop November contract.  Soybeans have been the last one to join the negative party but with bullish ideas keyed into prices going into the report at the end of June, everyone was at the party.  It became a seller’s delight and futures added to the selling today. Funds are said to have been hit with high margin calls and had to liquidate down which gave reason for the meltdown this market has felt similar to corn.

Soybean oil had few friends today as well, with Malaysian palm oil stocks forecast to be at 7-month highs at 1.709 MMT with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board to release their monthly report on July 12.  Indonesia raised the palm oil export quota to 7 times the amount of the domestic sales obligation, from 5 times previously in place, in an effort to increase exports and halt the sharp decline in palm oil prices as stocks remain extremely high. Malaysian palm oil prices fell hard overnight which followed through today’s session on soybean oil.

China was rumored to have canceled 5-8 cargoes of old crop U.S. soybeans and it may be that the cargoes were switched into new crop sales rather than outright cancellations. This too weighed on soybeans today.

Another cause that few talk about is the strength of the U.S. Dollar. Futures hit new highs for the move today and the strength weighed on many commodity contracts. The Dollar reached the highest level since 1986! Foreign money is coming to the U.S. for safety. Where else in the world can it go?

For tonight and tomorrow, August soybeans have resistance at 1482 and 1520 with support at 1419 and 1394. November soybeans have resistance at 1362 and 1402 with support at 1292 and 1262.

Basis the November soybean contract, support should be in effect around the 1275-1280 area.

Major cycle window timing due on July 28th.

Soybean conditions in good to excellent slipped 2%  which may offer the market a better opening this evening. Soybeans setting pods was in line with the average of 3%. Soybeans blooming was pegged at 16% versus average of 22%.  Crops remain behind.

We share, technically, both beans and corn on our indicators remain negative but soybeans are very oversold in the indicators compared to that of corn. Either way, both are overdone and keep in mind, there will be opportunity on this break as even bear markets have reprieves or rallies. Don’t lose faith.

 

WHEAT:      Being in harvest, wheat futures led the grain and soy markets south. A year ago, wheat struck a low this week. Ukraine said total 2021/22 wheat exports were 18.7 MMT compared to 16.6 MMT a year ago regardless of March to June exports only being around 700 tmt versus 2.9 MMT year given the Russian invasion.  July 21 to June 22 marketing year total corn exports were 23.5 MMT compared to 23.1 MMT last year, with March to June exports limited to 4.3 MMT compared to 9.2 MMT last year.

Turkey reportedly stopped a Russian-flagged cargo ship off its coast to investigate claims Russia is exporting stolen Ukrainian wheat. Russian authorities say they have made agreements with local farmers in a Russian controlled region of southern Ukraine to buy grain from farmers to export to Middle East countries. What does one believe?

Egypt’s GASC was in the market over the weekend for 444 tmt of wheat with Russia selling 214 tmt, France selling 170 tmt, and Romania selling 60 tmt.  With harvest underway, Russian wheat prices are falling.

Stats Canada estimated 2022/23 all wheat planted area at 25.395 million acres, sharply higher than last year’s drought stricken acreage of 23.4 million acres. Spring wheat area is estimated at 18.212 million acres, which is above the range of guesses and up from last year’s 16.5 MMT.

Spring wheat heading out is 20% versus average of 57%. Spring wheat conditions improved 7% versus last week! This may cause wheat to open steady to weaker this evening.

The next major cycle window timing is July 28th.  For tonight and tomorrow, December wheat has resistance at 846 and 871 with support at 808 and 795. KC December wheat has resistance at 904 and 937 with support at 853 and 935.

Basis the daily September chart, the floater is 3% negative, the timer is 1% negative and the TRx is negative. This is taking patience to see the TRx and floater make a positive turn confirmed. The stochastic is in position to also turn.

Basis the inner-day 60 minute chart, the floater is 7% negative, the timer is 16% negative, and the TRx is positive. The stochastic is in position to also see a turn but must prove it.

The inner-day 180 chart shows the floater is 2% negative, the timer is 1% negative, and the TRx is neutral. The stochastic is in position to also join.

 

LIVESTOCK:      Regardless of heavy selling in grains, feeder cattle and the fats fell hard today. August fats took back much of Friday’s rally effort and the October took out Friday’s low.

Managed funds reduced their long positions by 6,032 contracts to 72,516 and increased short positions by 8,884 to 48,251 contracts.

As for weather, a monsoonal flow is forecast to improve dry conditions in Arizona and New Mexico. However, the drought via the NOAA shows it moving further into Illinois and Indiana, through northern Mississippi and into Louisiana and eastern Texas. Texas is pretty much expected to deal with the heat and dryness which should cause pastures to wither more and we suspect this could imply larger placements yet to be seen.

The packer appears to be short bought this week with next week’s slaughter seeing a larger need so, the packer should be willing to pay steady money?

The afternoon cutout showed choice up $0.84 at $264.66 with select down $0.60 at $239.87.

The daily chart on August live cattle shows the floater is 9%  negative, the timer is 15% negative and the TRx is positive. The stochastic has some work to finish. We are watching but today was an inside day on the August fat contract which may see tomorrow weaker as the inner-day 60 minute floater is 61% negative, the timer is 91% negative and the TRx is negative. The inner-day 180 floater is 69% positive and the timer is 24% positive. The TRx is negative.

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 7-5-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Do we call this the Red Sea? Corn may be at a point of major support.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 7-1-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.July 1, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

WEATHER:      

 

CORN:     Fund selling continued into the first day of July. Since June 3rd, open interest in corn is down 246,000 contracts and funds are finding the exit. Have you noticed the spread between July and December corn. The spread closed at $1.47 today which implies the cash market has not given up. That said, acreage under 90 million acres is not bearish but the trade is caught up in the forecast of milder temps and rain potential over the weekend and mild weather into July 7th.  It feels like the trade is saying “prove it to me” when it comes to hot and dry weather forecasts.

There are parts of the Corn Belt that has not received beneficial rain and going into the turn of the month to July, the forecast is non-threatening. It is not perfect either. We note, World Weather, Inc., recently shared years that analogue with this year thus far. Their research showed many parallels to other years in which a strongly negative PDO event was present while a multi-year La Nina episode was underway. The most highly correlated analog years have suggested dryness would be most significant in the central and southern Plains, the Delta, and a part of both the southeastern states and in a portion of the western Corn Belt.

The one year in that assessment that has been most closely paralleling the 2022 growing season is 1956. Looking into the details, World Weather, Inc. discovered a more favorable rain pattern in July of that year after a drier bias in June. This compares relatively well with the current model forecasts for the U.S. Midwest which keep trying to make it rain in July. There are no guarantees, but the parallel to 1956 – if it continues – would lend more support for better early season crops than late season crops in the U.S. this summer.

 

June 2022 was drier than usual for much of the key U.S. crop areas and the temperatures were warmer than usual in the Plains and across most of the southern states while a bit closer to normal in the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. The data is somewhat similar to that of 1956 at which time June precipitation was anomalously low in many areas of the Great Plains, Midwest, southeastern states, and in the far northeast.  “the anomalies from 1956 were not exactly the same as those of this year, but no one would expect identical years. The widespread lighter than usual rainfall noted in June of this year is quite similar to that of 1956. Even the pockets of wetter biased conditions that occurred this year can be seen in the 1956 data, as well.

 

Temperatures rarely line up when making comparisons back more than 20 or 30 years because of the influence of climate change. The warmer temperature bias in more recent years always tend to skew comparisons from decades ago. That, however is not nearly so obvious for the comparative year of 1956 to 2022. Temperatures in both years were notably warmer biased in the Great Plains and some surrounding areas. June 1956 temperatures were mostly anomalously warm in the northern and central Plains while this year’s anomalies were greatest in the central and southern Plains and southwestern states.  There were slightly cooler biased temperatures in both the northeast and northwestern states. The year of 1956 is unique and should not be so quickly written off as a fluke parallel. The year was just like this one….a year in the midst of a multi-year drought with La Nina prevailing for two years and moving into a third yea. Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was also present in 1956 as it is today. Amazingly, the PDO index value for last October, November, and December 2021 was nearly as negative as that of the same three months in 1956. The two years are also uniquely positioned two years after the same 22-year solar cycle minimum and the upper air wind flow pattern or jet stream for the two years looks very similar.

 

 

While one may question the parallel between 1956 and 2022, one should have an open mind because it might just have a significant influence on where crop development and production may go over the coming 6 to 12 weeks. Keep in mind, that parallels in weather patterns do not last forever and usually breakdown or fail at some point but the images should catch our attention.

 

Notice in the charts the rainfall in both July and August was quite variable across key U.S. crop areas with some areas wetter biased and others drier biased. The erratic rainfall patterns seems much like that which occurred in June but with a wetter bias. “If this kind of pattern prevails in July and August the impact on crops will likely be mostly good. A few areas of lower than usual yield will occur, but there will be just as many  areas that have a great distribution of rain that would support good yields and crop quality.

In September 1956, the precipitation was minimal and most of the U.S. key summer crop areas ended up drier and warmer than normal. No doubt, the 1956 weather patterns were a little bearish since the implication is that no widespread serious droughty weather pattern evolves in the Midwest 1956, but always remember every year is different and just because 1956 did not have a serious weather problem outside the central and southern Plains and western fringes of the Corn Belt does not mean that this year will be exactly the same. There is potential that dryness will be a little faster evolving this summer compared to that of 1956, but no one really knows. The next two weeks may provide a good litmus test to see if 1956 and the latest computer forecast model runs are jiving or not.

Keep in mind, there is no guarantee that 2022 will finish or play out similar to 1956. Each time the computer weather forecast models predict rain for a part of the Midwest, Delta and southeastern states the event needs to be closely tracked. If the forecast starts verifying then these 1956 forecast charts may suddenly have much more to say about U.S. production this year. If, however, the computer forecast models are constantly overstating the rainfall coming up then the evidence will be favoring a failure in this 1956 parallel and summer weather may end up drier and harsher on production. As it stands now, the forecast still supports a favorable production year for early maturing corn and a little more challenging for late season crops – like soybeans.

World Weather, Inc.

We shared Drew’s comments following this past week’s rout in the soy and grain markets. Attitudes for corn and wheat were bearish coming in and did not offer much of a lasting reprieve from the cycle window timing last Monday/Tuesday. The bears believe we are patterning similar to that of 2008 and we also note, our weather service that we use from South America forecasts a hot and dry summer in the Midwest which should start after July 7th.  He goes onto talk about weather in August to be not quite as hot and sounds perhaps, better for soybeans? Guess, we will await further updates but thought we would share Drew’s comparison study of 1956 to this year but he does often indicate to be careful is believing this year will perform exactly the same as 1956.

We note, Stone X estimates Brazil’s corn production at 119.3 MMT with Safras and Mercado at 117.4 MMT.  The USDA currently stands at 116 MMT and we wonder if they will raise 500 tmt in the July S&D report?

Ukraine requested that Turkey detain and arrest a Russian flagged vessel carrying Ukrainian grain. Somehow we do not expect that to come to fruition.

There are no deliveries on July corn, oats, or ethanol.

We note, there are some funds that have taken some breathtaking losses this past month and especially in corn. After the past two weeks move, not many longs remain profitable if any at all. The nearby corn futures have averaged $6.60 a bushel this season, showing a high of 827 and a low of 494. With the last WASDE report showing domestic stocks down slightly, and global stocks of corn flat for the new crop carryouts, we should be theoretically close to this season’s average price for new crop or down just a touch, since we are coming from such high levels. On a bell curve of prices, an “average” implies a curve of prices above and below the median- in this case of the old crop, that bell curve encompassed a range of $3.33 a bushel, with the low $1.66 below the average and the high $1.67 above. If we assume we have an average nearby future of $6.50 for the new crop, that would suggest that harvest time lows in corn could touch close to $5 a bushel??? Now, we go back to the weather and what it means for new crop.

Basis September corn, resistance on Tuesday will be 642 and 645 with support at 621 and 603. For the week ahead, resistance is 692 and 696 with support at 633 and 576.

December corn has resistance at 622 and 635 with support at 599 and 589. For the week ahead, resistance is 646 and 689 with support at 583 and 563.

Lastly, seasonally, corn harvest lows may be an August item. We still look for global food shortages to support corn, soybeans, and wheat as we turn towards September and the fourth quarter but, weather is key as to how we progress in July. With the velocity of the decline in June, we should anticipate a rally effort in July but the question is “will it last?”

 

SOYBEANS:     Furthering the rout on soybeans from Thursday’s failure of a bullish implied report (mostly buy the rumor and sell the fact?), we note, China today pulled most of their bids which added bearish sentiment. China was notably absent from cash trade on Thursday, and were absent overnight as well. Mexico was inquiring on soymeal for October, Cuba inquiring for soymeal in September, and Turkey should be in next Tuesday for 18,000 mt of sunoil for July/August shipment.

In South America, Argentine truckers lifted their strike action, with grain already flowing into ports. Stone X is calling the soybean crop in Brazil 126.7 MMT versus their earlier estimate of 124.4 MMT. However, that is old news and who cares.

China held an auction on Friday morning of 499 tmt  from Reserves but sold none. They will try again next week, and 6,000 mt of soymeal traded at the ports this morning. Soybean stocks at the ports were estimated at 5.95 MMT which is down 270 tmt on the week with meal stocks estimated at 1.06 MMT which is up 30 tmt on the week and soy oil stocks at 950 tmt which is up 10 tmt on the week.

Funds are estimated to have sold 18,000 plus soybean contracts, 8,000 soyoil, and 7,000 soymeal on the day.  Large specs were thought to have sold 21,000 lots of soybeans on the after close Commitment of Traders report.

EU Commission estimates new crop rapeseed production will be 17.9 MMT compared to their previous estimate of 18.1 MMT and called import to increase to 4.5 MMT versus formally 4 MMT. The commission also estimated sunoil import would be 2 MMT versus formally at 1.5 MMT.

As we go into the holiday weekend, there are no deliveries against the soybeans, soymeal or soyoil.

Technically, soybeans basis August met with tough resistance on Thursday at the cluster of averages (100 day, 20 day, 40 day, and 50 day) so now, the 200 day moving average at 1456 appears to be a likely prospect. The 3-day moving average has turned back away from the 10 and trending averages are bearish.

If, we had to make a call for next Tuesday’s start we would say lower.  Traders will review how much rain was had over the weekend and what the forecast holds after the 7th. The daily August floater is 16% positive, the timer is negative at 1% and the TRx is negative. The inner-day 60 minute floater is 34% negative, the timer is 44% negative and the TRx is neutral. The stochastic is in position to make a turn higher.

The inner-day 180 floater is 2% negative, the timer is 4% and the TRx is negative with the stochastic needing to align the K and D.

We share the simplistic daily continuous August soybean chart with a trend line of support at today’s low.  We suspect this may be breached on Tuesday. Regardless of a bullish acreage number, November soybeans made a new monthly low today and closed at 1395.25 with the 200-day moving average just below at 1374.25 and the Wave 4 is at 1345. The daily November floater is 9% positive but the timer is negative at 2% with the TRx negative and the stochastic trying to fail but at a potential support level.

The next cycle window of time is July 28th and a major.  For Tuesday, August soybeans have resistance at 1592 and 1597 with support at 1524 and 1461. For the week ahead, resistance is 1629 and 1635 with support at 1532 and 1441.

November soybeans have resistance on Tuesday at 1495 and 1499 with support at 1415 and 1339.

 

WHEAT:     The forecast of showers for Friday and Saturday may hold back harvesting in Kansas, but by Sunday the harvesters should be back in the fields. The forecast does indicate some rain for the SRW areas to the east next week. Yields are still coming in huge for SRW, with low protein, and yield reports are disappointing for HRW with high protein.

The average guess for StatsCan on Tuesday’s report is 24.7 million acres versus 25 million estimated in April.

During June, Ukraine exported a mere 143 tmt of wheat. Agritel calls the Russian wheat crop at 85.4 MMT. European Union called its milling wheat production 125 MMT.

Buenos Aries Grains Exchange estimates Argentine wheat plantings are the most delayed in a decade due to drought, and that they are likely to reduce further their estimate of planted area from the present estimate of 6.3 million hectares.

After Thursday’s report, there was a chunk of spreading long wheat and short corn. Seasonally, the spread should work the other way.

Be it wheat, corn, or soybeans, if the world is short supplied and in need of food and raw commodities, we have to say there has been no rationing and these prices will offer opportunity. For now, it is harvest on wheat and for corn and soybeans, it is all about weather.

Ukraine’s marketing year started with huge promise – a country reveling in expectations of record-breaking corn, wheat, and barley crops and still supporting sizeable sunflower and oilseed output. There were growing signs that international export markets would soak up more Ukrainian products than ever before amid record-breaking production and economies around the world looking to power back after Covid lockdowns.

Now, the dawn of the 2022/23 marketing wheat year across the country looks a bit different mired in doubt amidst a devastating war that has in its most recent phase targeted agriculture-based logistics, stocks, farms, and even fields. The new regional wheat marketing year kicked off today and runs through June 30th 2023. What will the new marketing year look like? With stock levels rising, deep water ports still inaccessible, rail and road logistics fraught with challenges, and financing an increasingly major problem, Ukraine’s new marketing year is set to be its toughest ever.

Wheat is in harvest and we note, last year we peaked in May and bottomed on July 9th and went to new contract highs basis the September contract into August 13th.

For Tuesday, September Chicago wheat has resistance at 914 and 915 with support at 858 and 803.  KC September wheat resistance is 979 and 981 with support at 923 and 869.

 

LIVESTOCK:     China’s Ag Ministry said its sow herd declined 8% in May versus their previous estimate that the herd had dropped 5%.  However, China is slowly making its way back towards trying to reopen the country.  Pig prices are strong and production is slipping.

The late USDA cash report showed cash hogs were down $4.50 on the national and down $1.50 – $2.00 out west. The closing pork wire showed the cutout up $1.50 at $108.75. With a neutral hogs and pigs report, this market is searching for news to move it.  

August cattle surged higher today as it tried to align with the June expiration. Feeders gained traction on weakness in corn. The afternoon beef wire showed choice beef down $0.18 at $263.82 and select down $0.10 at $240.47. Movement was 82 loads and 19 trim.

Bringing the week to an end, Kansas cash trade was quiet but did trade at $234 in the meat and Iowa reported trade 145 to 149 with no trade occurring in Texas or Nebraska.

We share, October feeder cattle have a head and shoulders bottom (the formation is quite similar to that of coffee). The high of today did not quite exceed the March 29th high of 186. We share, the weekly October feeder cattle continuous chart indicators shows the floater at 45% positive, the timer at 6% positive. The TRx is positive as well. I do not look for a recession this year nor next year. 2024 perhaps.

