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Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 12-11-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good  Morning! Soybeans catching reprieve from Friday's selloff.

Futures Cash Info Weekend Update for 12-9-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

December 9, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:     Briefly, the NWS 6 – 10 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures from Oklahoma to Ohio and northward, with below normal precipitation from the Dakotas to Tennessee, and above normal precipitation from Texas to Kansas. The 8 to 14 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures for much of the grain areas, with above normal precipitation for Texas to Kansas and below normal from North Dakota to Kentucky and northward.

 

CORN:      China’s CASDE released their own Supply and Demand report this morning which showed no changes from last month. OK, WASDE released their December 1^st balance sheet  numbers.  US ending stocks were below average guesses at 2.131 billion bushels and is less than November estimate for ending stocks at 2.156 billion bushels.  The USDA increased US corn exports  to the tune of 25 million bushels and keep in mind, they also raised exports last month and caught criticism. World corn stocks came in at 315.2 MMT which was nearly 2 MMT higher than the average trade guess and compares to 315 MMT released in November.

Surprisingly, USDA estimated Brazilian corn production at 129 MMT which was unchanged from their estimate of last month and of course, higher than the average trade guess of 127.2 MMT.  Argentine numbers were left unchanged from last month. WASDE was reluctant to lower the corn number for Brazil since the larger portion of that crop is yet to be planted in the first quarter of 2024. Furthermore, there is still crop of corn and soybeans that has yet to be planted for the summer crop and therefore, WASDE would not be expected to reduce the Brazilian corn or soybeans by much if at all, due to planting progress incomplete. Still, Brazilian corn production at 129 MMT is off the charts higher than trade expectations.

World production was upped 1MMT from last month with Russia up 1 MMT, Ukraine up 1 MMT and Mexico down 1 MMT. 

Bottom line, the numbers were friendly domestically and negative globally, but the set-up is for the opposite when the January numbers are released.

Export demand is so-so with Mexico in looking for corn for February delivery, Malaysia in for February delivery, and Algeria’s ONICL is in for Argentine corn for spot delivery.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated 40% of Argentine corn is planted with the crop 36% good to excellent which is an improvement of 10% from last week.

Lastly, FSA came out with their monthly crop subsidy enrolment data, showing 93.3 million acres of corn registered from last month which is unchanged. The farmer remains long cash and with a sideways trade behavior, no one is feeling pressed to do so unless it is needed to stop interest at the bank.  Back to the old days.

Technically, let’s take a look at the indicators that we love/respect… basis the March corn, Friday’s high tested the 50-day moving average resistance and we note, the trending averages are long (just). The 10-day moving average support is 482.5.  Should the market breach the low of last week of 481.25, we need to keep an eye open as it may stop at 476 or higher and this would give way to a head and shoulders bottom formation along with another large Elliot wave 5 for support.

OK, the  daily floater is 85% positive, the timer is 88% positive, the TRx is positive but losing momentum and the stochastic is 63% on the K and 50% on the D.  It appears $5 corn will remain psychological resistance.

We look for the market to trade both sides on Sunday night but open lower.

Keep in mind, the monthly continuation March corn chart is negative at 1% and so is the timer. The TRx which usually is first to turn higher is positive with lots of room to run. The stochastic is also into position to see a turn higher.

Bottom line, we cannot be sellers in the face of the monthly charts sitting on our indicators as they are. What will change the landscape?

For Sunday night and Monday, March corn has resistance at 492 and 495 with support at 484 and 479.  December 13^th is the next major cycle window of time. A low?

 

SOYBEANS:      Soybeans started the day stronger and reached into resistance near the 1334 but slipped lower on world Supply and Demand numbers that came out viewed negative for soybeans. Funds sold 5,000 contracts of soybeans, 4,000 soyoil, and 2,000 contracts of soymeal.

Domestic ending stocks came out unchanged while traders expected just a touch lower. The USDA did not change anything which we anticipated. WASDE left ending soyoil and soymeal stocks unchanged with exports left untouched in soymeal at 15.3 million short tons.

World stocks of soybeans were pegged at 114.2 MMT which was higher than the average trade guess of 112.9 MMT and just a touch less than last month’s 114.5 MMT. WASDE did not change the soybean numbers from last month. However, WASDE did reduce the soybean production to 161 MMT versus last month at 163 and traders were looking for 160.1 MMT. So, the drop in 2 MMT of production globally, with world trade up 2 MMT with Chinese imports up 2 MMT to 102 MMT.

World soyoil stocks were pushed to 5.39 MMT versus 5.24 MMT last month, and world soymeal stocks were pushed to 15.75 MMT versus last month of 15.69 MMT. World meal stocks increased 2 MMT from the carry in, and 380 tmt in the soyoil, with soybeans up 12 MMT.  Bottom line, with Brazilian production down 2 MMT, Chinese imports up 2 MMT, and the carryout was basically unchanged from last month, the USDA might be indicating that we should not look for anything bullish in these numbers.

China is said to have bought 2 cargos of US soybeans for December – January, and one overnight for January, as well. Chinese private crushers are also said to be inquiring for cargos in January today. The USDA announced 136 tmt of soybeans sold to China this morning.

As we go home for the weekend, the GFS is on the dry side, the European model is still on the wet-side but, Brazil has generally got 50 mm to 100 mm  of rain over Mato Grosso on Thursday. If so, that equates to 2 to 4 inches but other reports say 1 to 2 inches in the western side of the state.

Safras is more negative on the crop, calling soybean production estimate at 158.2 MMT versus their former estimate of 161.4 MMT and they estimated the farmer is 27% sold which compares to normal of 37%.

To start the day, 147 tmt of soymeal were said to have traded at the ports in China, all for nearby shipment. The Chinese crush margins are said to have been improving this week.  There is talk in China, Sinograin is not having problems getting GMO certs from the CIQ that the private crushers are said to be having.

The market may be more focused on Argentina and the new president being installed on Sunday. There is question as to the large Argentine export registrations this week may have all been done in order to pre-pay new crop export taxes in the old pesos, before any changes take place. It is estimated that the Argentine farmer still has 3 to 4 MMT of old crop soybeans left to sell, plus a chunk of new crop.

Technically, the January daily floater is 4% positive, the timer is 3% negative and the TRx is turned positive with lots of room to push. The inner-day 60 minute chart is 16% negative, the timer is 32% negative, and the TRx is negative with stochastics still needing some work done. The inner-day 180 floater is 67% negative, the timer is 94% negative, and the TRx is negative with the stochastic turned south and still more work to do. 

We look for a lower market to start on Sunday night and suspect prices will take a look at this week’s low. January high was 1330.75 today. The area basis the January soybean contract to watch is 1292 and 1285.

For Sunday night and Monday, January soybeans resistance is 1325 and 1344 with support at 1293 and 1280.  Next major cycle window timing is due December 13^th. (another low?)

 

WHEAT:      Friday saw another export sale announced 110 tmt for business done with China but saw good profit taking after the WASDE report was released.  Funds are estimated to have sold 4,000 contracts.

Per WASDE, the all wheat domestic ending stocks were pegged at 659 million bushels which surprised traders since the average guess was 684 million bushels. This is also where the ending stocks were pegged in November so, traders were not expecting any reductions. Exports were increased by 25 million bushels.  HRW ending stocks were put at 280 million bushels unchanged from last month, spring wheat was unchanged at 178 million bushels, and SRW was trimmed to 118 million bushels versus 148 million last month. White wheat stocks increased 5 million bushels to 66 million bushels but no one cares about that. Durum at 17 million bushels also unchanged from November report.

World stocks pegged at 258.2 MMT which was down 500 tmt from last month. The Australian crop was increased 1 MMT, Brazilian wheat lowered 1 MMT, Canada up 1 MMT, so the net was increased 1 MMT. Chinese imports upped 500 tmt to 12.5 MMT, Southeastern Asia upped 1 MMT, and feed wheat usage upped 1 MMT. The report was pretty neutral.

Note, in the spreads, seasonally the KC tends to gain on Chicago around the 13^th for a week or two.

Argentina registered 330 tmt of wheat for export on Thursday.

Russian wheat exports for November were 3.1 MMT which is down 29% from this time a year ago and compares to October exports of 4.8 MMT.

There were articles out on Friday talking about Indian wheat stocks at state warehouses have dropped to 19 MMT, the lowest in seven years, as the Indian government has bought only 26.2 MMT of wheat from farmers this year, against a target of 34.2 MMT.  The Indian government also lowered the amount of wheat stocks users were allowed to hold by half, to 1,000 mt, and said it may release another 2.5 MMT of wheat to the domestic market from state stocks. Our premise remains that countries will build reserves in order to have food on hand and this makes weather a major concern around the world. India is a huge deal with the world’s second largest population.

FSA came out with their monthly crop subsidy enrolment data, showing 53.3 million acres of wheat registered, unchanged from last month.

Bottom line, we had a bullish Supply and Demand report  and another wheat sale announced but the market still closed lower. We suspect this market is catching a breath after a 92 cent rally.  There is another major cycle window timing due on the 13^th and a dip on wheat into that would offer a buying opportunity. Wheat tends to be stronger in December through the first week of January.

The fundamentals on SRW has turned undeniably from bearish to positive with VSR carrying charge structure in the spreads! On top of that, the psychology is more positive, and the trade may be now talking about buying the next pullback in March wheat. Again, if this market breaks into the cycle window of the 13^th, it should offer low risk opportunity. Stay tune…are we getting excited?