Feedlots are current, weights are dropping (still) and export demand remains intact.

 

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FCI Morning Audio for 7-1-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans taking money off the table ahead of a long holiday weekend.  Weather carries rain in the forecast but percentages are not high and traders are in the “prove it to me” mode.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-30-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 30, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

 

 

WEATHER:      

 

CORN:     This almost feels like I am writing an obituary….or market behavior for the end of a quarter and month and half of the year added to the bearish ending for June in this commodity. As of June 16th, there were still 4.03 million acres yet to be planted and NASS estimated corn acres increased to 89.921 million acres. This was a gain of nearly 400,000 acres and quarterly stocks were close to trade guess at 4.346 billion bushels.

Corn futures were expecting a bearish report and that is what we got. Corn had traded on expectations of bearish fundamentals since the rally on Tuesday failed. As we mentioned in last night’s commentary, when (in this case) the cycle comes in as a low and the market rallied on the cycle window day about 32 cents and then gave up, taking out the low of the cycle timing is a sign of bearish or negative power. That occurred this morning ahead of the report.

Adding to the negative tone, on farms as of June 1st was 2.12 billion bushels which was 22% greater than the same time last year. Keep in mind, farmers were holding as they were busy trying to get crops planted and were not anxious to make cash sales due to uncertainty of how the crop would progress and the news for Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota helped with sentiment. Since that time, farmers made cash sales once their crops were in and received some rains unless receiving too much rain. Hate to say this but, more cash sales tend to occur on the slide than the rally.

So, where to from here? Basis the December contract, we note a Wave 4 (in our counts) is 628 which was struck today. The market appears it will push 614 tonight and that is the 200-day moving average for the contract which we note, corn has not traded to a 200-day moving average since November 5th, 2020.

We also share that basis the weekly December corn chart continuous, a Wave 3 is 570.  We share, the daily floater is 17% negative tonight with the timer at 35% negative and the TRx is negative albeit overdone.

Basis the inner-day 60 minute chart, the floater is 1% negative, the timer is 1% negative and the TRx is negative. The inner-day 180 chart, the floater is 2% negative, the timer is 5% negative and the TRx is negative.

Reviewing the indicators leads us to believe that the market should start lower this evening and by morning try to lift on  short covering heading into the long weekend.

We also add, the quarterly stocks are 234 million bushels greater than that of last year as of June 1st and is the 2nd lowest June 1st stocks in the past 7 years.

For tonight and tomorrow, December corn has resistance at 645 and 667 with support at 610 and 597.

 

SOYBEANS:     NASS took traders by surprise and estimated soybean acres would be 88.325 million acres which is down 2.630 million acres and if we add the two together, seeding is down 2 million acres.  NASS is going to resurvey North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota during July and if there is much change, they will include it in the crop production Supply and Demand Report on August 12th.  We expect an acreage increase for soybeans in the August report but we should get a better handle as to how many prevent plant acres we have this year. The acreage report was bullish and sent the market surging but ran out of gas since we have a long weekend ahead, the end of a quarter, and end of a month with a forecast for rain potential through the weekend with some milder weather for next week into Thursday. That said, come Tuesday morning, traders will be on full alert for the weather forecasts.

The up Monday, up Tuesday, up every day of the week except one may prevail with soybeans closing lower today other than the July contract. Will Friday see a higher close? Traders will be very conscious on the forecast come Tuesday morning and if heat is here and to stay with dryness, futures may try to price in the weather premium. Corn should especially become concerned as July is corn month. The next major cycle window of time is July 28th.

The soybean quarterly stocks were 6 million bushels over the average trade guess and 202  million bushels greater than June 1st 2021. That said, acres down as much as forecast pencils out to a carryout of 146 million bushels for new crop but an undertone of rain potential kept this market in check.

Funds are estimated to have bought 7,000 bean contracts, 3,000 soymeal contracts, and sold 9,000 contracts of soyoil. We note, 800 November 1520/1660 call spreads were bought today.

China is said to have bought 3 cargoes of soybeans on Wednesday from Brazil for August shipment. We hear two of them were switches, with another cargo of US Gulf washed out for the last half of July and one for August. This makes 5 cargoes of US beans for old crop that have been washed out at the Gulf this week.

Thailand is looking to tender for soybeans for October, Mexico is in for soymeal for October, and Turkey is in for July 5th for 18,000 tons of sun oil for July/August shipment. Argentina registered 397,064 tons of meal for export on Wednesday.

India’s meteorology department showed the June monsoon rains were 8% plus below average, with cotton and soybean areas main production region down 54% from normal.

Indonesia says it will increase export quotas to companies that sell packaged cooking oil at the same price as bulk cooking oil, with consideration of also raising the biodiesel mandate to B35 from B30.

StatsCan estimates canola acreage at 21.3 million acres versus April estimate of 20.9 million acres. The USDA crush report is due out on Friday afternoon and average guess is 181.9 million bushels which would be a record for the month of June?

Note, there is about a $1.15 spread between July soybeans and the August contract. The daily August floater is 21% positive, the timer is 3% positive, and the TRx is positive with room to push. We note, the August trending averages are negative and the close was just below the 10 day moving average and the 3 day.

The inner-day 60 minute floater is 3% negative, the timer is 5% negative and the TRx is negative. The inner-day 180 floater is 20% negative, the timer is 32% negative and the TRx is negative with the stochastic needing to narrow its gap between the K and D. This has work to do.

For tonight and tomorrow, November soybeans have resistance at 1495 and 1530 with support at 1438 and 1416.

Note, for the first day of delivery, there were no soybean deliveries, no soymeal, and no soy oil deliveries.

Lastly, Minnesota lost 500,000 acres, South Dakota lost 200,000, and North Dakota lost 1.1 million acres per intentions. The talk at the end of the day was “it sure looks like we lost 2 million tons of new crop US production potential, but we probably gained a million tons of old crop Brazilian production and have lost close to 2 MMT of Chinese demand. Perhaps, but the market needs to get on farm stocks off farm. Come Tuesday, it will be all about weather.

Spreaders are all putting on long soybeans and short corn spreads, which may be an overloaded spread by Friday’s close. As the saying goes….”beware of the crowded trade.”

 

WHEAT:     Wheat took the USDA numbers in stride and then traders turned sellers. Chicago lost to the KC which is seasonal but KC lost to Minneapolis. All in all, wheat lost to corn which is also seasonal.

Funds are thought to have sold 12,000 contracts today.

All wheat planted was 47.1 million acres compared to March estimate of 47.4 million acres. Harvested acres were left unchanged at 37.6 million acres.

Egypt’s GASC bought 815 tmt of wheat for August – October with 240 tmt of it from Romania,   350 tmt from France, 175 tmt from Russia, and one cargo from Bulgaria.

Pakistan is in for 500 tmt of wheat for August – September shipment, Bangladesh in for 50 tmt on July 5th, and again on July 14th for another 50 tmt. Jordon is in on July 5th for 120 tmt of wheat for October shipment. Wheat had better export sales that what traders expected.

Ukrainians are said to have chased the Russian military off of Snake Island, and the Ukrainian rail operator increased rail tariffs sharply with immediate effect. A grain corridor may run into the talk of six Russian nuclear submarines prowling “La Mer Noire.” French wheat premiums are said to be strong.

Agritel called the wheat crop in Romania at 9.3 MMT compared to last year at 11.2 MMT. In Brazil, the official Deral of the state of Parana called their wheat crop 3.86 MMT or down 200,000 mt.

Weighing on Chicago wheat was hefty deliveries of 1,658 contracts with the Andersons thought to be the ones putting them out. There was only 1 delivery per Kansas City and 184 Minneapolis.

Lastly, there is only 93 million bushels left on farm as of June 1, compares to 142 million a year ago. Today’s report should not affect the WASDE report in July which will all be about winter wheat yields. HRW yields decline and SRW yields increase? Today was a seasonal low timing for wheat….we shall see. Our daily indicators are quite low.

For tonight and tomorrow, September Chicago wheat has resistance at 926 and 961 with support at 868 and 845. KC September has resistance at 993 and 1027 with support at 937 and 915.  

 

LIVESTOCK:     We will update cattle on Friday.

       

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-30-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Markets carry a bearish tone into the USDA Quarterly Stocks and Final Planting Reports due at 11:00 CT.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-29-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 29, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

NOTE:     Obama’s former top economic advisor commented that the danger of the U.S. economy returning to a 1970s style stagflation scenario is the highest it has been in decades. An aggressive Federal Reserve, rising interest rates and persistently high inflation have raised the possibility of a period of stagnant economic growth and high consumer prices.  “It’s the biggest risk of stagflation we’ve had in a long time. But it’s not a guarantee that the economy goes into recession. Consumers still have a lot of money and they are still spending. So, there’s still some hope for the U.S. economy.”

 

WEATHER:     From our South American weather gurus, we share: (we had this in Monday evening’s commentary and decided to leave into tonight’s commentary for those that may have missed)

 

Top-10 Weather Bullets On Our Mind

  1. Here now comes the “inhale” of the Bow Echo Wave, with its cooling even into the South and East, but let’s spell it out — the Northern Hemisphere will likely see a 10-20% increase in cooling demand in the month of July:  We will see a crescendo in the warmth in July in North America, Europe and East Asia, which is quite rare due to a normal planetary sequence of troughs and ridges, but we are not in a so-called normal situation because the pores of the planet are closing ‘inward’ meaning there is less solar radiation input leaving the planet so we are seeing a build-up of heat, but ironically, because Mother Nature needs to balance-out the heat transfer (which is what keeps Earth habitable), She is actually making the cold areas not only stronger / more intense, but also earlier in the warm season, and this is very likely why we are seeing such a major chill-down in the Arctic (as well as in other areas of the globe like many areas from South Australia to southern countries in Africa to southern nations of South America) even in summer due to there being an ELECTROMAGNETIC BLOCKAGE.
  2. The SW Loop Circulation Wheel is like a fisherman with Mother Nature throwing the net northward:  Over the next 2 weeks we will see the Gulf of Mexico become totally dominated with positive ions as the east-to-west and north-to-south breadth of the SW Loop increases.  This heat wheel is not only going to increase the temperatures from normal in early July to above normal by the 8th (of July), but it’s going to start spreading these hotter impulses northward.
  3. The Argentina-USA weather teleconnection is revving-up again:  It’s a tough winter in Argentina; cold conditions started down there in their fall (May).  When Argentina gets colder as the Southern Anomaly (SAMA) expands eastward into South America, it’s 3-4 weeks later where the heat becomes intense and unbearable in the Central USA.  The bottom line is that the 2H July is going to be a steamy hot one in the Nation’s Midsection — aka Plains including Texas, Midwest, and MS River Valley with ripples of heat increasing eastward by the end of July.
  4. Keeping a watchful eye on the increasing SW Monsoon:  Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado will all see above normal rains over the next 2+ weeks as the intensity of the US SW Monsoon increases above normal, and this is happening because the Bow Echo Wave has taken an inhale through early July.  What could happen with upside risk is that even though Nebraska and particularly Kansas have gone dry again, the Monsoon rains could “accumulate” in force and push further eastward into KS & NE, and could even hit parts of the Central Midwest, which would be a blessing, of which this meteorological connective bridge event happening is currently at a 28% probability (and rising).
  5. Even though it’s far away, the big monster lurking in the North Atlantic is very significant to Germany and other European nations:  The large negative-ion (blue-shaded) gyre in the middle of the North Atlantic is the Atlantic Cold Pool, and it is going to become a pretty infamous (looking ahead into the future) low generator wind tunnel that will “re-create” the above normal wind speeds into West-NW Europe accompanied by stormier & colder periods this Fall into the 2022-2023 winter.  So, while natural gas is a rare commodity in Germany right now, it could become even more rare if key European nations don’t increase their stockpile of classic sources of heat.
  6. The significance of heat in Alaska:  way above normal temperatures, even into the 80s, into Alaska means the bigger positive-ion wheel of the Mother Bow Echo Wave is starting to rev-up to cause a surge in heat after the Fourth of July, not before, and especially turning hotter the middle of the 2nd week of July.  For the last couple of months, we have talked about the Mother Bow “spitting” streams of positive ions into Alaska, and finally now, they are gathering in NW Canada where it will be warmer than the US Upper Midwest at times over the next 10 days.  This stream of warmth will push southward out of NW Canada, and will attract the heat pressing northward out of Mexico and Texas in upcoming weeks giving America its warmer than normal July.
  7. Greenland chilling-down should be in everyone’s rear-view mirror:  conditions are like early fall now in early summer, and these below normal temperatures are coming from the Siberian MPV which is getting fed by the intensifying Arctic Compression Low (ACL).  This ACL will drop temperatures suddenly over NW Canada (where it’s very warm now into mid- or even late July) and will produce an early Fall season over a large part of West-Central and South-Central Canada with the cooler than usual airmasses starting to arrive into the Northern Plains in early to mid-August, and getting stronger on the cooler side in September with then record-breaking cold at times in October into the High Plains, Rockies and western Midwest.
  8. While the heat comes into the USA in crescendo pulsations in the 1H Summer, Mother Nature is busy preparing the ingredients for the 2H Summer agenda.  There’s going to be some major shifts around the border of USA and Canada during the 1st and 2nd weeks of August.  As we mentioned previously, the chillier air from the High North is already leapfrogging southward at night into the Northern US planting the seeds to change for late summer into fall.
  9. Oh no, not another Russian connection.  What is happening in Central Russia has repercussions for the USA in about 2 months from now:  The Central Russia cold spot that we have been talking about in this ‘Top-10’ before has dug much further southward and opened-up a direct passageway to the ACL (Arctic Compression Low).  This shows us how strong the ACL truly is, and it’s expected to do the same in North America in the 2H August into the Fall.  
  10. Solar flares over the next month will cause a lot of shifting of smaller atmospheric oscillations as well as an uptick in extreme weather events:  These solar flares will add more heat to continents (aka larger areas) that are currently positive-ion dominated — like North America, Europe AND China, especially northern latitudes in these different areas, but they will also cause an increase in “pulse” events like more hail in sudden thunderstorms that will “come out of nowhere”, and again, even in positive-ion areas, or derechos, even duststorms with a rapid increase in wind speed.  See this:  https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/giant-sunspot-currently-facing-earth-and-still-growing-capable-emitting-powerful-solar.  There is a lot of sensationalism in this article, but as big sunspot AR3038 is about to rotate over the northwestern limb of the sun it will become magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral (which we will speak more about later in the week).  Energetic particles accelerated by flares will be funneled in our direction despite the fact the sunspot is facing almost directly away from us — and THAT is what will cause the prementioned effects / impacts.

 

CORN:     Corn futures seem to have become the step-child without a friend. Futures caught selling again today as traders look at the average guess on acres for a gain of 371,000 acres over the March 31st number to 89.861 million acres.  Adding to the negative attitude is the average guess of June 1st stocks at 4.343 billion bushels compared to a year ago at 4.111 billion bushels. Estimates have that on farm supplies may be 25-30% of the crop still under control by farmers.  The big surprise for corn may be if acres are not much higher than the March Prospective Plantings estimate of 89.490 million acres  and more so, if June 1st quarterly stocks implies less in farmers hands. If so, this would explain the lack of farmer cash sales. However, we suspect farmers remain reluctant to market much cash old crop grain until they get a better handle on reproduction for new crop goes in July.

(we shared this in the commentary on Monday evening and am sharing again) Has corn seen the high for the year? While a possibility, we note that in the past 11 years ending in a “2”, so from 1912 through 2012, we note, 8 out of 11 saw corn make the yearly high in July, August, or September. In 2012, the high was in August. In 2 of the 3 odd years, the high was in May. In those two years, 1982 and 1992, the subsequent low was in October, and November/December.  Of the 11 years, all had lows in October (3 years), November (3 years), and December (5 years).  Therefore, it seems for those who need to move grain at harvest, any rally effort in the next month should be used to lock in grain.

Looking ahead into a year ending in a “3”, only one from 1913 forward had a high in the first quarter (March). The low for the year tended to come in the 4th quarter 9 years out of 11. While moving ahead in time, we just wanted to offer a potential view of timing. A start anyway.

 We note, US farmers may be more apprehensive in making cash sales of new crop corn at harvest with uncertainty over costs of inputs for 2023/24 crop. We have heard disappointing reports of farmers delivering old crop corn that was sold horribly cheap. (some of these cash grain marketers need a lesson in reviewing history and the need to become more conservative in making cash sales after a sideways base building market has occurred more than 6 years) (there is a technical theory called “wall to wall.” Adding to uncertainty of making cash sales is the Ukrainian – Russian war.

Brazil is estimated to harvest 91.2 MMT of safrinha corn which would bring the total of the two crops to 116.1 MMT which is right in line with the USDA current estimate. Safrinha planted area was adjusted higher to 17.9 million hectares from 17.6 million hectares previously estimated in May. This compares to last year’s acreage of 16 million hectares and accounts for much of the increase in production.

Keep in mind, June 1st corn acres are typically higher on June 1st than trade expectations. We note, farmers in the heart of the Midwest caught up quickly but the farmers in North Dakota and Minnesota suffered under too cool and wet weather conditions. In North Dakota, we hear of corn acres switching to barley and soybean acres being switched to sunflowers.

Bottom line, the market is pricing in the bearish implications of the reports due out on Thursday and once the report is out, futures will trade it for the rest of the session. Should the report be a bullish surprise, futures will catch a sharp rally but, Friday’s trade will be one of playing “chicken” to see who has nerve to go long or short into the weekend. There are no markets on Monday, Fourth of July evening. Markets will open regular time on Tuesday morning.

For tonight and tomorrow, September corn has resistance at 670 and 675 with support at 660 and 655.  December corn has resistance at 660 and 665 with support at 650 and 645.

Keep in mind, cycle window timing came in on cue and corn has tried to no avail to rally. Should the market take out the low of 644.25, the implication would be one of weakness or power to the downside. Should this occur, a buy stop at 665 should be in place as it would turn the trend higher. On the flipside, the trending stop of 665 basis December would be doable on a normal day. Should that be filled first and the market slides south, a different trending stop would be added in on Thursday evening’s trade. Flexibility needed.

We share below the updated corn chart with the Elliot Wave counts below:

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans continue to catch buying. Thus far, the “up Monday, up Tuesday, up every day of the week except one” is in play this week. Will Friday be that day?

Adding incentive for buyers, are friendly expectations for Thursday’s reports. Traders’ average guess on acres is 90.466 million acres, down 509,000 acres. We would not be surprised if acres were equal to or less than the March 31st estimate. Then, the June 1st quarterly stocks will certainly have trade attention (and this may be more important than acres)as it will show what was left in farmers’ hands at that time. Noting, cash sales have occurred since June 1st, but are stocks 10-15% ? Talk of pipeline supplies may see some confirmation in this report?