For Sunday night and Monday, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 642 and 651 with support at 626 and 619.  We would target a pullback towards 610-607 as a good spot.

 

LIVESTOCK:      Normally, when cattle rally into December 5^th – 8^th it is a selling opportunity until closer towards Christmas. We note, the market has been inverted and wonder, does this mean the market is a buy here? For a short time, yes….

Basis April live cattle, the daily floater is 25% neutral and about to go positive with the timer 14% negative and the TRx just turning higher. The stochastic has been chopping at a low level and the K closed at the D on Friday. The inner-day 60 minute April chart shows the floater 53% positive, the timer is 45% positive, and the TRx is positive with the stochastic 20% D and 46% K.

More so, the inner-day 180 April indicators show the floater 21% positive, the timer at 11% positive, the TRx positive with room to push, and the stochastic just turning higher.

We look for a higher market on Monday. FYI, the inner-day 180 also shows the market has made a low on a small Elliot wave 5 and a large 5.

Technically, the market has broken hard and fast. This is no time to sell short now. A reprieve is coming.  The next major cycle window of time is December 13^th. Should cattle dip into that window, it offers a lower risk buy. Either trade options or be sure to have stops beneath.

The closing beef wire showed choice down $1.83 at $288.01 with select down .93 at $257.90.  We wonder if choice will trade down to $279? Demand for choice seems to be picking up.

Cash trade seemed to be at 169 in Texas and in Nebraska with $270 dressed and Iowa had 300 head trading at 168. Weights were up 4 lbs which is a record. Due to drought, numbers of cattle outside the feedlots should be quite low. There is rain in the forecast and this should offer a chance of better conditions on wheat pastures.      

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 12-8-2023.mp3

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Good Morning!  Wheat is quietly taking a breath while soybeans push higher on weather.

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 12-7-2023.mp3

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Good Morning!  Northern Brazil goes without rain overnight and temps continue high.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-6-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

December 6, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:

 

CORN:     Corn tried to short cover early in the session but as wheat weakened, corn slid lower. Basis the March contract, the 495 to 500 area is tough resistance.

CONAB called Brazilian summer corn 60% planted, which compares to 71% planted last year at this time. CONAB will be out with fresh numbers tomorrow and the trade is awaiting to see how the equivalence of our USDA in Brazil reports production in both corn and soybeans.

South Korea is once again, inquiring about corn in front of the WASDE report which is a pattern they have been known to follow. Korean NOFI bought 65 tmt of corn for April delivery. Egypt is in for corn for February, Malaysia in for corn for February, and Algeria is looking for corn for March delivery.

The Census Bureau reported exports of corn came out at 2.8 MMT for the month of October versus inspections of 2.4 MMT. Export sales are expected to be 600 tmt.

Brazilian export group ANEC calls 2023 corn exports at 55.9 MMT versus 44.7 MMT a year ago and estimates December exports to be 6.7 MMT compared to 7.3 MMT last year.

Deral said that 80% of the Parana corn was in good condition but voiced concerns over pollination due to heavy rains.

The EIA estimated daily ethanol production rate at 1.076 million barrels per day in  the past week, up 65,000 on the week, with stocks at 21.4 million barrels, up 100,000 on the week.

Recall, in the November report the USDA raised exports and while some think the USDA is overrating exports, we suspect that will not change until sometime down the road. It is not expected to see any if at all consumptive changes in Friday’s report. More importantly, we suspect the focus on Friday’s report is all about the Brazilian production and may see WASDE reduce Brazilian corn production 4.5 to 5 MMT on Friday. As usual, it is more about the January reports than the December reports.

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 491 and 498 with support at 480 and 476.

 

SOYBEANS:     The Chinese were quiet on the soybean buying front overnight, having bought two cargos of US Gulf soybeans for February on Tuesday.  FAS reported 136 tmt of soybeans sold to China this morning. Interestingly, the Census Bureau exports on soybeans came out at 9.5 MMT for October versus inspections of 9.6 MMT. Export sales on Thursday are expected to be 1.2 MMT of soybeans, no soyoil, and 150 tmt of soymeal.

Funds are thought to have sold 4,000 contracts of soybeans, 4,000 contracts of soyoil, and 2,000 contracts of soymeal. Futures may be seeing some liquidation in front of the WASDE Supply and Demand Report on Friday.

Brazil got some showers overnight in the central bean producing areas but were less than the forecast called for. The divide between the GFS and the European model runs is keeping the market unsettled, as the GFS has rains pushed back to the middle of next week for northern Brazil, while the European model is wetter in general.

Brazilian export group ANEC called 2023 soybean exports 101.13 MMT compared to last year at 77.8 MMT and soymeal exports at 22.3 MMT versus last year at 20.4 MMT.  December soybean exports are forecast at 3.6 MMT compared to 1.5 MMT last year, and soymeal exports seen at 2 MMT, versus 1.4 MMT last year.

Argentine farmers have sold 1.8 MMT of soybeans for their new crop so far and that compares to 2.3 MMT this time last year. Some 16.4 MMT of old crop has been sold.

Chinese hog futures were down another 4% today and is down 18% in the past ten days.

The Smithfield news may have weighed on soymeal futures today.

Good news for Brazilian farmers and perhaps, US farmers come next season, an exclusive blend that is designed to be the best first application in soybeans is Nortox Scudeiro is coming to the market. Nortox is the largest national manufacturer of agrochemicals and believes they have made a possible combination of fungicides that includes two triazoles in efforts to control of tar spot and rust without running great risks of resistance.

The Supply and Demand report is due out on Friday and WASDE has not issued an ag attache report this month on what Brazilian soy production may be. Still, it is CONAB’s numbers tomorrow that will carry more influence.

Bottom line, there is technical trend line support at 1275.  The soybean-corn ratio is 2.83 and is wider than normal but bulls point to the weather in Brazil while, we note Brazil did plant more soybeans this season and pulled acres away from corn. Still, at a time of flux and hearing rains in the forecast into the last month of the year, we suspect soybeans are seeing some liquidation by longs.

The daily floater is 2% negative, the timer is 6% negative, and the TRx is negative. We suspect this market is bidding time until the year rolls over. The market is still in decline into the cycle window of time that ends this evening.

Therefore, we note, the inner-day 60 minute floater is 19% negative, the timer is 44% negative, the TRx is turning positive, the stochastic has work to do, but this time frame is working on a small Elliot wave 5 and two larger 5s.  However, the inner-day 180 minute floater is 69% negative, the timer is about to go negative at 90%. The TRx is negative.  This indicates that the market will remain sluggish tonight into tomorrow and then perhaps, short covering in front of Friday’s report.

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1308 and 1320 with support at 1289 and 1282.   The next major cycle window of timing is due December 13^th.    

 

WHEAT:      West-central and southwestern portions of the US Plains continue to miss significant rains leaving the ground drier than usual for this time of year. Over the coming ten days, some light precipitation is forecast , but little to no serious relief will result through the end of December. Below normal rainfall has been occurring in the remainder of Texas and southern along with eastern Oklahoma, though some timely rain fell in these areas over the past 30 days which prevented dryness from becoming as serious as it is in some HRW production areas.  However, World Weather, Inc., believes  weather pattern changes are to be expected in early 2024 that should bring some much needed rain to the southern and central Plains.

Areas of southeastern Colorado, western Kansas and Oklahoma, as well as west Texas and areas into the Blacklands of Texas have experienced 25% or less precipitation for the 30-day period ending December 5^th. Topsoil conditions are rated short to very short across these areas as well. Little precipitation is forecast over the next ten days, though a couple of weather systems are forecast. The first precipitation event will occur Saturday and Sunday but bring only trace amounts of moisture. A dusting of an inch of snow is possible in some areas in the overnight and early morning hours. Another round of light precipitation is forecast from December 12^th to 15^th. Moisture amounts are expected to be similar.

Funds were said to have bought 3,000 contracts on the day.

Egypt’s GASC bought 180 tmt of wheat with two cargos coming from Russia and one from Ukraine. Algeria bought 450 tmt of durum on Tuesday’s tender, Korea’s  NOFI passed on their tender for 65 tmt of feed wheat for March delivery, Lebanon is in tonight for 30 tmt of wheat for spot delivery, and Japan is in for their weekly tender. Bangladesh will be in on the 12^th for 50 tmt of wheat for December – January delivery, and Pakistan is tendering December 27^th for 110 tmt of wheat for January delivery.

Tomorrow’s weekly export sales are anticipated to be around 600 tmt.

The Census Bureau showed wheat exports at 1.1 MMT for October versus inspections of 946 tmt .  USDA uses the Census Bureau numbers for their final exports.

After all the rumors this week on Chinese buying, traders still are expecting some HRW to China to be announced.  Argentine farmers have sold 3.4 MMT of wheat from their new crop thus far, and compares to 6 MMT sold this time last year.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said November rainfall was 38% above normal, but did not make up for spring rains that were 20% below normal. Still, there is more talk of quality damage with the recent rains for the Australian wheat.

Today’s announcement of another sale of SRW to China at 1.52 MMT this week and has some wondering if it matters what the USDA estimates the exports and ending stocks at???

The next cycle window of timing is December 13^th.  December seasonally is an up month for wheat with the contract having a strong tendency to find the ultimate seasonal high the first week of January.