Keep in mind, soybean acres tend to come in less than trade expectations in the June acreage report?

Brazil is forecast to produce126.1 MMT of soybeans which is an increase from their May forecast of 124.8 MMT. Still, the volume is down from that of last year and also down from the optimistic outlook in last December at 142.05 MMT. In 2020/21, Brazil produced a record crop of 138.8 MMT. Brazilian soybean planted area increased to 41.6 million hectares from the previous estimate of 41.2 million hectares and is 6.1% above last year’s 39.29 million hectares. Dry weather affected the crop.

We share, as of Tuesday, some 51 ships were waiting at the largest Latin American port of Santos where products, including grains have more than doubled the 19 ships seen a year ago in the same period. Many container and ships already have encountered difficulties in the release of cargoes in destination countries because of delays in issuing the certificates, impacting the receipt of goods, according to Anec. Port auditors are making an effort to address demand of exporters  amidst difficulties due to the increase in Brazilian exports and the reduced number of professionals to make them viable at the port. Each soybean shipment represents around $40 billion. According to the national union of federal agricultural inspectors, ANFFA, the issue of certificates for the release of cargos, which used to take 72 hours, is now taking up to 14 days.

Importantly, there tends to be talk that China is on the verge of stepping up buying of corn and soybeans to replenish depleted reserves but thus far, there seems to be little evidence of such occurring just yet. Stay tune. This would not surprise with China now looking to reopen and get to business as usual?

A bit of weather talk, Commodity Weather Group ranks this summer as the driest thus far, since 1979 for the Delta and at record dry levels in the Southeast. In addition, temperatures have ranked 5th hottest for the same period in the Southeast and are tied for 3rd hottest in the Delta. Rains are forecast for the next two weeks in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. The Delta will badly need rain by mid-July.

We share below a chart of soymeal via August contract and wonder if this market hit a peak today to slip towards a Wave 5 low?

 

Soy oil daily chart via September contract:

Brazil is estimated to harvest 91.2 MMT of safrinha corn which would bring the total of the two crops to 116.1 MMT which is right in line with the USDA current estimate. Safrinha planted area was adjusted higher to 17.9 million hectares from 17.6 million hectares previously estimated in May. This compares to last year’s acreage of 16 million hectares and accounts for much of the increase in production.

For tonight and tomorrow, September soybeans have resistance at 1506 and 1515 with support at 1477 and 1457.  November soybeans resistance is 1490 and 1499 with support at 1460 and 1439.

 

WHEAT:     Traders are looking for a friendly report on Thursday. We note, basis the September KC contract, the daily technical floater is 5% negative and the timer is 1% negative with the TRx turning positive and lots of room to run. Here too, the daily stochastic is appearing that it will turn up with the K at 5% and the D at 9%. The inner-day 60 minute floater and timer are negative with the timer at 58% and the floater at 28%. The TRx is losing negative momentum but has not turned positive. Here again, the stochastic on the hourly is wide spread between the K and D and this implies the indicator will spend more time aligning. Adding to apprehension is the inner-day 180 floater is negative at 82% while, the timer is 99% positive and the TRx is negative with room to decline.

Basis September KC wheat, a smaller Wave 4 is 943.5. A larger Wave 3 is 953 and a Wave 4 is out of the question.  

Bunge denied plans to scale back in Russia and sell the Russian subsidiary. Bunge CIS is owner of one of the largest oil extraction plants in the Russian Federation. Earlier today, Interfax (Russian news agency) reported that Bunge was reducing its presence in Russia and selling Bunge CIS, citing sources in the Russian agricultural market. Bunge CIS is based in Moscow and operates mainly in vegoils market in Russia. It owns most of the popular brands of Russian cooking oils, including Oleyna sunflower oil, and Ideal olive oil.

In February, the US conglomerate temporarily suspended its Ukraine-based operations at processing facilities in Mykolaiv and Dnipro, after Russia invaded Ukraine and closed all company offices across the country. The facility in Mykolaiv was damaged last week when Russian forces bombed the port. Bunge also operates a dry corn milling facility in Vinnytsya region, southwest of the capital Kyiv.

Ongoing dryness in Argentine wheat may force WASDE to cut current 20 MMT 2023 wheat production forecast versus last year’s 22 MMT. Trade talk is that the crop may slip below 17 MMT. Additionally, WASDE’s 40 MMT Russian 2022/23 wheat export forecast may be high if sanctions/shipping glitches persist.

Many continue to assess or question the extend of Ukraine’s 2023 crop winter wheat seeding in view of ongoing war. Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Taiwan are shopping around for wheat.

Egypt’s buying arm GASC will allow Russian offers in their tender. US SRW seems to be the cheapest wheat globally otherwise and midday losses in US futures were capped by active global demand and the dry weather conditions in Argentina.

Mother Nature continues to pick away at global supplies. The worst drought in 70 years has meant salt water from the Adriatic Sea is flowing back into the sluggish Po, Italy’s longest river, doing further damage to crops hit early by summer heatwaves. The flow of sea water into the Po makes irrigation almost impossible in parts of Italy’s agricultural heartland, as it risks burning the already parched crops. Some four kilometers from where the Po meets the sea in the small village ofScardovari in northeast Italy, waves crash through the anti-salt barriers and push downstream. This is leading to some of the fields with no plants and others where they are growing regularly.

For tonight and tomorrow, September Chicago wheat has resistance at 949 and 965 with support at 922 and 911.  KC September wheat has resistance at 1006 and 1018 with support at 984 and 974. The next major cycle window is July 28th.

 

LIVESTOCK:      

The Quarterly All Hogs and Pigs Report was released this afternoon:

All hogs and pigs were down 1% from last year at 99%.  Kept for breeding inventory is estimated to be down 1% at 99% from last year but up 1% from the last quarter.  Marketing was estimated at down 1% or 99% of last year and we note, down slightly from the last quarter. March – May hog inventory was down 1% from 2021. Sows farrowing during the past quarter was down 1% from 2021. (Seems like 99% is the lucky number on this report) Sows farrowing during this past quarter represented 49% of the breeding herd. Average pigs per litter was 11.00 for the March-May period, compared to 10.95 last quarter.

Contraction is continuing but we also note, besides the US seeing contraction, so is Europe and China. While, this seems friendly, the report was pretty much as expected or neutral. Speaking of China, hog prices are surging and to the tune of 60% since last April. This implies liquidation probably has come to an end. Recall, the Chinese government was buying domestic pork for reserves in efforts to support prices.

Basis the August contract we note, the weekly indicators show the floater at 1% negative, the timer at 3% negative, and the stochastic still has some work to do but that does not mean the market cannot muster a reprieve rally. The daily chart offers some potential of trying to find support but our focus is on the weekly chart continuous.

The continuous August monthly chart indicates this market still needs to do some work. Keep in mind, with Thursday being the last day of June, as the calendar rolls over, so will the indicators move on both the weekly and monthly. The 3-month moving average is bearish but we notice the trending moving averages are still positive.

For now, we are not involved in this market.

Cash cattle in Iowa traded from 148 to 158 at the Tama auction on 400 head. However, the woes of Texas remains a struggle with cash ending the day at 137 and this is most likely due to too many cattle available.  

Our view is that cattle will continue to dwindle lower into August for a final low.  Some are calling for a seasonal low but again, we need to see something technically to make us willing to be a buyer. Longer term we like the 2023 contracts from April and through October and even December but we are not heavily committed as we think there is time to build that position.

 

 

 

    

 

       

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-29-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Positioning before Thursday’s USDA reports  and then a long weekend.  Who has nerve to go through the reports long or short?


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-28-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans remaining strong and any pullback that turns back through the high of today is a power signal.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-27-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 27, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

NOTE:     Obama’s former top economic advisor commented that the danger of the U.S. economy returning to a 1970s style stagflation scenario is the highest it has been in decades. An aggressive Federal Reserve, rising interest rates and persistently high inflation have raised the possibility of a period of stagnant economic growth and high consumer prices.  “It’s the biggest risk of stagflation we’ve had in a long time. But it’s not a guarantee that the economy goes into recession. Consumers still have a lot of money and they are still spending. So, there’s still some hope for the U.S. economy.”

We noticed the June 1-7 Epoch Times newspaper had an article that started on the front page and covered to full pages inside that prices for groceries may double this fall.

Lastly, there will be an audio in the morning but there will not be a written comment in the evening due to my needing to be at a meeting in the early afternoon and I won’t be back until early evening. Thanks for understanding.

 

WEATHER:     From our South American weather gurus, we share:

For those on the Plains, the heat might get a bit ‘scary’ in the 2nd week of July, I’m warning you this right now — and “strands” of that heat will be “floating” eastward into the Midwest.  For the next 2 weeks we are showing you an overall pattern of net drying which aligns to the long-range, but a scattered shower can come through at the weekend, it’s just that the probabilities are not more than 41% at best for most areas.  The National Weather Service puts in a 30% chance of rain almost every day late week but it’s to cover themselves.  Rain in southern Iowa and central Nebraska is all a blessing, and this will come from ‘bubbles’ of instability rising from the SW Monsoon.

Short-term northern coolness even penetrating into the South will soon exit in early July with sudden ‘pops’ in temperature as heat veins associated with the Bow Echo Wave will finally join with the Mother Bow Echo on 7/7 pushing in hotter conditions from the Pacific into Canada making a huge North American circulation of above normal temps and longer drying periods in the Central US for most of July, pushing E at times, causing some of the flip-flopping public models to go bullish weather soon.

Top-10 Weather Bullets On Our Mind

  1. Here now comes the “inhale” of the Bow Echo Wave, with its cooling even into the South and East, but let’s spell it out — the Northern Hemisphere will likely see a 10-20% increase in cooling demand in the month of July:  We will see a crescendo in the warmth in July in North America, Europe and East Asia, which is quite rare due to a normal planetary sequence of troughs and ridges, but we are not in a so-called normal situation because the pores of the planet are closing ‘inward’ meaning there is less solar radiation input leaving the planet so we are seeing a build-up of heat, but ironically, because Mother Nature needs to balance-out the heat transfer (which is what keeps Earth habitable), She is actually making the cold areas not only stronger / more intense, but also earlier in the warm season, and this is very likely why we are seeing such a major chill-down in the Arctic (as well as in other areas of the globe like many areas from South Australia to southern countries in Africa to southern nations of South America) even in summer due to there being an ELECTROMAGNETIC BLOCKAGE.
  2. The SW Loop Circulation Wheel is like a fisherman with Mother Nature throwing the net northward:  Over the next 2 weeks we will see the Gulf of Mexico become totally dominated with positive ions as the east-to-west and north-to-south breadth of the SW Loop increases.  This heat wheel is not only going to increase the temperatures from normal in early July to above normal by the 8th (of July), but it’s going to start spreading these hotter impulses northward.
  3. The Argentina-USA weather teleconnection is revving-up again:  It’s a tough winter in Argentina; cold conditions started down there in their fall (May).  When Argentina gets colder as the Southern Anomaly (SAMA) expands eastward into South America, it’s 3-4 weeks later where the heat becomes intense and unbearable in the Central USA.  The bottom line is that the 2H July is going to be a steamy hot one in the Nation’s Midsection — aka Plains including Texas, Midwest, and MS River Valley with ripples of heat increasing eastward by the end of July.
  4. Keeping a watchful eye on the increasing SW Monsoon:  Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado will all see above normal rains over the next 2+ weeks as the intensity of the US SW Monsoon increases above normal, and this is happening because the Bow Echo Wave has taken an inhale through early July.  What could happen with upside risk is that even though Nebraska and particularly Kansas have gone dry again, the Monsoon rains could “accumulate” in force and push further eastward into KS & NE, and could even hit parts of the Central Midwest, which would be a blessing, of which this meteorological connective bridge event happening is currently at a 28% probability (and rising).
  5. Even though it’s far away, the big monster lurking in the North Atlantic is very significant to Germany and other European nations:  The large negative-ion (blue-shaded) gyre in the middle of the North Atlantic is the Atlantic Cold Pool, and it is going to become a pretty infamous (looking ahead into the future) low generator wind tunnel that will “re-create” the above normal wind speeds into West-NW Europe accompanied by stormier & colder periods this Fall into the 2022-2023 winter.  So, while natural gas is a rare commodity in Germany right now, it could become even more rare if key European nations don’t increase their stockpile of classic sources of heat.
  6. The significance of heat in Alaska:  way above normal temperatures, even into the 80s, into Alaska means the bigger positive-ion wheel of the Mother Bow Echo Wave is starting to rev-up to cause a surge in heat after the Fourth of July, not before, and especially turning hotter the middle of the 2nd week of July.  For the last couple of months, we have talked about the Mother Bow “spitting” streams of positive ions into Alaska, and finally now, they are gathering in NW Canada where it will be warmer than the US Upper Midwest at times over the next 10 days.  This stream of warmth will push southward out of NW Canada, and will attract the heat pressing northward out of Mexico and Texas in upcoming weeks giving America its warmer than normal July.
  7. Greenland chilling-down should be in everyone’s rear-view mirror:  conditions are like early fall now in early summer, and these below normal temperatures are coming from the Siberian MPV which is getting fed by the intensifying Arctic Compression Low (ACL).  This ACL will drop temperatures suddenly over NW Canada (where it’s very warm now into mid- or even late July) and will produce an early Fall season over a large part of West-Central and South-Central Canada with the cooler than usual airmasses starting to arrive into the Northern Plains in early to mid-August, and getting stronger on the cooler side in September with then record-breaking cold at times in October into the High Plains, Rockies and western Midwest.
  8. While the heat comes into the USA in crescendo pulsations in the 1H Summer, Mother Nature is busy preparing the ingredients for the 2H Summer agenda.  There’s going to be some major shifts around the border of USA and Canada during the 1st and 2nd weeks of August.  As we mentioned previously, the chillier air from the High North is already leapfrogging southward at night into the Northern US planting the seeds to change for late summer into fall.
  9. Oh no, not another Russian connection.  What is happening in Central Russia has repercussions for the USA in about 2 months from now:  The Central Russia cold spot that we have been talking about in this ‘Top-10’ before has dug much further southward and opened-up a direct passageway to the ACL (Arctic Compression Low).  This shows us how strong the ACL truly is, and it’s expected to do the same in North America in the 2H August into the Fall.  
  10. Solar flares over the next month will cause a lot of shifting of smaller atmospheric oscillations as well as an uptick in extreme weather events:  These solar flares will add more heat to continents (aka larger areas) that are currently positive-ion dominated — like North America, Europe AND China, especially northern latitudes in these different areas, but they will also cause an increase in “pulse” events like more hail in sudden thunderstorms that will “come out of nowhere”, and again, even in positive-ion areas, or derechos, even duststorms with a rapid increase in wind speed.  See this:  https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/giant-sunspot-currently-facing-earth-and-still-growing-capable-emitting-powerful-solar.  There is a lot of sensationalism in this article, but as big sunspot AR3038 is about to rotate over the northwestern limb of the sun it will become magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral (which we will speak more about later in the week).  Energetic particles accelerated by flares will be funneled in our direction despite the fact the sunspot is facing almost directly away from us — and THAT is what will cause the prementioned effects / impacts.

 

CORN:     Cycle window timing is due on Tuesday and this means a low could be seen today, tonight, or tomorrow which could include the start of the night session.  This is because the timing is done in calendar days and not trading days. When working with cycles, the timing can window around the actual date. However, more times than not, the cycle will tend to come in on the actual date. Corn made new weekly lows via the December contract.

Has corn seen the high for the year? While a possibility, we note that in the past 11 years ending in a “2”, so from 1912 through 2012, we note, 8 out of 11 saw corn make the yearly high in July, August, or September. In 2012, the high was in August. In 2 of the 3 odd years, the high was in May. In those two years, 1982 and 1992, the subsequent low was in October, and November/December.  Of the 11 years, all had lows in October (3 years), November (3 years), and December (5 years).  Therefore,  it seems for those who need to move grain at harvest, any rally effort in the next month or three should be used to lock in grain.

Looking ahead into a year ending in a “3”, only one from 1913 forward had a high in the first quarter (March). The low for the year tended to come in the 4th quarter 9 years out of 11. While moving ahead in time, we just wanted to offer a potential view of timing. A start anyway.

Corn good to excellent declined more than the trade expected. Traders were expecting a 1 to 2% decline and conditions fell 3%. This should prompt a higher opening this evening.

We share, nationwide, topsoil moisture condition lost 8% from last week and down 2% from last year for this week at 57%. Indiana is 42% adequate to surplus, Illinois is 69% adequate to surplus, Kansas is 57%, Minnesota is 56%, and Nebraska is 43% adequate to surplus condition. Only 7% of the state of Texas is adequate to surplus with 59% of the state short to very short. Indiana is 43% short and 15% very short. Illinois is 22% short and 9% very short. Iowa is 22% short and 6% very short. Illinois is 73% adequate subsoil moisture. Indiana is 50% adequate for subsoil moisture. Iowa is 22% short in subsoil moisture and 68% adequate. We suspect these numbers will change dramatically through July.

There seems to be no sign of the Biden administration opening up US energy production and the US blocked Germany’s efforts to trim bio-fuel mandate to free up grains for human use. There was also talk at the G-7 meeting of putting in place a ceiling on crude oil but we don’t see that as going anywhere.

Bottom line, the trade looks increasingly comfortable with accepting low US carryover stocks against the talk of looming recession and reduced Chinese imports of both corn and soybeans. We suspect the forecast of Brazilian corn production at 116 MMT (USDA) and Conab at 115.2 MMT is putting a cloud over the corn futures on anticipation that Brazilian corn will compete for exports towards late summer?

For tonight and tomorrow, July corn has resistance at 749 and 755 with support at 734 and 725.

December corn has resistance at 662 and 670 with support at 644 and 634.

 

SOYBEANS:     While soybeans vacillated on Sunday evening and through today, the market ended higher with July up 19.75 cents, August up 8.75 cents, and November up 8.5 cents. The market was catching buying. If it had not been for the weakness in corn and wheat, this market may have rallied more. Soymeal saw the lead contract rally $10.10 higher and August up $3.20. Soyoil closed up $107 basis the July contract and August was up 92.

Soybean planting progress was estimated at 98% which is 1% higher than the 5-year average. Indiana and Iowa are completely planted while Illinois is 99% complete. Kansas is 92% complete. Minnesota is 100% planted while, North Dakota is 97% complete which is 2% behind that of the 5-year average. The state has done well to catch up albeit, quite late.

Soybean emergence is on par with the 5-year average at 91%. However, North Dakota is 14% behind normal on emergence at 80%.

We note, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas are well above average in soybeans blooming.

Soybean crop conditions slipped 3% in good to excellent.    

Talk estimates farmers are still holding 10-15% of old crop soybeans while holding 25-30% old crop corn. High temps are stressing Delta crops while, maximum irrigation is underway and we note, the corn is pollinated. Even after the heavy rains in eastern Iowa and western Illinois, it is estimated 35% of the Midwest crop remains under stress. Rains in the forecast in the 6-15 and early 11-15 day forecast is expected to trim the drier areas to one-fourth.

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1649 and 1663 with support at 1606 and 1577.  November soybeans resistance is at 1450 and 1466 with support at 1409 and 1384.

 

WHEAT:     Winter wheat is 95% headed out versus average of 98%. Montana is 55% headed compared to normal of 72%. Idaho is 75% headed compared to average of 90%. The region is quite dry.

41% of the winter wheat is harvested  which is 6% ahead of normal due to heat. Kansas is 59% harvested versus average pace of 40% while, Oklahoma is 90% harvested versus normal pace of 82%. Missouri is 65% harvested compared to normal of 58%. Indiana is 32% complete versus average pace of 37%.  Illinois wheat harvest is 66% versus average pace of 57%. These areas are dealing with dryness.

Winter wheat crop condition remained unchanged from last week at 30% good to excellent. Conditions for this week a year ago was 48%.

As for spring wheat, North Dakota was the only state running behind at 97% compared to normal 100% on emergence. The condition of the crop remained unchanged from last week at 59% good to excellent. Last year at this time the crop was 20% good to excellent due to drought.

The barley crop condition was up 2% good to excellent compared to last week at 53%. A year ago, the crop at this time was 31% good to excellent.

Basis September KC wheat, a smaller Wave 4 is 943.5. A larger Wave 3 is 953 and a Wave 4 is out of the question. Keep in mind, cycle window timing is due tomorrow and wheat is breaking into the cycle. We would not be a seller of this complex and would entertain a long probe if for nothing else a short term trade.

For tonight and tomorrow,  July Chicago wheat has resistance at 730 and 755 with support at 890 and 875.  July KC wheat has resistance at 994 and 1014 with support at 962 and 950.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Friday’s Cattle on Feed marketing number was a tad disappointing while, slaughter pace seems to have picked up in June. The boxed beef is holding in the lower to mid-260s for the last week of June. With the three day holiday weekend coming up, some plants are giving workers the long weekend off. This should bespeak of a smaller kill.

Prices remain sloppy in the south but higher in the north. We suspect the north remains firm while the south (mainly Texas) remains soft. As for the futures market, August cattle traded not far from the lows thus far for this year. Live cattle tends to reflect expectation of seasonal weakness in the cash markets and in boxed beef during July.

We remain positive to downright bullish cattle in 2023 and especially the deeper into the year. Lots of time remains between now and then, and we are watching for the right moments to be buying into the deferred.

With corn prices remaining weak all day, feeder cattle found strength and pushed higher. Pasture and range conditions remained unchanged from last week at 31% good to excellent. The same week a year ago was also 31%.

The Quarterly All Hogs and Pigs Report is due out on Wednesday at 2 p.m. CT. Here are the trade guesses:

       

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Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-27-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans are catching buying.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-24-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 24, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

WEATHER:     Drew Lerner came out with an update to the weather outlook and comparison to the year of 1956. This is a small part of the outlook but we thought we would share this portion.

  

 Kansas City, June 24 (World Weather Inc.) – The 2020-2022 drought in western North America has been largely driven by a multi-year La Nina event coupled with the negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) both of which were occurring very near and immediately after the solar minimum that occurred in 2020. This combination of weather events has occurred only a few times in U.S. recorded history, but in each event, summer dryness was an issue in the central parts of the United States. The impact of central U.S. drought has already been speculated upon by many meteorologists and commodity trade analysts, but for a while this spring the conclusion by many was that a full blown serious drought might evolve that would result in shorter U.S. production and a worsening world shortage of grain and oilseeds. 1956 was a year very similar to this one, but the impact on the marketplace was not nearly as bullish for futures prices as one might think. U.S. grain and oilseed production in 1956 was the best year since 1948, according to the USDA even though crop moisture stress and dryness were an issue in the Plains and portions of the western Corn Belt. 2022 production will not be as good as that of 1956 relative to previous years, but a full blown drought and serious production cuts like 2012 are certainly not expected either.

World Weather, Inc. –

 

CORN:     While traders tend to watch the short term forecasts more, the extended 8-15 day forecast showed a high pressure ridge compressed to the south and west into early next week which would allow for upper 70’s to lower 90’s into early in the week ahead. Rains appear to be light be it the Eastern Midwest or the Delta. Below normal rainfall is forecast for the next ten days. The European and GFS models appear to be in good agreement. As for the extended forecast, both models agree on a high pressure ridge, strong in nature but differ on placement. The GFS places the ridge over the Southeastern U.S. while the European model places the ridge over the Southern Plains and Intermountain West.

We share, the Farmer’s Almanac summer forecast excerpt: “During the middle to the latter part of July or the Dog Days of Summer, most of the nation will experience brutally hot conditions. Many localities during that time will be dealing with highs in the 90s and even triple digits. August will continue to be blistering hot over the central and western states, but after mid-month, the worst of the heat should thankfully be behind us.”

Having cratered every day this week, corn futures caught short covering ahead of the weekend. We note, Dalian September corn futures fell 15.25 cents on Friday following the sharply lower U.S. market on Thursday to close at $10.695. World values remain quite strong and I noticed an area cash buyer offering to pay $8.16 for corn on Thursday. The break is one of the sharpest seen in quite some time which is giving end-users a chance to buy cash needs. December corn fell $1.05 in three sessions.

Crop conditions are expected to fall 2% on Monday’s report. The rains are fickle and scattered with some areas catching heavy rains and then other areas being missed or catching light showers.

Traders will be interested in the acreage numbers on next Thursday’s final planting report but, they will also focus on global stocks to usage ratios and especially on exporting countries.

The past week through the 16th, exporters sold 26 million bushels of corn compared to 6 million bushels the week prior.

Eastern and Central Europe is forecast to deal with heat through July 4th. This could affect corn production in Hungary, Serbia, and Romania. These three countries account for 30% of European corn production.

International Grains Council raised its forecast for Ukrainian corn acreage which upped its global corn supply outlook following a better-than-expected sowing season this spring even amidst an ongoing war. We suspect WASDE will be upping Ukrainian production in future reports.

Technically, the hard break to 645 may be complete and if the market wishes to peak at the lows it may come into next Tuesday’s cycle window timing. Otherwise, should the report show more corn acres with a slightly higher yield than 177 bpa, and an increase in June 1st stocks, prices could fall to retest the low and perhaps garner a look at the 624-635 area. For now, a rally into Tuesday should offer a pullback into the report but, we tend to look for the market to weaken Sunday night/Monday and set the stage for a short covering bounce.

Still, the most important time is ahead for this crop as we enter pollination. We can talk about heat and lack of rain, but what about the winds? There is a lot of summer left. A  major cycle window of July 28th is a key cycle for watching. A high?

For Sunday night and Monday, July corn has resistance at 763 and 776 with support at 736 and 722. For the week ahead, resistance is 774 and 794 with support at 731 and 708.

December corn resistance on Sunday night and Monday is 683 and 691 with support at 658 and 641. For the week ahead, resistance is 694 and 714 with support at 652 and 630.

 

SOYBEANS:     Weekly export sales showed U.S. exporters sold just 1 million bushels of soybeans in the week ending June 16th.  That compares to 12 million bushels sold the week prior for old crop but did sell 10 million bushels of new crop which now takes 2022/23 export commitments to 491 million bushels versus last year at 277 million bushels for mid-June.      

U.S. soy demand quieted this week but cumulative old crop soy export commitments indicate the USDA/WASDE may increase exports by 25 million bushels which would serve to tighten the old crop carryout and brought forward would tighten new crop 2022/23 ending stocks. However, acres and yield will be the deciding factor in next week’s reports as to how much the new crop carryout is reduced. The surprise would be in less 2022/23 acres which coupled with increased usage of old crop leans to a smaller carryout and tighter stocks to usage ratio. Perhaps, this would be the unexpected.

Rains in the forecast  for the weekend may slow planting progress of double-crop soybeans on winter wheat rotations. We note the harvest progress in winter wheat has been helped with drier weather in the Southern Plains so, harvest will probably be wrapped up in the next few weeks? However, rains in the heart of the Midwest may slow harvest progress and therefore, slow the planting of double crop soybeans. This may be especially so in SRW as well.

We note, September soyoil saw 11 days of decline or down the elevator shaft.  Malaysian palm oil has also descended sharply lower which is pulling support out beneath soyoil. This market appears to have peaked for 2022.

Bottom line, soybeans have cycle window timing on Tuesday and we look for a test of this week’s low and then a rally into the Final Plantings Report and Quarterly Stocks Report. Many anticipate an increase in soybean acres and the surprise would be if acres remained fairly unchanged or a shade lower. This market has a huge 10-year double top overhead and this is a large resistance so, no wonder futures fell. On an Elliot Wave count there remains a potential large Wave 5 overhead and corn has one as well on the December. The market doesn’t have to go there but the count potential does exist. We continue to recommend buying puts and flooring the new crop contracts. This leaves the topside open for now and if weather turns adversely in July and August, basis levels should be strong.

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1626 and 1641 with support at 1589 and 1567.  For the week ahead, resistance is 1681 and 1751 with support at 1562 and 1511.

November soybeans have resistance at 1439 and 1452 with support at 1405 and 1384. For the week ahead, resistance is 1469 and 1512 with support at 1390 and 1354.

 

WHEAT:     Thursday’s Drought Monitor reading showed 69.98% of the High Plains are in an abnormally dry to exceptional dry condition.   

Wheat is into harvest and harvest pressure has weighed on this market along with concerns that a shipping corridor may be agreed upon through the Black Sea. While we find it difficult to believe this will occur as Russia would just bomb the ports and is doing so on Odessa, we do feel this market has become pretty oversold and may see a short covering rally effort. Wheat has a cycle window due on Tuesday and this may help this market to strike a low and rally on short covering into the report.

This market does not have much news this evening.

For July Chicago wheat, resistance is 950 and 976 with support at 910 and 896. For the week ahead, resistance is 950 and 976 with support at 910 and 896.

KC July wheat resistance is 1014 and 1033 with support at 984 and 973. For the week ahead, resistance is 1072 and 1147 with support at 956 and 915.

 

LIVESTOCK:      The cow herd remains in liquidation with part of this coming from retiring ranchers and drier conditions in pastures. In July, we will get the cattle inventory report which should continue to show the cow herd remains in decline. Over the past three years, USDA has shown the cow herd declined by 4.9%  and is continuing to do so in 2022. Normally, liquidation of cows would mean weaker beef prices, especially hamburger, at the grocery store. This is not the case these days.

Cash is disappointing in the south with 75 loads delivered at Tulia and cash trading in the south at 137 with the north trading as high as 157.25 with much of the trade in the 145 to 149 range in the northern regions.

Bottom line, we are very friendly for December on out cattle and like the October 2023 as well. The December 2023 contracts come on next week and we are entertaining those as well. However, the market should still offer breaks in here to be able to price those in. We still have a lot of summer left so, patience is key here. Our thought for next year is for fats to reach upwards of 180 to 200.

The Cattle on Feed Report showed:

On Feed:  101.2  (guess of 101.4)  102 last month

Placements:   97.9  (guess of 99.6)  99.1 last month

Marketing:   102.4  (guess of 103)  97.8 last month     

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-24-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

A catch your breath day for corn and soybeans. Is there more to this break?


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This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-22-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 22, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

Note:     There will not be a morning audio on Thursday due to a meeting that I will have to leave for by 6:30 a.m. to arrive on time.  I will be out of the office for a portion of the day and will not have an evening commentary but we will resume audio and commentary on Friday. Thanks for understanding.

 

WEATHER:     Commodity Weather Group indicates July will be warm but not hot with temps limited to northern Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Texas. Below normal precipitation limited to northwestern Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, southern North Dakota. Still, we note, only 30% of the Midwest 5-day coverage followed by mostly dry conditions next week is pushing moisture deficit areas to a third of the Midwest. We share, Commodity Weather Group is pretty much alone in their forecast for average temps in July with most services talking the return of heat. Midwest rains are patchy next two weeks at best.

Our source from South America tilts hot and dry through July with the heat moving into the eastern Corn Belt in August. We think the key for July will be the lack of rainfall and the winds that have continued to plague the Midwest. You can catch rain but with the heat and winds (even if temps are not horrifically hot) will cause evaporation at a time when the corn plant so badly needs the moisture and its draw is greater.

The European model run has tended to be more accurate and the Canadian model run seems more closely aligned with the European model. Both are calling for a return of heat after a brief spell of relief from high temperatures. Heat builds across Canada with heat building into the south and southeast.

 

CORN:     Bull spreads gained today but new crop futures which includes the September contract this year, could not hold and were drawn lower on weakness of soybeans with the GFS model run showing more aggressive rains in the 8-15 day slot.

We continue to hear from various trusted sources that Ukrainian exports to any measure will not occur. Russia hit Viterra and Bungy terminals overnight and created heavy damage in the port of Mykolaiv. Indonesian president, who is the G20 chairman, will meet with Russian and Ukrainian officials by the end of June to discuss the crisis. Good luck.

With the June 30th Quarterly Stocks report due, we note the June 1st corn stocks have been above estimates in 7 of the last 11 years. We also note, corn acreage has also been above estimates in 7 of the past 11 years with 5 out of 7 years over 1 to 3 million acres.

Technically, the 682 comes out and this market should spill lower towards 662-666 objective and perhaps the 624 area. We suspect there will be stops beneath the market.

With crop condition ratings still higher than the 5-year average, the ratings seem to not be garnering attention when slipping but we note the next Monday’s number is expected to drop another 2%.

China’s National Crop Variety Registration Committee published “National Registration Standards for Genetically Engineered corn and soybean varieties for trial and effective immediately.  China is working hard to be less dependent when it comes to corn, soybean, and wheat imports. Really? Or, are they merely talking down the market and/or sentiment?

For tonight and tomorrow, July corn has resistance at 773 and 779 with support at 757 and 747. December corn has resistance at 702 and 711 with support at 687 and 681.

 

SOYBEANS:     While some want to blame the talk of recession for the drop in soybeans and crude oil, we tend to look to the weakness of Malaysian palm oil which has declined 29% since June 8th and was down hard overnight. That coupled with the drop in crude oil, a massive double top overhead, and seasonality all are contributing to the pressure on soybeans. We add, soyoil is catching heavy selling and soymeal is doing little to offer support for soybeans so, the track is south.

Crude oil futures fell hard but managed to climb back to near 300 points lower for the day. Talk of recession with Biden suggesting a pause in gasoline and diesel taxes until September implied increased concern over inflation and helped to trigger an increase in recessionary fears. Still, this would be viewed as a “temporary” fix. Crude oil inventories have tracked 10-15% below last year. We suspect after many globally and in the U.S. being stuck at home for a long period due to Covid, demand is pushing and as people get back to work, demand may push further. Then, when China gets fully back on track with factories humming, global demand may increase even farther.

We heard of fish hatcheries/processors closing due to inability to make money on the fish with costs soaring to run the hatcheries and plants let alone truck the supplies to restaurants and stores.

As for the June 30th reports, we note the June 1st quarterly stocks tend to be less than the trade guess in 7 of the last 11 years with soybean acres below the average guess in 9 out of the past 11 years. We note, 5 of the 9 years, the acres came in less than 200,000 acres.

Like corn, good to excellent ratings next Monday are anticipated to decline 1-2%.

The USDA is expected to forecast an increase of 36.4 MMT increase in South American production for soybeans in 2023.

New crop soybeans closed beneath the 100 day moving average today and the market could see further slippage. Options for the July contract expire on Friday and we had noted the growth in put options in the past three weeks or so. We had wondered if the puts would go worthless but now we have a pretty good clue “most likely not.”

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1677 and 1700 with support at 1639 and 1624.  November soybeans have resistance at 1506 and 1533 with support at 1461 and 1443.

Cycle window timing due on the 28th .  A  low?

 

WHEAT:     The Ukraine-Russian war entered its 119th day today and it appears the war will continue through summer. Wheat got some reprieve today on news of Russia potentially blocking Ukrainian grain via rail exports through Lithuania and reports of Kansas wheat yields disappointing.

Adding support beneath wheat futures today, Kazakhstan announced they are extending wheat and wheat flour export restrictions until September 30th.

Demand increased on Tuesday afternoon with Algeria buying 600 tmt of optional-origin milling wheat following another recent tender, Pakistan tendering for 500 tmt of wheat due by July 1st,  and Tunisia is said to have bought 100 tmt of soft wheat.

The Russian ruble reached new 7-year highs. This makes Russian wheat expensive compared to German or Baltic wheat. It may be that Europe becomes a benefactor of Russian wheat this year.

KC September wheat closed faintly lower today and the floater is 15% negative with the timer at 1% negative. The TRx via the daily chart remains negative but this market is overdone. The 200-day moving average is 928.5 and a 40-week moving average for the contract stands at 939.5. The low of the week of March 28th was 992.5. We share, the indicators that we tend to respect are not close to finding a low just yet. Furthermore, the trending averages have turned negative on the weekly chart and a rally to 1160 should find tough selling?

For tonight and tomorrow, July Chicago wheat has resistance at 1000 and 1027 with support at 953 and 933. July KC wheat has resistance at 1060 and 1083 with support at 1019 and 1001.

 

LIVESTOCK:      Cattle futures gave up ground today and moved to the defensive mode. We suspect the 25 cars of deliveries on Tuesday afternoon surprised the bulls and they turned sellers today in fear of more to come and a seasonal summer low still in the offing? All deliveries were made at Tulia, Texas where there is a large amount of cattle that continually bring less money than further north and beneath the futures market. That said, the trucking cost to send these cattle to the packers in Dumas and Amarillo are costly and the deliverer decided to let someone else enjoy the ride. (no pun intended) Texas continues to struggle with clean-up in non-corporate feedyards and this seems to have become the rule rather than the exception. For now, Tulia is the last place or one of, that one would take delivery of cattle. It is the south and its discount, that is weighing on the June cattle futures. The lack of processing capacity in Texas since the closing in 2013 of Plainview, Texas coupled with it having the largest concentration of corporate cattle on feed, this area has become a negative influence.

On Thursday, the weekly slaughter report with weight data along with beef cow slaughter totals will be released. The Cold Storage report will come out on Thursday afternoon and the Cattle-on-Feed report will be out on Friday afternoon.