The focus therefore, is going to be on the new crop with the US looking at smaller acreage, but the next season’s southern hemisphere production will probably be large enough to offset our reduction. The European Union crop is getting off to a tough start, with late planting, the Russians on the dry side, and Ukraine is tied up with fighting that will keep its wheat production at or below 20 MMT. Spring time weather will be very important as it always is. Note, futures rallied 92 cents.

Now, the futures of both Chicago and KC saw some liquidation today on the 7^th day  higher in a cycle count and cycle window timing.  The March Chicago daily floater is 79% positive, the timer is 63% positive, and the TRx is positive with the stochastic showing the K at 79% and the D at 55%. Again, recall, the monthly continuous March wheat floater is positive and the timer remains at 1% negative but the TRx is also positive.  The inner-day 60 minute floater is 27% negative, the timer is 57% negative, the TRx is negative and the stochastic is turned lower. However, the 5 and 15 indicators are at 1% negative and the TRx is very low with a stochastic at 14% which we suspect indicates the market opens lower and tries to rally but, we do not wish to chase here. The inner-day 180 clearly has work in correction to do. We will watch.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Did someone forget to tell the futures that this is Christmas and therefore a mixture of green should go along with all the red on the screen in fats and feeders? No doubt, another brutal down day.

Smithfield Foods announced it will terminate contracts with 26 hog farms in Utah due to challenging market conditions. The number of Smithfield positions eliminated may be up to one-third of the 210 currently employed in its Utah hog production operations.

Note, France has put the country on high alert for bird flu.

Cattle managed to trade higher early but could not hold onto the rally effort. Feeders reached back to contract lows but did not breach very far. Cash trade late was 6,200 head in Kansas sold for 171, Nebraska sold 7,500 head at 170 to 171 and 267 – 272 dressed. Iowa sold 3,200 head at 170 to 171. Texas sold 3,400 head at 170 to 171.

The boxed beef choice was down $3.19 at $290.56 with select up .77 at $259.90. Boxed movement was excellent at 171 loads and 65 trim.

Technically, the daily April floater is 25% negative, the timer is 18% negative, the TRx is negative and the stochastic has been clipping sideways since mid-October. Prices have broken into the cycle window of time which ended today. Can the market catch here? I am suspicious as the inner-day 60 minute floater is 51% negative, the timer is 62% positive, the TRx is negative, and the stochastic is 17% on the K and 23% on the D. Futures are pushing at Elliot wave 5s both small and large.  Likewise, the inner-day 180 is also in correction and pushing 5s.  We have to wait and watch for some sign that this market is ready for a much better rally effort. We suspect interest rates are playing a hand in this market’s weakness.

 

DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 12-6-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Wheat futures higher to start Wednesday's day session on anticipation of more sales to China announcements..

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-5-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

December 5, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:

 

CORN:     Corn broke into the cycle window timing of today but did a nice about face turn higher on soybeans selling and buying of corn in unwinding of spreads. However, it was the rumors that the rumors that China was washing out of Brazilian corn exports, with indications that they might come to the US for replacements. Why would China do this? China may be looking to wash out of Brazilian corn purchases as the Brazilian export FOB (freight on board) for January traded 100 over the March at Santos port, which is some 30 cents more expensive than the Gulf, and roughly on par with the PNW values.

AgRural whom we respect their analysis appreciably, called the center/south summer corn planting in the country 91% complete, and crop scout Michael Cordonnier was said to have lowered his estimate of Brazilian corn production to 118 MMT which is down 3 MMT from his previous estimate. Notably, acres for corn is down this season versus larger acreage planted to soybeans. This may make for a big deal should the hot and dry weather continue as we past the year over and move well into January. The safrinha corn is what gets planted behind soybeans but, should the planting be delayed, it could mean later planting of safrinha corn. The safrinha crop makes up nearly 75% of the Brazilian corn production and is largely the corn that gets exported. Cordonnier also stated that corn ethanol now represents 18% of the Brazilian ethanol production.

Ukraine said it has exported 13.4 MMT of grains for their season to date, compared to 18.3 MMT this time a year ago.

NOTE, the USDA set the interest rate on farm operating loans at 5.75%.  A GAO report showed $17.3 billion in crop insurance subsidies went to 13 insurance companies last year, which have averaged cumulative profits of $1.4 billion per year over the last 10 years, a precursor to likely cutting subsidies on the new Farm Bill.

As to the report due out on Friday, the domestic stocks are forecast to rise by 60%, and world stocks are forecast to rise by 5%. For now, the large specs are short and the farmer is cash long at a historically high percentage of new crop while, the Brazilian farmer is also thought to be long old crop but, the seasonals are up for December, and the Index Funds have a fairly large amount of corn that it needs to buy the second week of January to rebalance. The calendar year is nearing an end before long.

So, this takes us to the large spec versus the farmer and seeing who will uncle first. The spec is expecting the farmer to cave on a sell-off but the farmer normally likes to wait for a spring rally to make cash sales. Stay tune on this …. In the past, the farmer has been able to have better staying power, but it will be up to the weather.

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 493 and 496 with support at 485 and 480.        

 

SOYBEANS:      Clearly, soybeans have broken into the first day of the cycle window timing which will last through Wednesday night since these are in calendar days.  The market started better on a bit less rain expected rain in Brazil, catching a few cargos of Chinese buying, but the market rejected the rally effort when soyoil  collapsed.  The specs are long soybeans and soymeal and the Chinese demand is disappointing while the weather in Brazil is forecast to be dry for the next 5 days, and the farmer is long the cash market. However, by the end of the session, soymeal was up sharply and this turned the soybeans higher and closed higher on the session.

European Union reports their season to date soybean imports at 4.66 MMT compared to 4.68 MMT this time last year.  Soymeal imports are 6.3 MMT versus 7.12 MMT by December 3^rd 2022.  Since, the middle of November soymeal prices have slid $54 per tonne.  However, since December  soymeal became lead contract, it has made a 62% retracement of 409.60 this week.  That is quite a break. Perhaps this explains the turn higher today.

Brazil’s Inmet projects intense rain for the northern Brazilian grain areas today. Inmet said soybean planting in Mato Grosso is complete which is late, and the Itau Bank called the soybean crop 158 MMT in their estimate today. Ag Coop Coamo said the Brazilian soybean crop is having some problems, but overall the crop is in good condition.

The Brazilian export FOB for April is trading 80 under the May at the port of Paranagua, and Brazilian soymeal premiums are softer, with crush volume increasing.

Crop scout Michael Cordonnier said his estimate of late for the Brazilian crop is 157 MMT which is one of the lower we have heard thus far. That is a decline of 1 MMT from his last estimate.

FYI, Chinese hog prices have fallen 7% “this morning,” making the drop of 14% in the past ten days.

In the US, farmer selling remains slow, domestic soy basis is flat, the Gulf is weaker up front, the soymeal is steady, and the soyoil has a weaker tone.

Technically, we start with the inner-day 30 minute indicators and note the floater is 22% positive, the timer is 8% positive, the TRx is positive, and the stochastic is turned higher.

The daily January soybean floater is 4% negative, the timer is 8% negative, the TRx is negative, and the stochastic is 14% on the K and 30% on the D.

The inner-day 180 flaoter is 68% positive, the timer is 31% positive, the TRx is positive with room to push, and the stochastic appears ready to move higher. The market made a low today at the small 5 and two larger Elliot wave 5s.

We look for the market to push higher tonight into tomorrow. After that, the trade may turn focus on the Friday Supply and Demand Report.

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1318 and 1326 with support at 1297 and 1284.      

 

WHEAT:      Out of character, wheat closed higher for the 7^th day in a cycle count. Wheat has clearly rallied into the cycle window of timing.

Note, there are rumors this afternoon that China has picked up a few more cargoes of HRW in addition to the SRW that has been announced. The FAS reported another sale of 198 tmt of SRW sold to China today. This caught some by surprise.

Over the past few weeks, FAS has reported 1.15 MMT of SRW sold to China since October 9^th, and a abit more than that over that time on smaller sales which underscores the big program they have this year. Until last week’s sales report, China had 639 tmt of unshipped sales on the boods of wheat and had shipped 371 tmt. Last summer, China had big rains on their wheat harvest, which apparently did not materially affect tonnage harvested , but just as apparently downgraded a large portion of that crop’s quality. The Chinese are estimated to be on track to import 14 MMT of wheat this calendar year, well over the TRQ of 9.6 MMT, with substantial purchases affected out of Russia, France, Ukraine, Canada, and Australia. Normally, by this time of year, one usually has a good idea of what the Chinese are going to be aggressive on for their imports. So, it appears they are not aggressive on corn imports, and the private trade is not aggressive on soybean imports, but they are aggressively buying soybeans for the Reserve. We should add, and they are aggressively buying wheat. Now, due to poor quality issues which would make that more feed wheat, could that be the reason for less corn sales?

Egypt’s GASC is in overnight tendering for wheat from January 5^th to February 14^th but there were few offers. It is thought they will work a deal with Russia or eastern Europe.

The Indian Express News had an article today saying that the country was getting ready to import up to 1 MMT of wheat at reduced tariffs from Russia, likely on a government to government deal.

The EU said thus far this season, milling wheat exports of 12.5 MMT compares to 15.3 MMT at this time a year ago.

We hear so much about how grain is moving in the safe corridor or over land across borders but Ukraine said today that it has exported 13.4 MMT of grain this season thus far, versus 18.3 MMT this time a year ago.