The May placements are anticipated to show a slight reduction from the previous pace of April and March but marketing numbers is expected to outpace the placements.

Feedlots in the south hit the lower bids today and moved cattle at 138 to 137 which is $2-3 lower than last week’s trade. However, cash trade remains stronger in the north. The afternoon beef showed choice down $0.99 at $266.57 with select down $0.71 at $245.99. Movement was 129 boxes and 27 trim.

     

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-22-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans taking selling due to heavy selling in crude oil and soyoil. 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-21-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 21, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

 WEATHER:     The midday GFS model run turned wetter for southern Minnesota and northern Iowa for next Tuesday but we note, World Weather, Inc. feels this forecast change may be overdone. Likewise, the GFS model also turned wetter in the southwestern Plains for Sunday into Tuesday but again, World Weather, Inc. believes this increase in moisture may be overdone.

The midday model run did reduce rain from central and west-central to northwestern Minnesota Thursday into Sunday. The reduction in rain for the forecast is thought to be needed.

The GFS model run also reduced rain from northern Plains to the northern Midwest June 29th through July 1st and that reduction was needed.  However, rain was increased from Missouri to Ohio July 1-3 and that latest run appears to be overdone.

The GFS model run reduced rain for the central and northern Plains for July 1-5 and also reduced rain in the Midwest July 3-5 with much less rain advertised from most of the eastern Dakotas to southern Minnesota while the previous run had advertised mostly light rain elsewhere. Again, that reduction in rain was likely to be expected.

Bottom line, while some heat is coming out of the forecast into early July, there’s no major moisture events in the forecast either.   

 

CORN:     With the forecasts at midday, one would expect crop ratings to slip in the next few weeks. Not surprising, corn good to excellent slipped 2% to 70% but is 5% better than this week last year. Iowa is 83% good to excellent, Indiana is 70% good to excellent, Illinois is 71%, Nebraska is 68% and Minnesota is 65% good to excellent.  North Dakota is 69% as is South Dakota.

Corn emergence is on par with the 5-year average of 95%.

China imported 2.1 MMT of corn during May which is close to the 2.2 MMT imported during April but, imports are running behind that of last year at 14.8 MMT versus 16.4 MMT. For May, of the total 2.1 MMT, only 127 tmt came from Ukraine compared to 695 tmt in April and 1.3 MMT last year for the same month. Imports from the U.S. of 1.9 MMT are up 500 tmt from April’s 1.4 MMT and was unchanged with last year.

Corn harvest is underway and well ahead of last year with 9% of Brazilian safrinha corn harvested. Largest producing state of Mato Grosso is 14% complete compared to 9% on average. Goias is 12% harvested compared to normal of 3%. Mato Grosso do Sul is 6% harvested compared to normally 4%.

Seasonally, corn and soybeans tend to break from the 24th week of the year and this year seems on par with history. The fact that corn rallied to new highs for the month and now has failed through last week’s low is concerning. Furthermore, the floater confirmed a negative turn today and implies more weakness to come. These are weather markets now and futures can be volatile but we honestly do not expect a sharp reversal from today’s pattern. On Monday evening’s opening call of nicely higher only to open that much lower showed bearish attitudes and aggressive selling even if the market had opened higher. This is negative. Taking out the last low of 682 moves this market back to the outlook of 666-662. We note, the daily trending averages are about to turn negative and doing so could add a bit more technical pressure. That trending indicator went long on December 29th, 2021 and did not turn negative until April29th-May 1st. It has been choppy since but turning negative could offer a decent slip?

For tonight and tomorrow, July corn has resistance at 775 and 789 with support at 749 and 737. December corn has resistance at 722 and 741 with support at 686 and 669.

 

SOYBEANS:     Weather may be playing a hand in today’s break but we also note the negative or defensive talk about stagflation, wealth destruction, and the inability for crude oil to surge to fresh new highs. As for crude oil, we suspect demand is still very strong and while there was some rhetoric or noise about the Biden Administration stopping exports of crude, we want to see proof.

Perhaps, more important to soybean strength is the weakness in soyoil with supply expectations for Indonesian palm oil improving.  With soyoil prices weakening, they could become a pressure on crushing margins.    

94% of the nation’s soybean crop is planted which is ahead of average by 1%. Emergence is 83% and just 1% behind that of normal. For the state of North Dakota, emergence is 58% versus average of 86%. Minnesota is catching up to the average pace of emergence at 83% versus average of 94%.

Soybean good to excellent condition rating slipped 2% from that of last week. Hot and windy weather took a toll on both corn and soybeans this past week.

Technically, the soybean market has been in a range bound sideways affair since February 24th’s high and remains in the range but for how much longer? Thus far, from the low of the move over time to the current rally effort high is 228.5% which comes in near the lowest since 1970. This is interesting as fundamentals are much greater than at any time since then. Traders and analysts want to talk about wealth destruction and recession or stagflation, and think this may stall the markets. Call us optimists, but in our view, food is king and money can leave the stockmarket to move into commodities. We go back to one of our key thought processes that the world needs food, is short bought or hand-to-mouth, and does not have reserves on hand which should lead to buying no matter the price (for now) to have supplies on hand for their people as the “world” is in the same boat everywhere.

God forbid if we have a hot and dry summer with continual winds as we experienced this past week as U.S. supplies will become “extremely” tight and how high will high be when other countries grasp the concern that the world’s largest or one of exporting nations now has a problem as well? Too dramatic? Perhaps, but we think it is also realistic. Just think of the soybean carryout at 280 million bushels in the face of nicely higher acres than a year ago but the carryout still declined. Rationing has not taken place in corn, wheat, nor soybeans.

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1698 and 1713 with support at 1672 and 1661. November soybeans have resistance at 1526 and 1540 with support at 1502 and 1492.

 

WHEAT:     After a good weekend of harvest weather, futures fell hard to start the new week. September wheat had a chart gap near 1005 which was filled in this break.

Ukraine will find it tougher as time moves on, to export grain this summer and into the fall. If so, this should offer some support beneath the market on this seasonal break.   

Yield reports from northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas indicate yields 18 to 40 bpa. With a good harvest weekend, yield data reports continue to be disappointing but futures paid little attention.

Winter wheat is 91% headed compared to average pace for this past week of 95%.  Harvest is 25% complete which is 3% better than the 5-year average. We note, corn and soybeans weren’t alone in slipping in conditions. Winter wheat conditions in good to excellent slipped 1%.

Spring wheat planting is 98% complete which is 2% behind the average. Emergence is 89% compared to average of 97%. Spring wheat good to excellent conditions are rated at 59% which is up from last week by 4%.

Bulgaria sees this year’s wheat crop near last year’s record of 6.5 to 6.7 MMT versus last year’s 7.1 MMT. While exports of last year were 5.1 MMT, exports this year are forecast at 4 MMT.

Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat and has added Portugal as a wheat import source as they continue to diversify import options due to the ongoing Russian – Ukrainian war.

Hungary has offered Ukraine the ability to rail ship grains through the country seeking other ocean routes that may not be available currently. A Ukrainian ag official said grain exports for June are expected to reach 2 MMT, the maximum deemed possible via land routes given the infrastructure constraints. This compares to 1.7 MMT estimated exported during May.

Sovecon increased their estimate of this year’s Russian wheat crop to 89.2 MMT from 88.6 MMT previously. This compares to the USDA currently at 81 MMT and last year’s production of 75.2 MMT, citing good crop conditions this spring. We note, should this come to fruition, the crop production could make a new record in exceeding 2020/21’s 85.4 MMT.

Bottom line, September KC wheat fell through the trendline of 1078.25 shown in last Friday’s commentary and breached the Wave 3 count. A small gap of 1043.75 to 1045 may be where this market is headed to this evening.

Last year’s harvest low came on July 7th. The weather wasn’t nearly as adverse as this year and there was no Russian-Ukrainian war. Our next cycle window of time is June 28th which is not a major one but is one that we still pay attention to. The next major cycle window of time is July 28th.

For tonight and tomorrow, July Chicago wheat has resistance at 1016 and 1054 with support at 956 and 934. KC July wheat has resistance at 1087 and 1133 with support at 1016 and 991.

 

LIVESTOCK:     With corn futures under pressure and having struck a new weekly low,  feeder cattle caught buying and the June 1st low is of key importance. The thought that corn has struck the high for June aided feeder cattle to rally nearly 300 points today. However, fats closed a touch lower. Technically, August feeder cattle appear to be or have formed a head and shoulders bottom formation on the daily chart.

Show lists this week are up nicely as feedlots are seeing cattle in numbers ready for market. That said, the front-end supply should be current albeit we hear talk that with the heat, cattle were not gaining weight and could delay marketing by 30 days.

Pasture and range conditions remained unchanged from last week at 31% good to excellent.

Boxed beef sold for export last week slipped 32% from the previous week and 6% from the same week last year. At 751 loads, boxes were 11% of last week’s total sales. However, from last year, boxed beef sales for exports are down 4%.

This week’s cutout is anticipated to continue to drop and with heat coming back, we suspect the cutout remains soft in July. The late cutout showed choice up $1.06 at $267.56 and select up $0.31 at $246.70. Boxed beef volume was 122 loads.

The FCE auction today sold a pen for $138.50 located in northern Texas Panhandle. There was another 500 head bought in the southern Texas Panhandle for $138 with extra time. Per the USDA afternoon report there was no trade in Kansas or Nebraska and Iowa today. There was a rumor of cattle trading a small number at 138 in Kansas late this afternoon. If so, that would imply cattle trading down $1.50 from that of last week in Kansas.

Lastly, we heard rumor today that there may be deliveries made this evening or late afternoon on the June contract.  This afternoon, 25 loads were tendered for delivery at Tulia. These are the first deliveries this month with blackout dates, it appears the delivery will be July 1st. The oldest date is now February 16th, 2022.  This should weigh on the June futures on Wednesday.

 

 

 

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Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-21-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Another start to the week in red. Weather ideal for small crops that are growing quickly but, if this weather persists, crops may not turn out with optimum yields. Traders are of the mindset…”prove it to me.”


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-21-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Another start to the week in red. Weather ideal for small crops that are growing quickly but, if this weather persists, crops may not turn out with optimum yields. Traders are of the mindset…”prove it to me.”


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Sunday Evening Audio for 6-20-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

A hot weekend may see slight relief as we head into the weekend ahead but heat and below normal rainfall stays with much of the Midwest and especially the western 
Corn Belt. A higher opening is called for soybeans and corn but wheat should open higher and trade mixed but we suspect wheat will sponsor a low in here.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-17-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 17, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

NOTE:    Due to the long holiday weekend for Juneteenth, there will not be a written commentary until Tuesday evening. There will be an audio update given on Monday afternoon for the preopen in Monday evening and another audio for Tuesday morning.  This morning’s commentary was in written format due to having issues with my audio recording software    at our office. Monday afternoon’s commentary will be via audio from home. That should not have the same issues experienced today at the office.

 

WEATHER:     The weather forecast remains hot and dry as we move into the weekend but is forecast for more of the same into the end of June. Traders will be watching the forecasts over the weekend  into Monday’s trade. There are no markets for agriculture during the day of Monday but crude oil and metals will trade to 1:30 p.m.

 

CORN:     Corn futures pushed higher for the week and it appears a higher weekly close was in store. Why not?! End users are nervous over the coming and current forecasts with temps of 100 degrees Fahrenheit plus in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas just as corn is moving into pollination. A lot of corn in Kansas is not irrigated. This corn in all three states goes into feed usage. We suggest subscribers that feed livestock look to cover needs in the September contract with commercials having switched bids based off of the contract and with delayed spring planting, the September corn should respond to old crop demand this year. Basis in the September could become quite strong and may surprise.

Argentine corn harvest is right in line with last year’s pace but behind the 5-year average at 60% complete.

Much of France will experience unprecedented heat this week ahead with temperatures reaching 104 degrees in the southwestern portion of the country starting on Saturday per data from Meteo France, the state meteorological service. The national heat index will exceed 82 degrees Fahrenheit during the week ahead and will mark the highest temperatures at the start of the season as well as for the month of June.  Scorching heat will start on Saturday and may often exceed the intensity of 2019, with unprecedented temperatures during the month of June. Records may even be broken.

The heat wave poses the biggest threat in central France, where crops are in their final grain-filling stage. Recent storms did more harm than good with destroying heads of wheat and flattening corn stalks.

Today’s markets fought hard to hold higher for the session but sharp selling in wheat and weakness in soybeans finally pushed corn lower on the day regardless of the forecast ahead closing down on average 4 cents.  Come Monday evening, traders will focus on the weather forecast and should the hot hot forecast prevail through month end, traders should turn buyers to start the session.

Corn futures on the Dalian Exchange in China closed the week higher. Indian and Pakistan corn remains the cheapest into Asian destinations, with the competition slowing buyers’ appetites as they wait for better price signals. Good luck.  Furthermore, trade sources are concerned of quality issues and the lingering possibility that some export restrictions can still come to some exporters which has already happened with Indian wheat supplies. We would not be surprised if India takes efforts to protect their supplies of corn.

Russia increased its export tax for corn by $2.50 per metric ton.

In Argentina, the Up River corn market, offers for July were heard at a 12-cent discount to August, down 2 cents from Thursday, while July bids firmed up to an 8-cent discount to August. Argentine yields are averaging just under 7 mt/hectare, with the exchange keeping the forecast unchanged at 49 MMT for final production. If realized, that would be a decline of 3.5 MMT below the last marketing year. Note, in the WASDE report on June 10th, the USDA left Argentine corn unchanged as they did on Brazilian corn production.

Both Argentina and the U.S. will be absent from the market on Monday due to observance of federal holidays in each country.

For Monday night and Tuesday, July corn has resistance at 796 and 807 with support at 778 and 771. For the week ahead resistance is 804 and 823 with support at 762 and 739.

December corn has resistance at 745 and 757 with support at 724 and 715. For the week ahead, resistance is 752 and 770 with support at 711 and 688.

 

SOYBEANS:     Soymeal helped soybeans push overnight but this market is still in the following stage. It may take into next week’s trade to see better performance. July soy and grain options expire on the 24th.  Still, soymeal found resistance against the 100-day moving average and closed near the high of the week and note, the July contract struck new monthly highs! The daily floater basis the July soymeal (September is not much different) is 46% positive, the timer is 30% positive, and the TRx is positive as is the stochastic.

Ukrainian sunoil processing plants are on the verge of shutting down due to burgeoning oversupply of sunflower meals that has choked storage capacity, while low demand from buyers and few export options lead to build up in supply and a collapse in prices.

Since the invasion by the Russian military, the blockade of Ukrainian ports has allowed average monthly pace of sunflower meal exports to decrease by more than four and a half times and does not exceed 96 tmt to 100 tmt per month. The main buyers of meal in May and June of last year were Poland and Turkey. Polish buyers’ prices for Ukrainian sunflower meal fell by an average of 43% since March and has reached their lowest level since the beginning of the 20212/22 season at $200/mt. With seaborne freight options severely limited, exporters of any Ukrainian produce have had to turn to road or rail to guarantee moving volumes to the borders. That has hit logistics costs, as more demand for trucks pushes the values higher.  The cost of road based logistics costs are nearly 3 times higher than pre-war price levels. Traders are reporting no demand for Ukrainian sunflower meal for July through August due to the negative dollar impact as buyers lose when converting local currency into US dollars. According to APK-Inform, more than 70% of sunflower meal in Ukraine is normally exported, while domestic feed consumption does not exceed 20%.

China sold 91,200 mt of imported soybeans from central reserves at the 13th auction held by the National Grain Trade Center this year. This amount sold was only 18% of the 500 tmt offered but, did manage to be 8% better than the last auction that was also for 500 tmt. Thus far, China has auctioned off 2.4 MMT of soybeans out of 6.3 MMT offered this year. Chinese crushing margins continue to be weak and for three weeks consecutively, crushing volumes fell. Crushing volumes for the past week were 70 tmt less than the same period last year. We do share, with lockdowns, one wonders how crushers have been able to operate decently with concerns over labor, etc?

Chinese soymeal stocks fell for the first time in 8 weeks by 20 tmt to 900 tmt as lower crushing led to reduced output of meal amid relatively steadier procurement from downstream consumers.

Conversely, Chinese crusher soyoil output last week was reduced marginally with lower crushing volumes, resulting in lower soyoil stocks of 920 tmt or 10,000 mt less than the previous week but 130 tmt higher than compared to the same period a year ago.

Soybeans are dragging their way higher due to the view that weather has more emphasis on corn at this time and markets tend to peak around the July 4th holiday. We suspect this year is going to be different and drag as much as the market may, we think soybeans are just bidding time. New crop November remains quite strong and we note, the all-time high for a November contract is 1789 which occurred in the week of September 4th, 2012. Get past the 4th of July and have heat running high without humidity and this should be a horse of a different color. Soybeans may also be dragging their feet from pushing higher due to anticipation that acres in the Final Planting Report may show a sharp increase? With the ending supply down 30 million bushels in the S&D report, we think the quarterly stocks should slip with a good crush and exports holding together.

The next cycle window is June 28th. For Monday night and Tuesday, July soybeans have resistance at 1718 and 1732 with support at 1694 and 1684.  For the week ahead, resistance is 1746 and 1789 with support at 1670 and 1637.

November soybean resistance is 1550 and 1564 with support at 1529 and 1522. For the week ahead, resistance is 1568 and 1600 with support at 1510 and 1484.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures were lower overnight and could not hold rallies which gave way to a sharply lower day and lower weekly close. Harvest pressure is causing some of the weakness but heat is also causing concern for wheat coming home.  Furthermore, heat in Germany and France is becoming concerning for winter wheat and barley. The world does not need Mother Nature continuing to pick away on global supplies.

Early on, there were some positive expectations that Argentina would capitalize on the Black Sea debacle and help supply the world with wheat. That same idea was posited about India and look how that has ended up. Ideas of Argentine farmers as a beacon of hope for the rest of the wheat-consuming world, are losing steam. There have been early-season frosts and freezes, spiraling inflation, and political uncertainty. These have combined to thwart the country’s ag sector. The 2022/23 winter wheat crop, which is being planted now, is the subject of myriad issues being reported. South American farmers are, for instance, planting under the lingering effects of a second, consecutive La Nina, amid fears of an extremely rare third, consecutive La Nina in the months ahead.  Dry conditions and intense freezes have slowed farmers’ planting progress. A total of just 30% of intended area has been sown to wheat as of the 8th, down 6.2% from the past year planting pace. In addition, record-high prices for and shortages of key inputs are making farmers more reliant than ever on the elements being favorable.