Technically, the market is up 7 days in a cyclical count and  pushed the 100 day moving average basis the March Chicago wheat. A 200 day moving average is 671.  Now, over the past four months, we have been commenting about this market forming a saucer bottom.  If, this is the case, then this market could still pull back to support which would test at 597, 591, and possibly 585. We share, the trending averages  have turned long and this is a very good sign.  As we mentioned when November came to an end, the floater via monthly data had turned positive and the TRx is positive. Again, a good sign. December is seasonally a stronger month.

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 639 and 647 with support at 619 and 607.  KC March wheat has resistance at 670 and 678 with support at 653 and 644.

A higher opening  is anticipated this evening as the 60-minute inner-day floater is 20% positive, the timer is 4% positive, the TRx is positive, and the stochastic has turned up but that can be fickle. The inner-day 180 floater is negative and the timer is 57% negative while the stochastic is clipping at 80%.  A stronger market this evening into tomorrow should offer opportunity to take some money off the table for now but would not go short. The market has had an 80 cent rally. We do not think this market is ready to become explosive but a work in progress. Still, wheat goes and take a look at oats. FYI, the inner-day 30 minute is in our favor for a better start or a chance at higher this evening. Another cycle window of time tomorrow and we have rallied 7 days. 

 

LIVESTOCK:     Briefly, we note cattle broke hard into the cycle window timing and reversed today higher. Tomorrow is another timing day and this market could try to be higher but can it hold? The daily indicators question, the 60-minute inner-day shows the floater at 54% and the timer at 15% positive, the TRx is positive and the stochastic is turned higher.  The inner-day 180 floater is 54% positive, the timer is 41% positive and the TRx is positive with room to push. This is all basis the January feeders. Cattle fell counter seasonally into the timing which coincided with a seasonal tendency to be a high. We look for a lower opening in the morning. Then, we will see what this market is made of.

This has been a hard break and the market can try to offer a rally effort at any time but we have been explicit in our technical outlook that any rally  into January 10^th/11^th would offer a high for a break into February.

Weights are expected to be higher again this week which benefits the packer. The evening choice boxed beef was down $1.24 at $293.75 and select down a hard $3.70 at $259.13. Movement continues to be good at 114 boxes and 31 trim.

Cash trade fairly light at 170 to 171 depending on region.

The Mexican government approved imports of Brazilian pork earlier this year while, domestic producers have filed injunctions stopping these imports. US pork is their preference.

Futures fell on a cycle window timing of which tomorrow is another.        

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 12-5-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Soybeans catching buying after a quiet night of trade.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-4-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

December 4, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:

 

CORN:      Corn traded both sides of Friday’s close with soybeans tugging lower and wheat pulling higher.

Exports are fairly light to start the week with Honduras in for corn for February delivery, and Malaysia also inquiring about corn for February.  Export inspections were better than expected at 45.6 million bushels. We need to average 44 million bushels weekly to reach the USDA export forecast.

As for the weather, it is weeks 2 and 3 in the forecast that looks like it will bring good rains to Brazilian corn in the northern areas. Safras says 95% of the corn is planted for the summer crop. The Brazilian FOB export for corn is said to be nearly the same price as the US PNW.

Buenos Aires Grain Exchange called Argentine corn 26% good to excellent which slipped 3% from last week.

French corn is 99% harvested.

October corn grind for ethanol fuel was 461 million bushels versus 430 million bushels in September, and 449 million bushels last year.

Domestic cash basis is said to be steady to firm to start the week while, the Gulf is a mess.

Bottom line, the large spec is heavily short futures and the Index adds up to 171,000 contracts short futures and options versus the record short of 318,000 contracts. When the farmer is a large carrier of cash corn unsold, one wonders why the carry on the board from December to May is so significant? One thought is due to the commercial elevators are fearful of being long the basis if the farmer decides to sell, or they done want to be the guy who buys the cash first. Bottom line, it is the spec short against the long farmer.

For tonight and tomorrow,  March corn has resistance at 488 and 492 with support at 481 and 478.

 

SOYBEANS:      We were not surprised at the decline in soybeans overnight with rains in the forecast now into mid-December, but disappointed that the major trendline from the low of May 31^st and the November low was penetrated. Not friendly but, this market has major cycle window timing and this clearly has been a break into this window of time.  Therefore, we suspect this market will try to offer a bounce but , up tomorrow back down on Wednesday?  The WASDE report will be out on Friday and traders were disappointed in the November report. So, we suspect they are leaning negative on this coming report as well. What would be very concerning would be to breach the October report day low that set this market running higher.  We suspect it will take into January for traders to say, how much or how little the rains were effective in December.  We have noted, this market has too much resistance at the 1350 to 1400 area be it January or March futures.

Soybeans tried early to hold higher on a firmer soymeal market but reports of an eastern belt crush plant fire sending the market higher was unable to hold the market and as soymeal fell, so did soybeans. Funds are said to have sold 10,000 soybeans and 3,000 contracts of soymeal today.

China bought two cargoes of Brazilian soybeans on Friday for February delivery and another one out of the US Gulf for Feb as well.

The FAS reported 183 tmt of soymeal sold to the Philippines this morning and that too, added support for a bit.

As we ended the day, domestic cash soybeans are steady to firmer on the price break, the Gulf is looking for bids, the soymeal is steady to start the week, and soyoil is showing weakness.

Chinese hog margins are poor, Brazilian weather is feared or thought to be improving, and the farmer is a long physically in the US with the specs still net long soybeans and soymeal?

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1323 and 1339 with support at 1297 and 1287.  Cycle window timing is here tomorrow and Wednesday.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures pushed and held higher again today to start the week.  Be careful as this market also has cycle timing due here into Wednesday and has clearly rallied into the cycle. Therefore, we should see a high and it could go like this: higher high tonight and turn lower for tomorrow and then back higher on Wednesday with a correction into the report or, a peak here but note, the indicators that we have been pointing out are friendly and December is usually a positive time for wheat.

FAS reported China bought 440 tmt of US SRW for delivery in 2023/24. Australia continues to deal with drought.  After a pause in the market briefly, we look for wheat to push further. Helping is that Russian wheat has appeared to have found a bottom and this too is offering support. Then there is the heavy short fund position and the smart money is accumulating long length.

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 630 and 640 with support at 604 and 588.  KC March wheat has resistance at 664 and 670 with support at 646 and 634.

 

LIVESTOCK:      Cattle futures fell sharply lower again today with the October and December live cattle pushing at new lows for the move while, feeder cattle are also striking new lows. The trade is moving on fear and to some degree rightfully so as feedlots are full of cattle being pushed to heavier weights.

We noticed today that many various markets moved to increased volatility with gold dropping from new all-time highs of 2152.3 for February futures to a low of 2038.4, a huge range which found support on the 10-day moving average.  Similar to gold, cattle also have major cycle window timing due tomorrow and Wednesday. So, this market is decisively breaking into the timing.

Our indicators basis the daily December live cattle show the floater negative at 22%, the timer is 1% negative, the TRx is negative and the stochastic has been clipping back and forth with the K at 12% and the D at 16%.  With the market down into the cycle, we would look for a low to be made tomorrow and a turn higher but just know this market may chop in here on the two days. Normally, the 5^th of December to the 8^th tends to strike high and markets return south into Christmas. The next major cycle window of timing is due December 13^th.  The inner-day 180 chart shows the market pushing into a small Elliot wave 5 and two larger 5s. However, the indicators are askewed as to the timer and floater with the TRx negative.  Look for the market to start lower tomorrow before any rally effort.

Adding to our concern for cattle is the daily January feeder chart (could be similar in the March) where the floater is 48% negative, the timer is 84% negative, the TRx is negative and the stochastic has been chopping at a low level and is 22% on the D and 17% on the K.  We focus on our timer and it is not pretty.

When we turn our attention to the monthly chart, there is a support line from the high of November 2017 through the high of February 2022 and the high of August 2022 and extended which comes in at 200 – 199.55 area. January feeders exceeded the 20-month moving average today.  The 200 level could become psychological support. We will see. Note, the 10-quarter moving average comes in at the same area. Note, today’s lows also came to a .38% retracement from the bottom of April 2020 to the top in September 2023.

Our quarterly indicators that we so respect shows the floater at 94% negative, the timer remains 99% positive, the TRx is just turning negative, and the stochastic K and D are joined at 81% heading down.  Since, our timer has yet to turn positive and this market has taken a hard dive this quarter, abnormally large, it is not out of the question to see some reprieve in this market that could surprise but just note, when the timer confirms a turn south it will be very negative and take quarters to clean up. Overall, we think cattle are weak into February before finding a low. However, we do not have any dates for that just yet. FYI, a 50% correction would be 190.25.

Some explain this harsh sell-off with speculation that those short puts are selling futures to offset their position, and that seems reasonable. With option volatility until recently, some may have sold out-of-the-money puts assuming the trade would offer low risk. With those puts now in the money, the financial pressure on those positions is immense.

Note, Livestock Risk Protection program is offered through the USDA and is or was designed to insure against a decline in livestock market prices. Some think the increased use of LRP has added an unexpected bearish impact on both futures and option in cattle.  This may be just speculation but not sure.

Managed funds have reduced net long positions from 119,000 to 36,000 contracts since the last week of September into last week’s Commitment of Traders report. FYI, we read that other major bottoms in cattle futures were made with a lower net long position than 36,000  with the most recent in 2019 and 2020.

Fundamentally, it is cattle imports from Mexico, Canada, and other origins of dairy cattle than have added to weight this market down with numbers on top of heavier carcass weights.