Argentine exports are surging this year, with about 90% of the export quota already filled. At the same time, only 30% of the crop is planted? So, there’s probably a problem in the making. There’s a good likelihood Argentina won’t be able to meet its export quota this year. And that would have a catastrophic knock-on effect for importers. Domestic supply is likely to suffer too.

The Argentine government has imposed a series of protective measures to address ever rising inflation. It warns of increased export taxes and potential additional measures to protect the domestic market. This has, naturally, led to still more uncertainty for the farming sector. The grain trade will be most impacted by the “equilibrium volumes” imposed for the first time ever in December 2021. An automatic ban on exports and other restrictions are triggered when a threshold volume, determined by the government, is reached. For wheat, the export quota has been set at 10.0 MMT for 2022/23. This is 4.5 MMT lower than 2021/22 exports. Asian flour millers are expected to increase wheat imports from France and Romania in the new crop year as supplies from Ukraine remain cut off from markets.  Both French and Romanian wheat are on offer in the Asian market. Buyers have no alternative but to look for supplies beyond Ukraine and that may remain the case for another two or three years.

After several tough weather stricken years, Australia has emerged as the world’s second-largest wheat exporter this year. It has been able to increase sales to meet the global shortage since the beginning of the year. Australia is expected to continue shipping large volumes of wheat – even after July, which isn’t peak season there. Shipping slots out of Australia are reportedly fully booked right up to September. That may indicate there are limits to what the Australians can supply.

Asian importers are hand-to-mouth, booking cargoes just one or two months in advance. Their hope is that Black Sea supplies will return to the market. A senior government official said Monday, Ukraine’s grain harvest is likely to drop to around 48.5 MMT this year from 86 MMT last season. That’s a 44% drop in volume that it’s looking increasingly difficult to get made up through other global producers. Just consider the U.S.

The U.S. government has been calling on American farmers to plant more winter wheat this autumn. The government said it will also permit planting on some environmentally sensitive land beginning this fall. But drought and costly farm materials could limit productivity gains. Both of the U.S. wheat crops are currently in trouble.

In the Southern Plains, winter wheat farmers have had very little rain and are concerned about the size of their harvests. Drought damage could prevent the harvest of thousands of acres of winter wheat acreage due to drought damage. A private group on a crop tour of Kansas wheat in mid-May said more fields than normal might go unharvested this season due to drought damage. About 6% of the state’s acreage would be abandoned, according to the latest USDA guess. In neighboring Colorado, abandonment could be up 30%.

Then, the extremely wet weather in the Northern Plains will also likely reduce production this year. In North Dakota, a big April storm left the state’s largest fields under more than 2 feet of snow, resulting in floods as the snow melted. North Dakota produces about half the nation’s spring wheat crop. Growers there have only planted about 27% of their crop, the second-lowest in about 40 years.

Sorry to have written a book here but, wheat is into harvest pressure and traders are willing to sell on a seasonal thought. However, this break may be opening the door for opportunity central. If, you didn’t catch the drift here, I am becoming quite excited about the current break in wheat. I don’t mean run and blindly buy but, this market is building some very bullish fundamentals. So, we watch the technical side to find places for ownership.  We have to add another comment. Poland’s ag minister responded to Biden’s (?) thought process or plans to build grain silos at the Poland-Ukraine border. The ag minister said it would take 3-4 months to finalize the investment in the silos. That’s just the investment portion. Then the issues of who owns what would also have to be sorted. Since Russia attacked Ukraine, grain shipments of more than 20 MMT are stuck in port silos around the Black Sea. Ukraine said it faces a shortage of silos for new-crop grain. That is rather hard to believe, against projections for anywhere from a 30% to 44% reduction in new-crop grain output. Despite all the European Union-U.S. assistance, Ukraine exports are set to remain slow unless terminals are unblocked. The Kremlin is tying this to the lifting of some sanctions, the ball is in the West’s court.

We share the simple bar chart below with a smaller wave count:

For Monday night and Tuesday, July Chicago wheat has resistance at 1068 and 1103 with support at 1014 and 995. For the week ahead, resistance is 1073 and 1116 with support at 1010 and 990.

KC July wheat has resistance at 1138 and 1170 with support at 1087 and 1068. For the week ahead, resistance is 1158 and 1210 with support at 1077 and 1048.

Next cycle window timing is due June 28th.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle opened stronger this morning due to the continued heat in the forecast for the Southern Plains and the death loss of cattle in Kansas. Some believe the loss is due to a feed additive but heat in the western half of the state is oppressive and it just may be that cattle losses are due to only that. However, we do note the occurrence of fires at various packing plants and poultry facilities in the past year. That said, we share, Mother Nature provided a perfect storm (no pun intended) with a heavy rain the night before and then hot temperatures with high humidity causing the heavier weight cattle in the feedlots to die. Cactus Feeders were hit quite hard and talking 10,000 head amongst various feedlots adds up to a large amount of tonnage lost. Speaking of tonnage, cattle in the feedlots be it in Kansas, Oklahoma, or Texas are said to be losing weight due to the high heat. This portends cattle numbers are being spread out to backing up 30 to 60 days?

The ongoing concern may be if the weather sticks with heat but what about humidity? If the humidity goes out that may help abate the losses of cattle for now if due to heat. Heat and humidity is deadly for cattle at heavier weights. Thus far, the losses are about a day and half kill so, should not affect feed usage that much.

We note, the daily August live cattle floater is 89% negative, the timer is 98% positive, and the TRx is neutral.  Note, there is a gap on the daily chart overhead at 138.75 to 140.27. Can the market make it up to fill this gap? After making a lower weekly low and then closing higher, this should portend a stronger potential for August cattle next week. We note, weights are dropping and normally would start to increase. The July forecast is concerning as it causes cattle to lose weight and perhaps back up numbers, increase feed costs, but also the heat is tough on consumer demand. The product should continue to lose value.

Technically, we share the weekly August live cattle has our attention as the floater is 13% positive, the timer is 1% negative and the TRx is positive which indicates this market may push higher instead of breaking to the upper 128 area into August. We are standing aside in the selling mode but would entertain buying if the market pulls back on Tuesday for a trading affair.

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Morning Update for 6-17-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 17, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

NOTE:    Due to the long holiday weekend for Juneteenth, there will not be a written commentary until Tuesday evening. There will be an audio update given on Monday afternoon for the pre-open in Monday evening and another audio for Tuesday morning.

 

 This morning’s commentary is in written format due to having issues with my audio recording software this morning at our office. Monday’s will be from my home office.

 

The weather forecast remains hot and dry as we move into the weekend but is forecast for more of the same into the end of June. Traders will be watching the forecasts over the weekend  into Monday’s trade. There are no markets for agriculture during the day of Monday but crude oil and metals will trade to 1:30 p.m.

The U.S. Dollar is adding back over half of what was lost on Thursday when the Swiss bank raised interest rates by 0.50%.

CORN:     Corn futures pushed higher for the week and it appears a higher weekly close is in store. Why not?! End users are nervous over the coming and current forecasts with temps of 100 degrees Fahrenheit plus in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas just as corn is moving into pollination. A lot of corn in Kansas is not irrigated. This corn in all three states goes into feed usage. We suggest subscribers that feed livestock look to cover needs in the September contract with commercials having switched bids based off of the contract and with delayed spring planting, the September corn should respond to old crop demand this year. Basis in the September could become quite strong.

 

SOYBEANS:     Soymeal helped soybeans push overnight but this market is still in the following stage. It may take into next week’s trade to see better performance. July soy and grain options expire on the 24th.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures are lower overnight and is expected to trade both sides today. Harvest pressure is causing some of the weakness but heat is also causing concern for wheat coming home.  Furthermore, heat in Germany and France is becoming concerning for winter wheat and barley. The world does not need Mother Nature continuing to pick away on global supplies.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle opened stronger this morning due to the continued heat in the forecast for the Southern Plains and the death loss of cattle in Kansas. Some believe the loss is due to a feed additive but heat in the western half of the state is oppressive and it just may be that cattle losses are due to only that. However, we do note the occurrence of fires at various packing plants and poultry facilities in the past year.

The ongoing concern may be if the weather sticks with heat but what about humidity? If the humidity goes out that may help abate the losses of cattle for now if due to heat. Heat and humidity is deadly for cattle at heavier weights. Thus far, the losses are about a day and half kill so, should not affect feed usage that much.

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-16-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 16, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

WEATHER:

 

CORN:     There haven’t been many days when the Dow breaks that the commodities ignore but that occurred today. Weather forecasts for heat the next two weeks helped to see the futures add weather premium back in.  Still, we are entering a 3-day weekend and some liquidation may be seen on Friday.  Funds by midday, were buyers of 6,500 contracts of corn.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast the coming 90 days will be warm to hot across the entire US and dry for the Plains as well as, much of the Western Midwest. A prevailing Central US high pressure Ridge along with a slowing Jet Stream, the outlook for July is hotter and drier. This agrees with the weather outlook that we have been sharing from our source in South America. We add, the European weather model is very much in agreement. Note, the NOAA has been migrating its computer system from IBM to Cray which should make its forecast more reliable on the Cray. We share NOAA updates as of today:

 

 

 

We share the US Seasonal Drought Monitor Outlook:

 

We note the differences of the start to this year’s growing season compared to last year. 2021 growing season saw little ponding if any at all and night time temps of 70 degrees or less which allowed the corn to transfer sugar to starch but mornings were dewy.  How much better could it have been? This year, the condition ratings started out strong but declined 1% last Monday for the past week and we suspect each week will see further declines in the good to excellent ratings.

Storms have already created ponding across Iowa and hail and flat-lined winds have taken a toll on Nebraska crops. Minnesota and North Dakota need to see some drying. So, we need to keep an eye on night time temps as we move further into summer.

We find it interesting that the US has not had a new petroleum refinery build in 50 years. But over that 50 years, the population has grown 120%. Cost is one factor in the reticence to establish new energy footprints, but regulatory strangulation is the other. So, the point is that building crude oil stocks will be “burned through” quickly enough on any sort of break in pump prices, if that is even necessary. This break is, nothing more than an excuse to cause the market to level out for a little bit. For the time being, there’s really nothing to disrupt the long-term view that crude oil supplies will grow dearer on green policies and geopolitical tensions thereby pushing prices to freshly inflated highs. The EIA pegged last week’s US gasoline demand at 9.09 mbpd; the lowest for that particular week since 2013, hence the growth in crude stocks.

Demand for corn for ethanol plants remains very strong in the Western Corn Belt allowing basis to remain firm. A US biofuel group (RFA) is welcoming the passage by the House of Representatives of a bill that will allow E15 gasoline to be sold all year around in a move to permanently end attempts of re-imposing a seasonal summer break on the sale of the grade. The bill will also fund additional infrastructure to support the sale of higher blend biofuels. The extending of the Reid Vapor Pressure or RVP waiver that currently applies to E10 during the summer months to E15 gasoline during the summer driving season this year.  The use of E15 is approved for the use in more than 97% of cars and trucks on the road.  Furthermore, updating dispensers, tanks, pumps, and components that carry E15 and higher blends, will serve to benefit more consumers.

Bottom line, we anticipated December corn would try to push back up to 740-745. Today, the contract struck 740.  The heat in the forecast and dryness in July should help to add weather premium back into this market. The all-time high for December contracts is 849 which was made on August 10th, 2012.  The all-time high for any lead contract, is 843.5 and thus far, May 2022 contract has pushed the high for the year thus far at 827. Last year, the May contract struck the yearly high. What are the odds of this occurring two consecutive years? We look for July corn to take that title away and our anticipation of a move to $8-810 is not far away. The market may find resistance there for a bit. The question is “will it be in June or in July?” We look for higher highs in July but we note, the USDA reports at the end of June is on the last trading day for the month but also first notice day for the July contract and this means most traders will have moved forward to September.

For tonight and tomorrow, July corn has resistance at 796 and 803 with support at 777 and 765. The December corn has resistance at 744 and 753 with support at 723 and 711.

Cycle window timing due on June 28th.

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans rallied over 20 cents higher but settled back into the close to finish up 15.75 at 1709.5.  Soymeal carried soybeans today as export sales met market expectations at 256,300 mt. Crude oil was stronger today and this added support beneath soybeans but soyoil slipped hard and ended the day sharply lower.

Hot and drier forecasts also added weather premium but we suspect traders remain cautious fearing this market could still slip further. We remain positively inclined and wonder if this market is preparing to take the put premium out of the market by the close of the 24th basis July.

Chinese crushers remain in the red but it is thought this will change fairly soon and demand will improve. Unfavorable margins continued to weigh on production per data from the NGOIC.

In cash markets, Brazil was quiet due to a national holiday, but several deals were said to have been worked in the Paranagua paper market late Wednesday which indicates higher values for the July timeframe. Brazil exported 3.1 MMT of soybeans in the first two weeks of June, which is 72% less than this time last year. The figure equates to a shipping average rate of 383,092 mt of soybeans per working day in June, which is 27% lower than last year.

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1721 and 1730 with support at 1696 and 1680. November soybeans have resistance at 1556 and 1567 with support at 1527 and 1509. The next cycle window of timing is due June 28th.

 

WHEAT:     Heat continues to stress winter wheat crops and barley in France, Germany, and Italy. The forecast is calling for temperatures to push well over 100 degrees Fahrenheit to a high of 108 over the weekend. Global wheat production appears to be taking a step backwards which is not what the world needs now when worrying about food supplies and knowing countries are in a “hand-to-mouth” situation.

Ukrainian corn exports reached 585 tmt in the first half of June. About another 40% is heading towards destinations in Romania according to customs data today. Nearly 18% of all corn moved through the period was delivered by truck and truck-based wheat exports were 6% of the total volume with no barley being transported.

The situation in Ukraine’s shallow water ports also remains difficult as the queue at the entrance of the Sulina Canal has not decreased, and freight prices for grain cargoes delivered from the Ukrainian ports of Reni, Izmail, and Kilia continues to increase.

More wheat yields in HRW is coming in as the harvest moves into Kansas. We have heard some good yields in Oklahoma at 40-60 bpa but these are not common. More reports of 18 to 25 bpa today and we note, 45% of winter wheat production areas are in an area experiencing drought followed by 44% of durum wheat, and 22% spring wheat per the USDA drought monitor.

Temperatures in Europe are forecast to remain high through the region with France remaining the one of the most drought-affected countries in Northwestern Europe.

We draw attention to the US dollar today fell hard and perhaps one of the biggest down days. Will the break push further? A lower dollar had to help grains and attract buyers’ attention? Talk is that Asian buyers will soon turn to European origins with India out of the market.

For tonight and tomorrow, July Chicago wheat has resistance at 1095 and 1108 with support at 1057 and 1032.  KC July wheat has resistance at 1165 and 1177 with support at 1133 and 1113.

 

LIVESTOCK:     The late beef wire showed choice down $1.06 at $267.16 and select down $0.30 at $245.38 on 128 loads.

Weekly export sales for beef were down 12% from the 4-week average but shipments were up 7%.  China was involved in both sales and shipments which was good news considering they are still dealing with some lockdowns.

The cattle futures have been volatile this week with Monday taking out the previous week’s low only to rally back sharply on Tuesday and higher again on Wednesday. Today, August futures fell $1.00 but lifted back. Heat is going to encompass much of the US and this may cause beef demand to slow.

Speaking of heat, we seen videos today of cattle losses in Kansas and it was huge. We hear one feedlot lost 3,000 head and losses are said to be worse in the western side of the state. Tragic.

Good news, cash sales at the auction barns for feeders have been good. More good news was that cattle futures as well as, grains did not flinch on the selling pressure in the Dow. We wonder if money is shifting away from stocks to commodities?

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-16-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Beautiful summer morning and grains are in green with corn leading on the forecast of heat to continue.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-15-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 15, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

WEATHER:     At midday, the GFS model wet a bit wetter for both the 6 to 10 day and the 11 to 15 day forecasts. However, the European model is staying steadfastly dry.

 

CORN:     June is at the halfway mark and typically, the last half of June is a period of accelerating vegetative growth that is accompanied with stable crop condition ratings (72% good to excellent, down 1% last week), and futures peaking in late June or early July. That said, will this year be different? Currently, hot temperatures accompanied with winds tests the corn plant but then rains fed by tropical moisture moving up from the Gulf is falling nearly every morning or night in the central part of the Midwest. This morning, we received an inch of rain following light showers every morning. Thunderstorms moved through overnight and much of Iowa caught some rain. For now, corn is struggling on potential of weather forecasts calling for more hot and dry weather as we move through June into most of July but, concerning macro-economics, wealth destruction, and forced slow-down in global grain/oilseed demand growth(?) seems to be holding the market back from escalating higher. At this time a year ago, corn has seen its high for the year and was trading in a pin-net formation to ultimately slip lower before renewing another leg higher. Is the market doing this again? The unknown is just how many prevent plant acres are seen for corn.

July futures tested the 50-day and 40-day moving averages along with a trend line from the high of April 29th which has stalled this contract for the past 5 trading sessions. Breaching this trend line and averages would allow for July corn futures to test the 798 area or the upper Bollinger  Band. Holding here with support at the 20-day moving average just below today’s low almost gives an appearance that we could be forming a bull flag. The trending average is trying to turn higher and if this is a bull flag, it would project to pushing the top of April 29th and perhaps to 841.  So, this market is on the fence today.

The daily floater is pushing 82% positive, the timer is 66% positive, the TRx is positive and the stochastic appears to have more work to do on the upside as the K and D are spread apart. This should portend ultimately a push higher?

On Monday, a cargo of 18 tmt of Ukrainian corn was shipped through the Baltic Sea to northwestern Spain. The news of this shipment offered the July futures to catch its breath for a moment.

IHS Markit came out today (Informa) projecting a higher corn yield to 179 bpa and 91 million acres, up 460,000 acres from their May estimate and compares to March intentions of 89.5 million acres. This caused corn contracts to slip into the red for the session. We note, IHS Markit has not been that close on their estimates of late.

 The crop is loving the heat and rains but for now the crop doesn’t use much water so heat is wonderful. We think the GFS will end up being wrong as to wetter weather and less heat in the coming two weeks. At change back should not surprise and the European model is sticking steadfast to hot and dry.

EU corn imports for their season to date are 15.6 MMT compared to 14.5 MMT this time last year.

EIA weekly ethanol production rate came in at 1.06 million barrels per day, up 21,000 from last week, leaving stocks at 23.2 million barrel, down 400,000 from the last report. Basis in the western Corn Belt is strong, partly off of the big ethanol grind, and talk that trains were sold out of the west into the Canadian feedlots. The Gulf basis was firm today.