Bottom line, with the market breaking hard into this cycle window of time, we would look for a low but stops below are needed in case the market bounces and then takes more off the table. Still, it is hard to have stops in feeders as God only knows where the fills would be.

Last year, packers cut hours the last three weeks of the year aggressively. With decent numbers available, will the packer do so again? Should they do so, it will push a decent number of cattle forward into 2024. Not a friendly fundamental.

In closing, the afternoon choice cutout was down $2.74 at $294.72 with select down $2.66 at $262.83.  Movement was decent at 106 boxes.

 

 

DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 12-4-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Soybean traders watching the extended forecast with increased chances of rain for center and northern Brazil.

Futures Cash Info Weekend Commentary for 12-2-2023.mp3

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

December 2, 2023

 

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :   Corn sales recommendations for 2022/23 crop are as follows:

4-5-22   15% sold at 708 basis December futures.

4-18-22  15% sold at 770 basis September futures.  (we recommended basing the sales on December futures when September hit that price level and suggested hedge to arrive leaving basis open.

7-28-22    sold 30% at 638 and 15% at 650 basis December futures. (30% sold on 8-12 and 15% sold at 650 on 8-23)

6-9-2023   Sell 10% 2022/23 corn at 605 basis July futures – this is a new recommendation. If filled, this would bring cash sales to 85% complete. (Done)

6-16-2023   Recommend finishing up cash sales of old crop corn. Basis is weakening as the futures rally.

Total sales at 85% for 2022/23. (sales should be complete to 100%)(keep in mind, if making cash sales when recommending sales would have offered much more for inverted or premium basis)

6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

12-2-2023     We recommend making 15% cash sales when March futures reaches 493.

Soybeans:   Soybean sales recommendations for 2022/23 crop are as follows:

6-2-22   20% sold at 1515-1516

7-29-22   30% sold 1489

11-1-2022:     We suggest making another 15% cash sales at 1448 basis January futures. DONE (now old crop) Total thus far is 65% sold.

12-1-2022:     We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420.  This will be the first start to 2023 marketing suggestions. DONE  (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

3-7-2023:     We suggest making cash sales of 15% for old crop soybeans on Wednesday. You can pick the price but we do anticipate a chance higher. (today’s range 1531 – 1513)

Old crop soybeans are 80% sold 2022/23.  We recommend moving cash sales of old crop on Tuesday if nothing got done today on Friday, June 16th.  This should bring cash sales to 100% complete.

**Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

Wheat:

 

 

WEATHER:      South America 30- And 90-Day Outlooks Offer Little Change 1 By Drew Lerner Kansas City, December 1 (World Weather Inc.) – Today’s 30- and 90-day outlooks for South America have not offered any serious changes to the general theme of weather. El Nino continues to have control over the continent with a little influence from both the lunar cycle and the lingering effects of the Hunga Tonga Volcano. No serious changes should be expected. Monsoon flow in Brazil “may” evolve for a brief period during the summer, but another few weeks of lighter and more sporadic than usual rainfall is expected in center west and especially northeastern Brazil first while a wet bias prevails in southern Brazil, Paraguay and eastern Argentina. World Weather, Inc. has seen no sign of a “normal” monsoon pattern evolving in Brazil during the next two weeks and feels relatively confident that changes will not occur very greatly in the second half of the month either. That will result in airmass thunderstorms popping up occasionally underneath a mid-level high pressure center aloft that will suppress convection. These conditions will place a limit on rainfall, although showers and thunderstorms will still evolve. What Brazil needs most is a steady flux of tropical or subtropical moisture into center west, center south and northeastern crops areas – which normally occurs from the monsoon flow. Instead, atmospheric moisture will remain limited. There will be infrequent troughs of low pressure passing from south to north into central Brazil, but at this time of year those troughs have a tough time getting very far to the north and for that reason northeastern Brazil is likely to remain one of the driest and warmest parts of South America over the next 30- and 90-day periods.

 Classic El Nino conditions are likely, though, and those will provide plenty of rainfall in eastern Argentina, Uruguay, southern Paraguay and southern Brazil. The wetter than usual bias in those areas will prevail throughout December and probably for a little while into January as well.   World Weather, Inc. believes there is potential for better rainfall a part of center west and center south Brazil in January and February as El Nino begins a steady weakening trend. That is the earliest that some change in weather may evolve. In the meantime, Argentina and Brazil will see near to above normal temperatures with the wetter bias prevailing in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and eastern Argentina.

 

CORN:     With the help of unwinding of long soybean and short corn spreads along with stronger wheat futures, corn pulled off a higher day but was no runaway.

The US Grains Council called the corn crop 88% is grading #1, with 97% graded at least #2. Average test weightfor the crop was called 58.4 pounds per bushel which compares to last year at 58.5 lbs. per bushel. Broken corn and FM were averaging 0.5% versus 0.9% last year with average at 0.8%. So, overall, a good quality crop.

The forecast calls for showers in the drier areas other than the northeastern portion of Brazil which is forecast to remain dry.

StoneX predicts a Brazilian corn crop of 123.8 MMT, down from their former estimate of 125.7 MMT. The summer crop is predicted at 26.5 MMT and the safrinha at 97.3 MMT.

The Brazilian government said November exports of 7.4 MMT compares to 5.9 MMT last year for the same month.

Argentina appears to be on pace with planting ahead of last year at 32% versus 25% last year per the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

US domestic corn basis closed the week steady with the Gulf mixed.

The Argentine export registrations has some traders/analysts perplexed given the farmer has shut his bin doors and not selling anything until Milei takes office on December 10^th. The Argentine farmers anticipate the peso will be fixed to the dollar and they do not want anymore pesos. Exporters have to prepay 90% of the export tax within 5 days of registering exports, which is done at the official rate. Note, the Argentine government extended corn export licenses from the last crop due to drought and they have not done that for soybeans and wheat. Likewise, the Brazilian farmer is said to not be making cash sales either. Exporters are short the FOB and are said they were seen paying an equivalent of 150 over the March to cover FOB’s for December. FOB means freight on board.

We look for corn to try and firm further this week but the March contract has resistance against the 493 area.  

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans saw liquidation of long soybeans and short corn spreads. Funds liquidated an estimated 6,000 contracts of soybeans, 5,000 contracts of soymeal, and 2,000 contracts of soyoil.

Chinese buying slowed as we came to the end of the week, buying one cargo of US soybeans out of the PNW for December delivery, and Sinograin was bidding again overnight for soybeans, but the offers were said to be too high, and ocean freight has seen an uptick. On top of that, the Panama Canal remains a mess with vessels waiting 28 days to get through. Other demand is slow, but it seems to be all about Chinese buying to move the markets. Chinese crushers are having difficulty getting GMO import certification from the CIQ.

The weather forecast for Brazil remains pretty much the same with chances of rain this weekend through next Tuesday, but thus far, rains have disappointed. Still, the futures slipped on the “just in case” concern.  1350 to 1400 remains tough resistance for this market. The GFS model run agrees with the European model that rain is in the forecast for Mato Grosso but the GFS is not as wet. However, both models are turning wetter for week’s three and four for northern Brazil, and it is not too late to prop up crop potential.

CONAB which is similar to our USDA, will be out December 7^th with a new update on the crops which is a day before WASDE. Friday morning, StoneX came out with their fresh crop estimate, predicting the soybean crop was at 161.9 which compares to their former estimate of 165 MMT. In our opinion, it will take a number under 154 MMT to really catch the trade’s attention.

Domestic basis in the US ended the week steady to firm, the river is weaker, Brazilian basis has softened, and the soymeal basis slipped to close out the week while, soyoil basis held nominally steady.

Soybeans closed the week lower, and this suggests come Sunday night the market should start weaker. Keep in mind, soybeans have major cycle window timing due on Tuesday, the 5^th and Wednesday the 6^th. There is another cycle due on the 13^th.  Keep in mind, the low for January soybeans in November was 1304.75. The market did close on weekly support but this market is becoming very compressed.

The technical shows the monthly January (March same) floater is positive at 38% while the timer confirmed a positive turn on Thursday to end November. It is 4% positive.

Beware, years of a “4” do not tend to be vibrant years overall. We will have more on that in Tuesday’s commentary. This market does not appear that it wants to take out the high of July which was 1441 basis the January contract but the high for the year is 1541.75 which was the January contract of 2023.

      

WHEAT:     March wheat closed the month of November higher following a lower low. The market is viewed that it should take out last month’s high of 622. There is a 200-month moving average and a 10-month moving average conjoined at 641 which will be the first major resistance on the rally. The floater is 4% positive while the timer remains 1% negative and the monthly TRx is positive with lots of room to push. The monthly stochastic %K is 8% and the %D is 10%. So, the stochastic is working its way to trying to turn higher.

France’s Dunkirk port is to start loading 250 tmt of wheat for China this month.

French AgriMer called its winter wheat 82% sown versus 99% this time last year with the crop rated 80% good to excellent, down 3% from the week before.

Argentine wheat is 36% harvested versus last year’s pace of 23%.

US domestic cash is firmer on the spring wheat since we are competitive with Canada for export with deliverable stocks are in decline, and HRW is firming trying to source Chinese business and SRW is firmer on the river for the same reason.

Taiwan’s FMA bought 109,325 tmt of US milling wheat for January – February shipment.

The prospective longs are noting the massive large spec short positions in wheat futures. There is less northern America planted area and a smaller southern hemisphere crop getting harvested while, Russian wheat prices have refused to break but the bears point to the trend and carrying charge markets in their favor. We are siding with the long side for now.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Cattle futures ended the week in volatile fashion. The average weights are 936 pounds. This with more numbers on feed is weighing on the cash market and should continue to do so with (we think) futures will try to push over cash this month. So, we recommend producers getting your cattle sold. The late wire showed cash in Iowa trading at 174 on 3,031 head, Nebraska at 174 and 273 dressed but trade in Kansas was light from 173 to 174.

Basis the April live cattle daily chart, the floater is 56% positive, the timer is 24% positive, and the TRx is negative. Stochastics continue to chop sideways. The market is forming a large Elliot wave 3 for support. Technically, we share the April weekly chart shows the floater 3% and the timer 5% both negative with support in the 165 to 166 area. The weekly April continuous TRz is absolutely buried but we note in April 2020, the TRx was much worse. The weekly stochastic is at 8% on the K and 34% on the D. This appears there is more work to do.

OK, the monthly continuous April cattle reached a 20-month moving average last week and this should offer some support but the indicators show the floater at 48% negative, the timer at 77% negative, and the TRx negative with room to push. The stochastic is 59% on the K and 82% on the D. 

This indicates to us that this market still has work to do and rallies may be vulnerable until February. There is major cycle window timing due on next Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audi for 12-1-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Some did not receive my first audio send, so resending.

China buys 132 tmt of US soybeans for 2023/24 and 198 tmt to unknown destinations (China?).

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 12-1-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Grains start the month in red with rains in the forecast for northern areas of Brazil. Both the GFS and European models agree but, disagree in measurable amounts.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-30-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 30, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:

 

CORN:     Basis the December corn contract, the market held the 448 support shelf and rallied 11 cents today with other contracts turning nicely higher after early weakness ran out of sellers. Offering support was shockingly high export sales of 1.928 MMT or 75.9 million bushels which came sharply higher than the highest guess of 1.2 MMT and is a marketing year high. This also surprised as the USDA has been very limited in announcing corn sales recently. There were 727 tmt of corn to unknown destinations this morning in the weekly sales breakdown. Both Japan and Mexico were strong destinations and China took 131 tmt.

The monthly corn basis March futures shows the floater and timer still negative at 1% with the TRx positive and the stochastic %K at 6% and the %D at 16%. Corn made a lower monthly low and closed the month lower.

Basis the March monthly chart, there is support at 457.5 and in time, 432. However, if wheat starts to perform, and it should push as the spreads got too narrow between corn and wheat, but wheat strength may offer support to the corn market.

Funds are estimated to have been buyers of 6,000 contracts today.

Mexico is in for corn for April, Egypt is in for corn for February, and Malaysia is in for corn for February delivery. Argentina registered another 1.102 MMT of corn for export on Wednesday which now brings the total to 2 MMT registered since November 21^st.

Mato Grosso is forecast to be wetter over the coming week and the European model turned drier in the 11-15 day run.

Brazilian ag consultancy Patria Agronegocios called the country’s corn crop at 112.5 MMT versus 131.4 MMT for the old crop, and called the safrinha portion 82.5 MMT versus 100.3 MMT for the old crop.

Russian IKAR  estimated next year’s total Russian grain crop 145 MMT. 

USDA Ag Secretary, Tom Vilsack said he sees Chinese purchases of US corn rising again, but is working to diversify destinations, and prevent over-dependence on any one destination. He said he is confident the Treasury Department will release guidelines for ethanol subsidies for aviation fuel by the end of the year.

With open interest down 10,000 contracts basis December on Wednesday’s close and down 70,000 in total on the day, selling pressure came off the market.

Next week we will have the WASDE Supply and Demand numbers which are not expected to give way to anything bearish. Some will say the USDA will reduce exports but last month the export number was increased, so we doubt seriously USDA turns-about-face and reduces the number for exports.

If there are any changes, we would expect a reduction in Brazilian corn production and the November estimate by WASDE was 129 MMT but with Patria Agronegocios sharply less and no private estimates over 120 MMT, we think WASDE will reduce that number to 125 MMT as it is early when considering changes in safrinha. However, any reductions should go straight to the world ending stocks. That leaves us to wonder about Argentina since that is set at 55 MMT by WASDE and it may seem too soon to push that number higher.

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 487 and 491 with support at 477 and 471.

 

SOYBEANS:      Private exporters reported the sale of 134 tmt of soybeans to China this morning. Still, soybeans quietly traded both sides of Wednesday’s close while spread unwinding occurred with short corn and long soybeans. Adding to the weakness was no new US cargoes of soybeans sold to China rumored today. China did buy two Brazilian cargoes overnight for December shipment.

India bought 3 cargoes of palm olein for January.  Japan is in for soybeans for delivery in January.

Similar to corn export sales being surprisingly strong, soybeans were as well at 1.895 MMT or 69.6 million bushels and beat the highest guess of 1.5 MMT but still slipped below the past 4-week average of 71.6 million bushels. China took 892 tmt of which some of that was switched from unknown destinations. To make the current USDA export forecast, we need to weekly sell 475 tmt to the end of the season.

Brazilian ag consultancy Patria Agronegocios forecasts this year’s soybean crop at 150.7 MMT which is down modestly from last year’s production of 154.1 MMT. This also compares to the latest USDA forecast of 163 MMT which is up slightly from their former estimate of 158 MMT for last year’s crop.

The afternoon GFS weather run turned wetter for Mato Grosso over the coming week  but the European model turned drier in the 11 to 15 day run.

Argentina is expected to catch rain next week with the crop looking good.

China’s CNGOIC called the past week’s crush 2.02 MMT, up 170 tmt on the week. Soybean stocks at the ports are estimated at 4.88 MMT which is up 110 tmt from the latest report.

China is trying to get tougher on inspections of GMO soybeans again, but most of the private trade does not think this will be much of a problem.

Technically,  soybeans ended the month higher and enjoyed an inside trading range day.  The 50-day moving average of support is 1326 and the 20-day moving average is at 1356 which will be resistance.  Next week on Thursday, we will have the WASDE report but there should not be any changes in US production. They are keeping the suspense for January in the Final production report. This coming report is expected to be a non-event.

The monthly indicators for soybeans show the floater at 31% positive, the timer is 3% positive and that is a hallelujah!  This implies that breaks should find support and the market should try to push. Still, the 20 month moving average has stalled us and stands at 1383.75 for now. The TRx is positive and the monthly trend indicators remains negative but are very close for turning. Color us positive and use the dips for buying.

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1350 and 1356 with support at 1338 and 1332.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures ended the week higher and closed near the session highs. There are expectations for Russia’s 2024/25 wheat crop to come in strong per ag consultancy IKAR forecasting next year’s crop around 92 MMT which would be up slightly from this year’s USDA estimate of 90 MMT and would match the record crop of 2021/22 of 92 MMT.  IKAR looks for wheat  exports next year to be strong at 48 MMT which is 2 MMT less than the USDA forecast for this year at 50 MMT.

Australian New South Wales suffered heavy rains recently and talk is indicating that an additional 1 MMT of this year’s crop may be feed quality instead of milling grade quality. At this time, there is not much in outright crop loss estimates out. The USDA currently stands at 24.5 MMT for Australian wheat production. That is substantially less than last year’s production of 39.7 MMT with planted area reduced and drought conditions returning after several years of good conditions.

Wheat deliveries were heavy for Chicago wheat at 1,347 contracts with the last trade date of 11/29/2023. KC wheat deliveries were 100 contracts with dates up through November 24^th and Minneapolis wheat had 53 contracts delivered with a last trade date of November 27^th.

Hip hip hurrah! The monthly floater on March Chicago wheat is indicating a positive turn at 2% but the timer remains negative at 1%. The TRx is just turning positive and we think wheat may have struck a bottom on a huge saucer bottom. Note, March Chicago wheat also made a lower low and closed the month higher! This portends that the market should take out this month’s high of 622. The 200-month moving average is 641 and the 10-month moving average is 653. One step-at-a-time but setting up in the right direction.

The March KC daily wheat shows the floater positive at 39%, the timer positive at 20% and the TRx positive with resistance a touch higher. The contract closed over the 20-day moving average today and that hasn’t happened since September 15^th. A large Elliot wave 4 rests at 669.75.

Similar to the Chicago contract, the March monthly continuous KC floater turned positive and is at 2% while the timer remains 1% negative and the TRx is negative but very overdone. The stochastic indicates interest in turning higher so, patience.

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 604 and 610 with support at 587 and 576.  KC March wheat has resistance at 650 and 656 with support at 633 and 622.       

 

LIVESTOCK:    We will discuss cattle in our morning audio.          

 

DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 11-30-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Grains mixed but trade volume is light.  Soybeans should confirm today a full turn in the monthly indicators that we respect.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-29-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 29, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:

 

CORN:     December corn finally pushed the 448 support level and for now, held. Inner-day indicators were very overdone to the downside and futures rallied to show it is capable of closing higher. Wheat helped add to the cause with a strong day.

Funds ended the day flat.

As for exports, South Korea’s KFA Incheon bought 65 tmt of corn for February and March, Japan is looking for corn for April, Egypt is nosing around for corn for February with no viable means of paying for it (?) and Argentina registered 110 tmt of corn for export yesterday.  Export sales on Thursday are estimated at 600 tmt.

The Chinese hog/corn ratio is estimated at 6:1, which is below breakeven but, should we be surprised?