Bull spreads gained nicely today due to the news of corn in the WCB moving into Canadian feedlots and a strong ethanol grind. Regardless, commercials are now looking to make sure they don’t carry any cash through an inverse into the new crop but there is time. The Census Bureau exports for corn have been running well over inspections, a fact that made the USDA lowering corn exports on last week’s WASDE report somewhat questionable. The main reason could possibly be due to rail shipments to both Canada and Mexico but we have to note, to say we have no old crop corn export demand due to cheaper South American offers may not be correct either. We have no water born export demand, but the rail is still working nicely.

For tonight and tomorrow, July corn has resistance at 782 and 734 with support at 764 and 754. December corn has resistance at 728 and 734 with support at 715 and 708.

 

SOYBEANS:     Private exporters reported a sale of 100 tmt of US soybeans for 2021/22 to unknown destinations (thought to be Europe) only to have USDA confirm the sale had been canceled. Is it new crop or just canceled? China has been very quiet this week.

Chile is in looking for soymeal for September, Pakistan is in for soybeans in October, and Malaysia is looking for soymeal in October. Argentina registered 66,616 mt of soyoil for export on Tuesday.

Export sales on Thursday are anticipated to be 300 tmt for old crop and 300 tmt for new crop. No sales are expected for soyoil and 150 tmt is anticipated for soymeal.

The highest monthly close for a lead contract monthly close on soybeans is 1766. Even pushing close to the 2012 all-time high of 1794.75, the July soybeans have yet to close over 1766 on a monthly basis but will that be the case at the end of June via reports?

IHS Markit (Informa) released their estimate for soybean acres to be down 280,000 acres from their May estimate to 88.7 million acres and this also compares to the March Intentions of 91 million acres. The yield was increased slightly from 51.5 to 52 bpa.

Brazilian soybean export basis for July traded 90 under before recovering later on Tuesday but, Brazilian export FOB (freight on board) is beating US offers from the spot into the first half of October.

On Tuesday evening, we commented about Argentina raising its biodiesel mandate to 7% from 5% but we are hearing talk today that they will reportedly raise the mandate to 12.5% for the next 60 days to combat their diesel shortage.

There are reports of 429 tmt of soymeal trading at the ports this morning in China with most of it for forward positions. The Chinese sow herd was reported at 41.8 million head for April, unchanged from March, and they slaughtered 97.5 million head in the January-April period, up 46% from a year ago for the same period.

The Indonesian trade minister was fired over the palm oil uproar, and an article today said India is entertaining allowing wheat exports to Indonesia in exchange for palm oil. Indonesia booked 4 cargoes of French wheat this week.

As of last night’s close, there were 22,000 July $16 puts that were open with 9 days to expiration, and according to market rumor, one entity owns about 20,000 of those. These have to be watched as the owner could either sell them out to garner whatever time value might be left, which would be slightly positive on its delta affect, or the owner could possibly roll them up, with negative delta to the market.

Processor bids are weaker this week and one wonders if they are taking another saying to heart, “thou shalt not carry cash through an inverse to the new crop.” This may be especially so with August being a time when plants take downtime.

Bottom line, soybeans continue to correct the floater and timer which continues to offer selling on bounces. Lately, Wednesdays had been very volatile days and then it became Thursdays. Will tonight and tomorrow be another? Down? We admit, we have been holding out a positive underpinning for the July futures going into option expiration. Will that occur? After all, wheat holds a long term double top, corn holds a long term double top, and now soybeans. All of these are double tops with the highs of 2012. Fundamentals barring a weather market like we seen in 2012, are much more bullish than other fundamentals were back then. The world is hungry, is the market waiting for a weather market this summer in the US? Perhaps.

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1705 and 1716 with support at 1682 and 1670.  November soybeans have resistance at 1533 and 1542 with support at 1516 and 1508.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures were mixed today amongst the exchanges. Calendar spreads were stronger and Chicago gained on KC which is seasonal. Wheat also lost to corn which is seasonal as well.

This market had little news today but Vietnam is looking for 50 tmt of feed wheat for August, Japan is in tonight for 186 tmt of wheat on their weekly tender, and Bangladesh is in June 22nd for 50 tmt of wheat.

Export sales on Thursday are expected to come in at 375 tmt.

As for harvest, the weather is quickly drying down and maturing northern SRW while the harvest is cleaning up in the south. We should see a good pace on next Tuesday’s harvest progress report. The Kansas harvest is gaining speed, with variable yields, and only the northwest of the state still needs another week for maturity. Some fields in Nebraska is ready to go and just waiting for custom cutters to come. There have been reports of higher protein in the HRW but cash domestically remains defensive for both HRW and SRW due to harvest.

IHS Markit estimated spring wheat acres at 10.5 million acres, up 340,000 acres from their May estimate, and compares to 11.2 million acres in the March intentions report. Durum wheat acres were revised downward to 1.72 million acres compared to USDA at 1.92 million acres.

Private forecasts calls for some rain for Argentine wheat areas with Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimating 30% of the crop is planted versus 36% last year.

IKAR estimated the Russian wheat crop at 87 MMT compared to their previous estimate of 85 MMT and exports of 41 MMT versus 39 MMT.

Turkey said it is waiting for a response from Russia on a grain corridor from Ukraine without removing mines, which is a no for Russia? Iraq indicated it has procured 1.8 MMT of wheat from strategic reserves and will need 3 MMT.

Countries are back to restricting wheat exports as the UAE banned re-export of Indian wheat for four months, and Kazakhstan capped wheat exports at 550 tmt, and flour at 370 tmt until September 30th.

The CME started its first trading day of a new Canadian FOB wheat contract, completely unheralded from the normally efficient CME marketing machine, and had volume of 100 contracts traded.

Bottom line, wheat futures continue to trade within a range or pin-net formation. We saw corn do similar last year and eventually slipped before renewing another leg higher.  For tonight and tomorrow, July Chicago wheat has resistance at 1061 and 1071 with support at 1038 and 1025.  KC July wheat has resistance at 1144 and 1153 with support at 1125 and 1115.

 

LIVESTOCK:     The Ocean Reform Shipping Act passed through Congress today. The legislation marks the first significant changes to how the US will govern container trades in nearly three decades. The bill will increase the power of the Federal Maritime Commission to address the trade practices of foreign ocean carriers.

American ports continue to post high numbers with the Port of Long Beach reaching its second-best May ever this year. Last week, there were still 92 container ships waiting off the US ports, earlier this year that number was 150.

Wonder, a food-delivery start-up was valued at 3.5 billion. The food delivery company aims to create a network of food truck restaurants that can cook curbside meals from chef-inspired menus. The service is currently available in a group of New Jersey suburbs located west of New York City.  The company plans to expand further in the state later this year with plans to reach various regions by 2035. We wonder (no pun intended) if these meals contain meats. We suspect so and should be a success in home delivery or taking meals home.

The company has spent hundreds of millions of dollars figuring out how to re-engineer high-quality restaurant meals such as seared steak in a small kitchen with limited gear, as well as how to speed up cooking.

Consumers who purchase food for in-home consumption have generally experienced higher prices relative to wheat they pay for menu items at quick-service and fast-casual restaurants which is a trend that makes restaurants more comparatively appealing according to the Head of Restaurant Finance at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.

This is one of several key viewpoints in the mid-year outlook on the restaurant industry, which also includes the abatement of labor shortages, disruptions in the beef supply, high real estate utilization, and a potential acceleration of mergers and acquisitions.

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) indicated that food away from home CPI (restaurant purchases) rose 7.4% for the year ending April 2022. In contrast, the food at home CPI (grocery and supermarket food purchases) rose 11.9% higher for the year ending May 2022.

Disruptions in the beef supply are putting related restaurant businesses at risk because of the longer cycle of beef gestation, cultivation, and ultimate provision, as opposed to such commodities as poultry and fish, which are characterized by a shorter supply cycle.

Cattle futures surged today on the fats and not so much on feeder cattle.  We hear a few packers came into the week short bought and have reached for cattle. We have a lot of summer left and believe cattle numbers will be strong. Therefore, we are not chasing this market but rather feel the market is moving too fast in a day when down and that gets the market too close to our objective with lots of time to do so.

The late wire from the USDA showed cash trade at 2,450 head in Nebraska at $230-236 and Iowa selling 2,000 head at 145-146. Kansas sold 300 head at 138-139. Texas was pretty quiet and sold one load at 138.

The afternoon cutout choice beef was down $1.22 at $268.22 and select down $1.14 at $245.68 with movement at 115 boxes and 19 trim. The product has peaked and no surprise there. Still, packers remain profitable but not as much as they have enjoyed for the past two years.

Feedlots are current which is comingled with the heat and death loss in Kansas. The cattle being lost are the heavier weights which are ready for market and that is driving the cash higher from Monday’s low. Bottom line, beef production is peaking if not already has. This is bullish but we still don’t trust this market as we move into July. A dip lower into August sets this market up for much better days in our opinion.

One wonders why the dollar has remained so strong. We suspect this is due to foreign investment coming to the dollar as it is viewed as a safe haven while other countries are struggling.

 

 

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FCI Morning Audio for 6-15-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans and corn trying to see a corrective rally but rather quiet for now.


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-14-2022

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC.

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

June 14, 2022

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open. DONE (4-19-2022)

Soybeans:     Recommend making 20% cash sales on new crop soybeans and pick up remaining old crop sales (November 1514-1515).  Done 6-2-2022      

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

As Bloomberg commented this afternoon, “the countdown to the Fed decision is on and markets are volatile.” Traders remain cautious ahead of tomorrow’s rate decision by the Fed and markets have priced in a 0.75% increase in interest rates. What if the Fed decides to only raise rates 0.50%? Futures should be off to another race higher. However, chart indicators that we follow indicate that may not happen? What if the rate is increased a full 1%?  Hang onto your shirt. S&Ps closed lower for the fifth consecutive session, which is the longest slide since January.

However, Bitcoin fell for its eight consecutive session and we believe the market is bent on teaching respect amongst many players or should we say investors? We will go with players. Too many younger traders have not been around markets long enough to fully grasp what can and eventually will happen. Money came too easily and now is the teaching of respect. This is truly not a bad thing, but longer term a very good thing. Respectful traders/investors makes for better longer term traders and investors. Perhaps, I am speaking from experience.:)

 

WEATHER:     We share below an update from our South American weather source. Enjoy…

  Top-10 Weather Bullets On Our Mind

  1. Texas tropical aim much reduced over the weekend with the favored Florida long-range track now in the cards:  Before the 20th of June, there will likely be ‘strike #2’ on Florida.  Originally, before even any low was on the circulation maps in the Caribbean, the initial algorithmic structuring of any low was taking a future low into Texas, but this calculation is getting almost wiped-off the board because of the heat coming into Texas this week.  And as per our long-range modeling that had extra heat and dryness expanding into Texas from may onward, the heat is too much of an enemy against most of the low-end strength tropical entities.  Only the strongest of hurricanes could come into Texas during a heatwave (but nothing like that is in the cards).  
  2. A big surprise for many NOT ‘in-the-know’ is the large amount of sweltering 90s moving into the Midwest and some days 100F plus up the Plains:  Since the North-Central States has been relatively cool, compared to normal, the last few weeks, the sudden heatwave is going to be a shock.  It’s not just the wide coverage of 90s coming up into Iowa and surrounding States that will be impressive, it’s also the amount of humidity that will be streaming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico due to the wider circulation and the deeper ‘throw-out’ of the tropical moisture which will make minimum temperatures into the North-Central States at times much higher than normal too, causing a large increase in cooling demand over more than 30 States this week.
  3. The focus is on a dramatic increase in Week 2 temps into southern Canada showing the overall expanse of the Bow Echo Wave Dome over North America in the last tercile of June:  During the June 20-30 period, it’s likely that temperatures across the South including Texas will NOT be as hot as the big crescendo that happens THIS week as the Bow Echo Wave Dome takes a bit of a reprieve or an inhale; however, the amount of heat that will press further northward will be GREATER, and so even though the PEAK intensity of the heat will come down inside the Bow Echo Wave Dome, the ‘dragon fire’ expanse of heat further northward will increase into the southern provinces of Canada.
  4. July is going to see heat build into the Central USA, and then as the Bow Echo Wave moves into a line from Michigan to Louisiana in late July, we are likely looking at a hotter August in the East whereas the West will gain ground in the cooling effect of the US-Pacific Cold Pool:  So in the 2H Summer, there will likely be (aka with our calculated probabilities at between 72% and 81% depending on the week’s calculated changes) a circulation shift OVER the USA, where the East goes warmer deviation to normal, and the West goes cooler deviation to normal.  This is going to shift the cooling demand, with lower amounts into the Central USA in August, but higher amounts into the Atlantic Seaboad in August too.  There is an additional element here for the East, in conjunction with the SW Loop Circulation Wheel, in that there will be moisture (heavy tropical rains at times) and higher humidity up into the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic States at times in the 2H Summer into the Fall.
  5. We keep talking about a pretty sizeable shift for the 2H Summer but it’s not going to affect everyone, and in fact, it’s going to get hotter in August in the East while the Plains cools-down from top to bottom:  Overall, it’s going to be a hotter summer when we broadbrush the season ahead for the USA, but the weather circulation is going to go through a bigger “snap” where the Bow Echo Wave Axis will push suddenly eastward, and the US-Pacific Cold Pool will then push suddenly eastward too, thereby shifting all the different temperature, precipitation and wind patterns toward the East, making ironically BOTH the Central and Eastern US more stormy, and windier, but the East will get hotter and the West-Central States will see periodic cooling.  
  6. Those in the Northern Hemipshere may not care much about how dark-blue the magnetics are becoming in Argentina signaling how cold it’s going to get down there going intothe first half of their winter soon, but those in the Central USA should care because it has a direct correlation to how hot it’s going to get in the Plains, South & Midwest into and through much of July:  Talk about Southern Snowbirds, there’s going to be many Argentinians ‘flooding’ into the USA this summer because they will want to escape a ‘horribly’ cold winter.  We have described this teleconnection a few times before, and now that it’s coming true as “polar fronts” push into Argentina, and as heatwaves brew over the Central USA, our latest research shows that this is going to be repetitive over the next 6 weeks, and then the situation will shift with less cold in Argentina (and surrounding countries) and then less heat overall in the USA soon thereafter, which would make that about the end of July or the beginning of August for this shift to occur.
  7. The Pacific NW is the only region now with below normal temperatures despite being surrounded by positive-ion oscillations, so this tells us how strong the US-Pacific Cold Pool is and shows us its power for later this summer:  The very visible observation is that the Pacific NW is having a TOTALLY OPPOSITE temperature field to what it had last year at this time when conditions were literally burning hot, and so it’s important to dig deeper to find out why this shift has occurred, and the importance of what happens further downstream.  Our algorithms are continually saying that this US-Pacific Cold Pool is going to grow, sometimes with help from the CA Inner Cold Pool South feeding negative (cool) ions northward, and then in July a stronger connection to the Arctic Compression Low (ACL) which will make July in the Rockies a very changeable month with deeper-layer thunderstorms and a mix of hotter and cooler periods.  That shift will then push further eastward and southeastward in late July into early August, producing a cooling effect down the Plains in August, and bringing unusual rains to the Northern Plains (and southern Canada).
  8. One area of atmospheric research that we are really ‘sinking our teeth into’ is the topic of the Arctic region chilling-off, and not only is not supposed to chill-off right before the Summer Solstice, it’s chilling-off more rapidly and more intensely than our algorithms have been forecasting it to do so:  And that really begs the question — could it get colder, or much colder, this Fall into Winter 2022-2023 than our long-range modeling is indicating?  We will be monitoring all this in the next weeks and months to come.
  9. The India Monsoon is beginning this week, and that’s a big switch ‘on’ for the global circulation channels of weather:  Some of our research is already pinpointing a pretty good correlation between a poorly organized Monsoon in India and a resultant stronger SW Loop Circulation Wheel.  What this will likely mean is that the 2022 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic is going to be busier than usual (because of this stronger SW Loop), but the positioning over the Southeast USA which is the most intense point of the SW Loop will cause the majority (aka circa 70%) of 2022 named storms to come up into and near Florida and then up into the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and even the Northeast this year.  
  10. Oceanic temperatures are shifting:  the North Pacific is gaining in temperature now, and part of that is because the solar angle is increasing over the Northern Hemisphere but also it’s because a crescendo of heat from India and China is flowing into the North Pacific, yet the North Atlantic is overall going through a cooling mode, outside of the zone closer to the US East Coast that is influenced by the SW Loop Circulation Wheel of course.  Our algorithms show that this means that WIND is going to be a big issue in the 2H 2022, with increasing storms coming into both the West Coast of the USA and then ‘dive-bombing’ the Rockies with bigger snowstorms into the Plains in late 2022, but also more wind into Western / NW Europe during this Autumn.

 

  

CORN:      Regardless of a sales announcement of 148 tmt of US corn sold to Mexico with 103 tmt of the sale in old crop and the rest in new crop, futures paid little attention and closed down 1 to a quarter cents lower. We suspect the old crop July is dealing with selling under the guise of a larger 40 million bushels increase in the 2021/22 crop year carryout implying farmers were holding more corn. While, basis remains strong, farmers are said to be light sellers and may be awaiting to see how the heat plays out into mid-July?

Argentine farmers are expected to lower fertilizer usage on corn this season which should impact the corn crop more than most other crops.  Argentine president, Alberto Fernandez has imposed a series of protective measures to tackle ever-rising domestic inflation levels in the country, warning of increases in export taxes and potential additional measures to protect the domestic market, bringing further uncertainty into the farming sector.

Anec estimates potential exports during June for corn at 1.8 MMT. Exports this year have improved nicely from that of last year’s drought-stricken production.

Latin American corn is seeing private Philippines buyer booking a second cargo for September shipment after Philippines relax its corn import tax in late May.

We wonder, is the stronger dollar causing the US exports to take a back seat to other destinations?

Corn futures are fighting the pressure of wheat, but this market is also looking at tight farmer cash sales and heat which is feared to cause crop conditions to slip in the next two weeks and we suspect the next four weeks. Corn should find support on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

 

SOYBEANS:     After trying to rally on a turnaround anemic Tuesday, futures fell and closed lower for the session. Is a down Monday, down Tuesday, down every day of the week except one a legitimate saying? We shall see. We have never followed the saying in the downward slope.

In the 70’s soybeans were used by traders as an inflationary hedge similar to the Argentine farmers. However, inflation these days is on steroids due to the pandemic and Chinese lockdowns. So, this may lead to interest rate hikes more aggressive than what we experienced in the 70s? That said, interest rates eventually reached 20% which was a cue for those with savings and a detriment to those needing to borrow. This lead to the recession of 1985 which by the way, affected only agriculture and not the city folks. This time around is different as everyone worldwide is experiencing inflation.