An article today said that Ukrainian domestic corn prices are moving higher due to logistics from this week’s snow storm and firm demand which we assume may be Chinese.

Today’s EIA ethanol production rate was posted at 1.011 million barrels per day which was down 12,000 from last week’s report, leaving stocks at 21.4 million barrels, down 300,000 on the week.

Bottom line, there is a record large cash position long by the farmer which may be a bearish cloud over this market.  Our monthly indicators remain in a mode of just looking for a turn higher and confirmation to finally give this market something to run on to the upside as it doesn’t need much on the downside. As for Brazilian weather, the first crop of corn is the smaller amount produced and it is the safrinha that traders are interested in since that second crop is more exported. That means there is still time for this market to arrive at the spectrum of full concern.

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 478 and 481 with support at 471 and 467.

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans enjoyed a quiet trading session closing fractionally higher. Chinese buying held the market in check albeit the buying was not as aggressive today as earlier this week. China bought one cargo of US soybeans out of the PNW for January and one cargo for February out of the Gulf. They also bought two cargoes of Brazilian soybeans for February.

South Korean Agro-Fisheries is in December 5^th for 20 tmt of non-GMO soybeans.

Export sales tomorrow are estimated to be 1.3 MMT of soybeans, 200 tmt of soymeal, and nothing on soyoil.

Traders are said to have sold 3,000 soymeal contracts today and in soybean options, 500 $14 calls were sold.  In soymeal, 2,500 of the January 440 puts were sold covered, 1,000 of the March 440 calls were sold, and 1,000 of the January 450 calls were sold.

Clearly, this market is totally focused on weather in Brazil and Argentina but, especially on Brazil. While the central areas of the country caught some light showers overnight, the forecast shows the GFS continuing to push rains for Mato Grosso back until the middle of next week, but the European model run remains quite wet. The 6-15 day runs the past few days have increasingly turned dry for northern Brazil soybean areas.

IMEA estimates that 4% of Mato Grosso soybeans will be replanted due to drought.

The European Union crop monitor indicates wet weather in the west and dry conditions in the southeast of Europe will deal winter rapeseed planting and could hurt initial growth of plants.

Vietnam said it will reestablish import taxes on soymeal.

Indonesian biofuels chamber APROBI called the industry capacity 17 million liters, with consumption this year at 13 million liters and suggested biodiesel will consume 22% of Indonesia’s palm oil this year. That compares to 17% in 2022.

The Argentine farmer remains  an avid holder of soybeans, the crushers don’t have enough of a margin to import soybeans in size, the domestic soymeal basis in the US hasn’t changed much, and the world and domestic consumer is still standing with very little coverage.  December deliveries are due on Friday with first notice day due tomorrow for soymeal and the lead contract of open interest was huge which necessitated speculative long liquidation. This slowed today’s market.

Warren Buffet once said, “when everyone is yelling, you should be selling, when everyone is crying, you should be buying…” Well, that hasn’t worked well for wheat and we guess it did take charge of the cattle.

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1354 and 1360 with support at 1339 and 1330.             

 

WHEAT:      Wheat futures ran hard again today and KC March wheat is pushing at the 20-day moving average. Note, the 20-day moving average has held this market in check since late July.

The daily indicators basis March KC are as follows: the floater is 23% positive, the timer is 17% negative, and the TRx is positive with room to push.  The stochastic is turned higher but this indicator has chopped sideways since late August so we will see if it is for real this time. As we move into December, wheat tends to firm.

We also share that the daily floater on Chicago March wheat is 17% positive, the timer is 3% positive. Here again, the market closed against the 20-day moving average and the 40 and 50 day moving average resistance is 597.  It is possible that the market is still forming the bottom of a huge saucer.  Patience isn’t a virtue for me.   

More importantly, the market may still be eying the huge short position in all three US wheat contracts and this is helping to drive the market on short covering going into first notice day. The KC December wheat net short by large specs of 38,000 and adding in the Index position it takes this to 51,000 contract which is closer to the previous record short position of 55,000 contracts.

We add, China has been inquiring on HRW this week and some business is rumored to have been done to other destinations and then, Matif has rallied along with Russian cahs prices that never followed the futures down on the last move. Stir in some year- end profit taking and we may have reasons to expect more? Still, we have those carrying charges to work through.

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat resistance is 592 and 597 with support at 576 and 565. KC March wheat resistance is 642 and 649 with support at 621 and 607.

 

LIVESTOCK:     Live cattle and feeders slowed down their volatility today and while closing higher, the market was much more subdued due to extended limits today. We share, a seasonal buy via Moore Research is on April live cattle to buy on December 9^th and hold until January 2^nd. Over the past 15 years this has had a trade average profit of $1,564. That said, This year may put that to a test? Seasonal trades are nice but do not offer guarantees of future results. Seasonal behavior is just a view of how the market has tended to respond in the past at times throughout the year.

Packers have been light buyers of cattle this week and need more. However, at time of writing, we have not heard of very much trade. The cash continues to lead this market and Friday is option expiration with Monday as first notice day. Deliveries should be non-existent. 

The afternoon cutout showed choice up $1.14 at $297.03 and select down $2.26 at $264.09. Movement was decent at 120 boxes and 18 trim.

The next cycle windows for timing on cattle is December 5^th and 6^th with the 13^th as well.

The futures fell too hard too fast and this market is due to catch its breath but a slip on January feeders towards the 203-207 area would not surprise either. Keep an open mind.  A rally into the cycle window timing would offer selling but a break into the windows of time would offer a buyer’s opportunity and options might work.       

 

DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 11-29-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Warming temps in the Midwest and sunny is welcomed but in northern Brazil, temps remain in the upper 90s and lower 100s with a chance of rain this weekend but will it measure to much?

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-28-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 28, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:     We share an update from our South American weather source:

North America / USA 'Big Picture' Weather Overview

November 27 - December 16, 2023

 

Last cold pulse then normalizing quickly early Dec followed by 12d of milder but changeable flow as the Purple Wave expands not just through multiple threads in N America but globally too with major polar air entry through AK into NW Canada Dec 3-9 as the Siberian Pulse Ext breaks through & eliminates positive-ion flow making 2H Dec bitter cold, windy & stormy in the USA.

____________________ 

Important Top-10 Weather Stories, Themes & Bullets On Our Mind

1. Amazzzing ... the Siberian Pulse is breaking-up the stronghold of positive ions through AK:  Micro-magnetic modeling was correct despite the incredible resistance of that positive-ion field.
2. Massive amounts of polar air are coming from Siberia into NW Canada Dec 3-9:  This is already showing-up on the forecast maps with a major increase in cold developing over AK in Wk#2.
3. However, Market focus will be the next longer milder pattern over the USA during Dec 2-13:  The back-end of the 15d forecast will be mainly weather bearish for most of the upcoming week.
4. North Pacific oceanic heat is waning quickly as the Purple Wave takes-over:  This process will assist the transfer of cold from east Russia into North America but not into the US until 12/17.
5. An expanding Purple Wave is coming again and it's indicating bigger changes into winter:  Both big coldwaves far south, sudden turns to milder, and contra-Jetstream circulation patterns.
6. A triple-dose polar dive is algorithmically modeled for Dec 17-23, Dec 25-29 & Jan 2-7:  Three pulsations could change by a few days, but the majority of mid-Dec to early Jan is likely colder,
7. Once Siberian air collects over North Canada it will then activate the original Gulf Channel to hurl-down the cold into the USA on NW flow:  The 100-Days sequence shows this hitting E & S.
8. Some of the Arctic Pulse will renew the Siberian Pulse:  As positive ions decrease over Russia, a tunnel of negative ions from Europe's cold will shoot E'ward, supporting the Siberian Pulse.
9. The Late-Week Update will likely show blue-shade negative ions starting to appear over Alaska:  This needs to be our next confirmation in the development of the polar air drop in December.
10. EU cold & snow is from a self-renewing arctic airmass into at least 2 different periods in December:  Normal cold from Russia is drier but we'll see more snow which will replicate more cold.

 

CORN:      Brazil’s first corn crop is estimated to be 55% planted versus 69% this time a year ago. Bahia and Goias remain behind due to dry conditions.

Corn futures remained weaker today and our indicators are implying caution for now. Conversely, we suspect spreads between short wheat and long corn were being unwound today.

Technically,  March corn daily floater is 73% negative, the timer is 86% negative, and the TRx is negative. We do note, the prices are pushing a small Elliot wave 5 and two large 5s.

The inner-day 60 minute floater is offering caution  at 62% negative and more so on the timer at 99% positive. Very overdone?

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 477 and 480 with support at 471 and 468.  There is chart support via the December contract at 448.

 

SOYBEANS:     Private exporters reported the sale of 123,000 mt of US soybeans to unknown destinations for 2023/24 marketing year. This adds to confidence that the talk of China buying 3 to 5 cargoes of US soybeans may be true. It appears lately that on hard down days, China is in buying or inquiring.

Oil World has reduced their estimate of Brazilian production to 152 MMT which is down 11 MMT from their former ideas.

The drought across northern Brazil is worsening with 13.8% of the crop in the flowering stag, and 3.1% of the crop in pod setting stage. Temperatures continue to run above normal in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso du Sol, Goias, and Bahia. On the flipside, producers in the southern regions continue to deal with too much rainfall and soggy soils but Rio Grande du Sol has enjoyed about 4 days of rain free weather. In this state, 37% of the soybean crop is planted which compares to 65% a year ago.