As for soybeans and other agricultural markets, we have been to these prices before without much rhetoric on food shortages, etc. This time, many globally are worried about being able to secure enough food supplies timely. Countries are hand-to-mouth and a stronger dollar with rising interest rates will only squeeze various poorer nations to feed their people.

The Argentine government is rumored to raise the local mandate to B7 from the current B5. Blend was reduced by mid last year to 5% from 10% in order to expand soybean oil exports, but now skyrocketing prices of imported GO changed the equation.

India’s palm oil imports during May fell 10%  from April as soft oils rise.

Latvia scrapped binding biofuel blending until the end of 2023.

Brazil is expected to export between 9 and 10 MMT of soybeans during June per the country’s grains exporters association Anec. The line-up for soybeans is 10.8 MMT in June. If realized, that Anec utilizes shorter cargo loading, the shipments could be down from the 11.1 MMT exported during June last year.

Malaysian palm oil futures rallied overnight following a slight depreciation of the ringgit and news that Indonesia’s maximum export levy will be higher from August 1st. Furthermore, the Malaysian currency depreciated against the US dollar. This offered buyers more incentive to purchase in ringgit. However, Indonesia announced overnight that it has increased its palm oil export quota to 2.25 MMT from the earlier decision of 1 MMT.

A firmer basis premium but a weaker underlying contract in Chicago caused soyoil to slip $19/mt today.

Soybeans are suffering from bears trying to enforce a massive double top from last week’s high of 1784 to the 2012 high of 1794.75.  We suspect the market is looking at a negative week on Friday which is a long weekend with Juneteenth being celebrated with Monday markets closed but reopening on Monday evening regular time. The July is trying to test the 1690 support of last week and we wonder if Wednesday will offer a stronger session but if so, then a hard down day on Thursday?

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures slipped again today, and we wonder if this market is setting up another potential short covering session on Wednesday. The lack of exportable supplies should underpin this market. Some analytical firms estimate the potential of 30 to 32 MMT less wheat for exports or available for exports in 2022/23. If correct, then prices should not crater but waffle through a correction during harvest. Kansas wheat harvest was estimated at only 2% complete so, there should be much rhetoric to hear about yields.

The heat is upon us and we note winds are stronger in much of the Midwest. Be it corn, soybeans or wheat to harvest, moisture will be zapped or sucked out quickly. Today’s air in our neck of the woods, is quite dry and humidity is lower. For wheat, the market is behaving more seasonally with harvest occurring domestically. Still, we wonder if seasonal lows will be struck earlier than normal?

European wheat production is expected to be smaller with hot and dry conditions hitting western Europe. Southern Russia is said to be drying out and Russia may never export 40 MMTs as forecast.  We note, AG Resource estimates Russian exports may only amount to 31 MMT of wheat in 2022/23 which is down a touch from the current crop year.

Internal woes are thought to blunt Argentina’s wheat export clout amidst tight global supplies. Early expectations that Argentina could capitalize on the interruption of wheat supplies form the Black Sea appear to be fading as a combination of weather and inflation along with political uncertainty combine to thwart the country’s agricultural and export sector.

The 2022/23 winter wheat crop, currently being planted in Argentina and is the first of Argentina’s main crops to be sown after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, farmers are planting under the lingering impact of a second consecutive La Nina – and amidst early fears that the country could experience an extremely rare third consecutive La Nina in the months ahead – dry conditions have slowed planting progress. A total of just 30% of the area has been planted with wheat as of June 8th, down 6.2% from the same level a year ago according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Initial estimates peg the wheat crop at 20.5 MMT for 2022/23 season which is down from the record high of 22.4 MMT in 2021/22, but the exchange warns that planted area could be slashed further and any consequent hit to production potential likely is to be exacerbated if dry conditions persist. It is thought less hectares will be planted this year due to concerns of weather and less availability of fertilizers.

We share, Rosario Grain Exchange says along side a potential La Nina, some area has been lost as dry conditions mean producers that have purchased intermediate to long cycle seeds that won’t be able to plant unless rains come soon.

That said, Argentine wheat export dynamics are surging this year with nearly 90% of the exportable quota filled already. Only 30% of the crop is planted and risk is still there. The usage of fertilizer in Argentina is estimated to fall 7% this season.

For Argentine wheat, the export quota has been set at 10 MMT for 2022/23 which is nearly 4.5 MMT less than exports achieved last season when the country enjoyed a record crop of 22.4 MMT. Many Argentine farmers have migrated away from planting wheat to barley with barley area expected to expand by 8.3% pm the year to 1.3 million hectares.

We share, while Brazil remains the main market for Argentine wheat, taking 2.6 MMT in the first half of 2021/22, an increase in shipments to Africa has been noted taking 5.9 MMT according to BCR.

Bottom line, we think wheat is going to try strike a low tonight and tomorrow for a rally effort. This rally needs to be watched closely.

 

LIVESTOCK:      Cash steer trade was reported in the late USDA wire with Texas selling 2,200 head at 136-136.5, Kansas selling 300 head at 137- 139, Nebraska selling 7,400 head at $223 and Iowa selling 2,800 head at 141 – 145. There is talk that Nebraska actually sold some cattle at 149 and buyers are bidding for cattle late today with $230 dressed in Nebraska. We suspect the packer is concerned about securing enough cattle in the heat that has moved into the Midwest and Southern Plains. Feedlots came into the heat current and this may be offering the market ability to push the cash higher. What does that say for futures? If, traders are nervous as the packer seems, then futures should push higher but heat tends to slow demand as well.

Death losses are said to be high in Kansas and into Texas due to the heat comingled with humidity.     

 

 

DISCLAIMER:      This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

FCI Morning Audio for 6-14-2022.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary

Soybeans trying for a feeble turnaround Tuesday.


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This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 6-13-2022

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

.June 13, 2022

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy and we will work on new crop 2021/22.

 Corn :      *Recommend making 15% new crop sales at 708 basis December futures. On breaks, we suggest end users buy September corn options – calls. DONE (4-5-2022)

4-12-2022:  Recommend making 15% cash sales on both old if you still have some and on new crop basis September futures at 770. (the target is at 775 but we do not wish to push this to that target fully) (when September futures hit 770 then base your cash sales off of December or new crop but recommend using hedge-to-arrives and leaving basis open.  DONE (4-18-2022) September corn reached 777.75.

Soybeans:     With the failure from new contract highs on Tuesday, we recommend making 20% cash sales of new crop and should there be any old crop left we recommend taking advantage of the basis and moving what  is left. As we move forward in time, we will recommend renewed ownership if the situation warrants the recommendation. (6-1-2022 November soybeans trading at 1515-1516)   DONE (6-2-2022)

Wheat:     *Recommend making 20% cash sales based on December Chicago wheat (718.75) and December KC wheat (721.75)   DONE

 

WEATHER:     The 6-10 day forecast calls for normal precipitation for the Canadian Prairies with above normal temperatures affecting the east.  For the European Union, the forecast calls for continued below normal rainfall for the western regions, below normal rainfall for Russian grain areas with above normal temperatures in the south. Chinese grain areas are forecast to see above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall in the northwestern regions. Brazil’s northern and central crop areas are forecast to see below normal temperatures, with Argentine central and southern crop areas to see hot and drier conditions.

As for the US, traders will watch to see if hot and dry follows the next 10 days.

 

CORN:     Corn futures held relatively well in the face of selling and unwinding bull spreads. The bears in the July contract felt more comfortable when WASDE showed 2021/22 U.S. corn exports would be reduced and allowed for an increase into the carryout which was moved forward into 2022/23. However, 2022/23 domestic corn usage reflected the tight stocks potential amidst strong consumption rates.

Paraguayan producers are estimating a loss of 25%.

USDA said Nebraska is 100% planted on corn. Total planting progress is 97% which is inline with the 5-year average.  North Dakota is 90% complete, Minnesota is 98% planted and South Dakota is 97% planted compared to average pace of 94%.

USDA said 88% of the US corn crop is emerged compared to average of 89%. Illinois is 96% emerged versus average of 89%.  Indiana is 89% emerged and compares to 83% on average. Iowa is 95% emerged compared to normal of 94%.

Nebraska is 92% emerged which is 3% behind normal. Minnesota is 85% emerged compared to normal 94%. Of course, North Dakota stands out as 50% of the corn crop is emerged compared to normal 83%. South Dakota is 85% emerged versus average of 86%.

Corn condition rating for good to excellent was expected at worst to be 73% unchanged from last week but conditions slipped 1% to 72%. It is anticipated that conditions will slip over the coming two weeks in heat.

There is some talk that USDA is overrating Nebraska corn with high northeastern winds toppling 68 pivots and parts only available to fix 3? The Delta corn looks on schedule with potential for overall high yields. Planting still to be completed in the northern Delta.

The Dakotas prevent plant acres is thought to be less than feared but poor emergence due to mucky soils while, much of South Dakota is good.

Corn basis is “screaming stronger” due to tight farmer holding and brisk commercial demand.

Bottom line, barring any serious or prolonged threat to 2022 US corn yields, history would imply the final 2022 US corn yield will advance? If so, then any absence of new demand would suggest corn markets could give up some premium in last half of July. We note, a major cycle window of July 28th  could be a high? For now, we have to take one step at a time and make no mistake, the end of June reports will be volatile and then weather comes back into play after the 4th.

For tonight and tomorrow, July corn has resistance at 780 and 792 with support at 756 and 744. For the week, July corn resistance is 748 and 752 with support at 735 and 726.

For tonight and tomorrow, December corn has resistance at 730 and 739 with support at 709 and 697.  For the week, resistance is 717 and 723 with support at 701 and 691.

 

SOYBEANS:     With soybeans having been the stronger market of grains and oilseeds in the past week and having reached within 10.75 cents of the all-time high of 2012, selling pressure weighed on this market heavily today. Reasons for the selling is potential of a major double top over this market, another outbreak of Covid in Beijing causing a lockdown, and fears of a 0.75% interest rate hike to be announced on Wednesday’s Fed Meeting. The latter weighed on many commodity markets along with the Dow. Managed funds were noted sellers of 13,000 contracts of soybeans, 4,000 soyoil, and 5,000 soymeal on the day.  We share, the Commitment of Traders report showed a smaller soybean long than expected.

A noted trade of buying 2,500 July $18/1850 calls.

Vegetable oil markets fell hard overnight with palm oil reaching a 10-year low due to weakening crude oil prices but crude managed to rally to trade both sides today.  Indonesia modified its palm oil export policy, once more, and now is committing to higher palm oil export volumes just a few weeks after imposing an export ban. Indonesia is the world’s largest palm oil producer and exporter while, Malaysia comes in as number two. Malaysia is forecasting slower exports and rising stock volumes, which is adding more pressure to the global edible oils price complex.

That said, we have to be fully aware that in the face of 91 million planted acres of soybeans being forecast for this new crop season, the carryout is still in decline and at 280 million bushels for 2022/23, this crop cannot handle much adversity with demand very strong.

With the trade disappointed in the WASDE report on last Friday, traders felt comfortable to add to short positions coming into today’s session. We note, in many markets this year, there has been an endeavor to strike double tops which many markets have seen healthy corrections only to come and breach the high. With soybean supplies shrinking and demand viewed as good with an early aggressive start to the new crop export campaign, how aggressive will the sell-off become?

Brazilian soybeans are now cheaper than US soybeans in cash markets even into new crop. China was noted as absent from cash markets today. China bought one cargo of Brazilian soybean for first half of July last Friday. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated 97% of Argentine soybean harvest is complete.

Hot temperatures are forecast for the last two weeks of June with a high pressure ridge feared to set into the central Midwest that should give way to above too much above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.  This could underpin soybeans by month’s end but at the end of the month comes Quarter Stocks Report and the Final Planting Report. These reports are known to be very volatile. Still, soybeans would view hot weather as a good thing for now. August is bean month.  It is corn that is more vulnerable to the heat for now.

88% of the US soybean crop is planted which is on par with the 5-year average and 70% is emerged versus average of 74%. Soybean crop conditions for good to excellent rating are 70% with traders expecting a range of 70-73%.  We looked for 71-72%.

Like corn, the last half of July will be increasingly important for yield forecasts and weather outlook going forward.  Major cycle window timing is due on July 28th.  Do not forget, there is a minor cycle due on June 28th.

The hotter than expected CPI for May reading is challenging the peak inflation story. The soaring 8.6% rate of inflation seen in the 12 months through May is the highest since 1981. It’s now more likely that the Fed will be tightening into a recession as it tries to bring down the cost of living.  ( John Hancock Investment Management Chief Strategist)

Reading many comments from various sources, the common thought is recession is very likely as the only option to kill demand and inflation. We are not so sure about stalling inflation as food is in tight supply around the world. US farmers seem to be in the best position to benefit from the global situation we have going on. In this environment, weather is extremely critical in the world’s number one or two export. In our WAG thought, we could see a recession in 2024. Still, we cannot express enough the risk that is beneath the market as corrections could be swift but global buyers should be ready to cover needs. We do not foresee a disaster until after global buyers have facilities to fill for reserves. Once, those are filled, we could see rationing. Recession shouldn’t stall food demand.

We share, AAA warned to “get ready for gas prices to keep climbing.  Even just the threat of a hurricane, that can shut down crude production can also cause oil prices to rise.”  Does this mean more pressure on soy processors for renewable fuels production?

For tonight and tomorrow, July soybeans have resistance at 1743 and 1777 with support at 1688 and 1667.  For the week, resistance is 1788 and 1823 with support at 1703 and 1653.

 

WHEAT:     Chicago and Minneapolis wheat managed a higher close while, KC wheat closed fractionally weaker. Oats pulled off a nicely higher day.

No doubt Ukrainian harvest concerns for winter wheat and barley remain strong and it is expected that Ukrainian farmers will face difficulty in accessing diesel fuel to harvest with. The southern portion of Odessa started harvesting over the weekend with weather quite dry and barley threshing underway as well.

According to Egypt’s General Company for Silos and Storage, the country has bought up more local wheat supplies than it did a year ago at this time. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer and has acquired an estimated 143.3 million bushels of wheat from its farmers which accounts for an 8% increase. The increase was helped by a new government mandate enforced this year, requires Egyptian wheat farmers to sell at least 60% of their crop to the state. Last year, that figure was set at 40% and farmers who do not comply with the mandates face fines and potential jail time.

Egypt is hoping to buy 220.4 million bushels of local wheat this year which is two-thirds more than in the past two years due to the Black Sea conflict. In past times, Egypt depended on Ukraine and Russia for its wheat supplies.

Heat encompassed Kansas over the weekend helped to dry the crop further and it is already expected to see yields reduced by 25% this year due to the drought. USDA showed 86% of the winter wheat was headed compared to average of 90%. Kansas wheat is 99% headed. As for harvest, 10% of the winter wheat is harvested nationally. In Kansas, only 2% of the crop is harvested compared to average of 4%. A lot is still unknown as to yields. Missouri is 2% harvested compared to average pace of 12%. In Oklahoma, 32% of the crop is harvested compared to average of 33%. Texas has been horribly hot and 53% of the crop is harvested compared to average of 52%. As for SRW, Illinois is 3% harvested compared to normal pace of 9%. Indiana has nothing done yet compared to normal pace of 4%.

Spring wheat planted is 94% versus 99% normal. North Dakota is 91% complete versus normal 99%. Minnesota is 92% complete versus normal pace of 100%. South Dakota is completely planted.

We note, Russia and China announced the opening of a new bridge with “special symbolic meaning” Friday in hopes of bolstering trade as Moscow continues to feel the effects of sanctions imposed by the west over its invasion of Ukraine. The bridge now linking Blagoveshchensk, Russia to Heihe, China over the Amur river will slash the travel distance of Chinese goods into western Russia by 930 miles, giving a boost to trade flow with Beijing that Moscow believes will grow to $200 billion by 2024. (Fox Business)

India’s food ministry commented that India is the world’s biggest rice exporter, has ample stocks of rice and there is no plan to restrict exports. We heard similar comments just before India banned exports of wheat and sugar. Is rice next? Rice is interchangeable for wheat.

Under Argentina’s export curbs, just 10 MMT of the 2022/23 wheat crop can be exported, down from 14.5 MMT in 2021/22. Brazil is looking for wheat for October, Thailand’s TFMA is working offers for 55 tmt of feed wheat for July – October, and Jordan is in tomorrow for 120 tmt of wheat for September/October.

Thus far, Canadian wheat exports for the season are down 43% from a year ago at this time with weather forecasts still looking wet.

Technically, we share the daily Chicago July wheat floater is 19% positive, the timer is 3% negative and the TRx remains positive. The daily stochastic is going to turn long tonight or tomorrow.

For tonight and tomorrow, July Chicago wheat has resistance at 1090 and 1111 with support at 1050 and 1031.  For the week, resistance is 1097 and 1118 with support at 1058 and 1040.

KC July wheat has resistance at 1178 and 1198 for tonight and tomorrow with support at 1141 and 1124. For the week, resistance is 1188 and 1212 with support at 1137 and 1110.

 

LIVESTOCK:      With fear of an interest rate hike of 0.75% on Wednesday via the FED and the stock market dropping hard, cattle futures reversed and closed sharply lower. The heat in the forecast should help to stall demand for beef as people tend to eat lighter in hot weather.

Good news is that U.S. beef exports topped $1 billion in the month of April, the third time exports topped that market this year, according to data compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation. Conversely, pork exports during the month of April sat far below levels seen last year.

U.S. gas prices reached new record average highs of over $5 per gallon and fuel costs are impacting nearly every sector of business and early signs are beginning to point to a change in consumer behavior amid the increasing prices.

Seasonally, feeder cattle prices tend to push for another two weeks to a peak and then decline into August. We note, live cattle seasonally tend to move sideways into August over the past ten years but prices surged the past two weeks and we wonder if the market will move south to test the 130 to 12870 level. Doing so into August would set up this market to seasonally perform better into October.

The heat that is building across the Midwest and has especially spent time in the Southern Plains  was estimated as the reason for a death loss of 300 to 400 head in feedlots with some loss double that or more. Extreme heat from Texas north through Nebraska today may prove to be another serious death loss day for feedlots. This is hitting the heaviest cattle representing the maximum investment possible so, losses to the cattle feeder are extreme. Heat is forecast for the next ten days but, our weather sources predict the first half of July  will be more of the same. Combining heat with high humidity is tough and this may cause the cattle feeder to be willing to take bids from the packer. The show list is smaller with Kansas sharply smaller than listed this week.

The afternoon choice cutout was down $0.78 at $270.54 and select was down $1.44 at $247.45. Movement was 81 loads which compares to 58 loads last Monday. We suspect the cutout is heading lower for the summer.

FYI, August fats today took out the low of last week.   Suspect the open interest will be down sharply tomorrow morning.    

 

DISCLAIMER:     This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.