Other than talk of Chinese inquiring for soybeans today and rumors of buying on Monday into today, along with continued forecast of hot dry weather and disappointing rains in the center and northern regions of Brazil, news is pretty quiet. However, that did not hold soybeans back and we noted the indicators on March soybeans monthly “continuous” chart shows the floater which turned at the end of July and the TRx which turned at the end of June, is indicating a positive turn at 2% to be confirmed on Thursday’s close for the month of November. This is a positive indication that soybeans should have renewed enthusiasm to the upside and we also note, the trending averages are turning long on the weekly March continuous chart. The weekly floater is 31% positive, the timer is 14% negative but has lost pretty much of its negative momentum. March soybeans closed at the 20-day moving average.  Color us leaning positive with need to see confirmation on Thursday. Look for any break Thursday to find support??

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1355 and 1366 with support at 1335 and 1326.

 

WHEAT:     It appears the wheat caught fire today as shorts started covering.  Seasonally, wheat tends to rally in December.

Not much to fundamentally say, but we do tend to look for the war between Ukraine and Russia to become more heated as Ukraine fights back with F16s.  There is one note that we wonder about…..we read that Russia stole wheat from Ukraine in the past season and no surprise to us as we wondered how they would have produced such a huge record crop. In the meantime, analysis called for Ukrainian wheat production to be on par with previous years? Therefore, is it possible that global stats are wrong and counting some Ukrainian production more than once? We do not know but it would not surprise.

Per the daily March Chicago wheat chart, the floater is 11% negative, the timer is 2% negative, and the TRx is neutral which should turn positive. The market has pushed at a cluster of 3 large Elliot wave 5s.

In this morning’s comment I mentioned that the large saucer bottom appeared to be breached but relooking at it today, I have to say there remains a possible continuation of this saucer. If so, we would anticipate the market should start ebbing higher but no runaway for now.

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 579 and 585 with support at 562 and 551.  KC March wheat has resistance at 627 and 634 with support at 603 and 586. For now, the trending averages are negative but the market seems ready for a turn positive on those. When that occurs, it should be golden?

 

LIVESTOCK:     Volatility on steroids would describe the cattle futures.  Some cash traders now think the market has entered a low. After a hard break such as the feeder cattle have seen, this could be possible (for now). As we mentioned in our commentary on Monday evening, this market could do most anything and a rally effort is not out of the question but, instilling the need to have price flooring on a corrective rally is prudent.

January feeders closed or settled limit up of 825 points which rebounded better than the break on Monday. Perhaps, it took the report of LRP insurance concerns and selling of cattle futures for protection that helped to strike a bottom today? Regardless, the closure of 825 points higher at limit up for January feeders will push trading limits on Wednesday of 1225 points on feeders and 1000 on fats. Along with the expanded limits on Wednesday will be higher margins.

Packer margins are now thought to be profitable coming into today’s session with a profitable crush.

Bottom line, have cattle bottomed out? Technically, for now yes, but we note our indicators are on quarterly data and a corrective rally reprieve is to be expected. That said, it will take a move over 24680 to start to build confidence that there may be more to this market. Cheap corn at 3 year lows and cash cattle holding fairly well in the face of the futures demise.  We still are very suspicious of this market and continue to be steadfast in our indicators as we move through December into January.

The next major cycle window of time is due December 5^th and 6^th and again on the 13^th of which these dates also fit the seasonal behavior. Stay tune and we did not hear of any cash trade at time of writing.  

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 11-28-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Turnaround Tuesday pushes soybeans higher as we watch open interest decline going into first notice day.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-27-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 27, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

 WEATHER:

 

CORN:     Lacking much in the way of news, traders looking ahead to the first notice day of delivery on Thursday, November 30^th are liquidating long positions. Wheat futures could not find a positive fundamental anywhere and this market continues to slip south which offers corn little hope for better prices in the near term.

In the past, when US farmers and Brazilian farmers were holding much of the grain unsold simultaneously, prices tended to slip south or move into sideways markets. Prompting this attitude is the weather which was believed to be creating crops of less yield but surprisingly, harvest proved the belief wrong and yields (in most cases) turned out better than expected.  Now, we have the Brazilian farmer holding on tightly to supplies with concerns that he may not get corn planted on the backside of soybeans like normal. US farmers are also caught up in Brazil’s weather  and that comes as no surprise. We cannot emphasize enough that it is going to take some time before the trade may decide to fully buy long on Brazil’s lack of corn acres or sub-par yields.

We are about to enter the holiday markets which can be fickle on lighter trade volume but also can deteriorate further on lack of buying. The next area of support on December corn is 448.  The bears are talking 391 to 400. 

Admittedly, we have recommended re-owning corn back in the May options via the calls and three way reversals.  Keep in mind, in carrying charge markets, as the lead contract expires, the new lead contract tries at some point to align with the expiration price. Interest rates are on most farmers’ minds as to sell now and stop interest or hold and store. We suggest if holding, one should floor the market with puts and if making cash sales, we suggest the option reversal of buying the May 500 calls and selling the May 470 calls and selling the May 560 calls. Those carry a margin of $785.

Bottom line, we remind the monthly indicators on corn contracts of March and May remain at 1% negative for both the floater and timer with the TRx neutral which means a turn higher. The stochastic is also nearing a space of potential turn higher but we have to see some confidence and that has yet to occur. For now, we are sidelined and not selling this market short unless one wants to pick on day trading. Therefore, we look at this market and are waiting as the trending averages are close to turning long but not confirmed as yet.

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 483 and 489 with support at 471 and 465.  For this week, resistance is 501 and 508 with support at 481 and 468.

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans were more subdued today as selling pressured corn and wheat futures lower.  Soy products were weaker as well, and this added to keeping the soybean market at bay.  Obviously, China believes the break in prices is a good opportunity as the country is rumored to have bought 2 cargoes for February shipment and a third cargo from the PNW for March. They also bought two cargoes of soybeans out of Canada late last week.

Fresh news is absent from this market and rains over the holiday weekend were disappointing but the European model suggests good rains will be coming while, the GFS disagrees. We suspect the trade is focusing on the European forecast which implies better potential rains come next week. For now, the market acts as though it is not concerned about the Brazilian soy crop. The forecast has only scattered showers for Mato Grosso this week and increasing next week on chances of good rains for center and southern areas this week.  This far, this year, the weather for Brazil has been decisively un-El-Nino like behavior.

Safras calls Brazil’s soybean crop 161.4 MMT versus their previous estimate of 163.3 MMT.  It is estimated that 74 to 75% of the crop is planted depending on which service one reads and compares to last year’s pace at 88%. IMEA says Mato Grosso is 98% planted.

Brazilian FOB export for nearby is said to be 15 cents more expensive than US Gulf on quotes out of Santos, but 30 cents cheaper than US at Paranagua.

The next major cycle windows are December 5^th and 6^th and then, the 13^th.

Export inspections were quite good today at 52.9 million bushels and to meet the USDA export forecast, we need to average nearly 28 million bushels weekly to the end of the crop year.

Canada crushed 974 tmt of canola in October which makes their August –October crush 2.7 MMT, which compares to last year at 2.3 MMT.

To start the week, domestic US soybean basis levels are steady, the Gulf is firmer, soymeal is steady, and soyoil is nominal at best?

Bottom line, we think January soybeans will test the major trend line of support beneath and in doing so, test the close at the end of October which was 1311.5.  This is a major trend line from the May 31^st lows.

We also share a small head and shoulders top formation is apparent and the neckline is 1320 basis the January contract. Breaching this projects a move to the lower channel line of support. Take a look at the chart shared below:

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1338 and 1346 with support at 1322 and 1314. For the week ahead, support is 1313 and 1289 with resistance at 1375 and 1413.

 

WHEAT:     Wheat futures got smoked again today. Exports are dismal and Russia is dropping export taxes for November 30^th through December 5^th. 

This market is looking at first notice day on Thursday and we suspect longs are finding the door and either getting out or rolling positions which we believe is the later. That said, similar to corn, the monthly floater and timer is sitting at 1% negative and the TRx is still negative.  Hard to be a raging bear when the indicators are sitting at 1% and yes, they have yet to turn positive but this is monthly timing and we wait.

There was a news article today saying China has delayed several cargoes of French wheat from December to March, probably due to Australian arrivals crowding out the French wheat?  It is said that Australian wheat crop came in better than what was feared and good quality which is so not like El-Nino. This should help new crop planting ideas.

US flour mills are buying HRW as 13% cheaper than spring wheat, and the Gulf is firmer with recent Chinese business on SRW.

We note, revenue insurance prices for the new crop wheat are already $1 a bushel over present values for SRW, and more than $1.50 over the HRW, so the farmer has protection until harvest. So, perhaps, it would be a prudent thought to protect the crop insurance via calls?

Wheat futures slipped to new lows again today and with wheat dogging it, how can corn perform better?

For tonight and tomorrow, March Chicago wheat has resistance at 576 and 592 with support at 550 and 540.  For the week ahead, resistance is 590 and 601 with support at 567 and 555.

KC March wheat has resistance at 611 and 624 with support at 589 and 580. For the week ahead, resistance is 629 and 643 with support at 604 and 593.

 

LIVESTOCK:      Thankfully for cattle feeders, the cash market continues to carry a nice premium over futures. This indicates there should be no deliveries. The concern however, is that the futures are leading the cash market south??? There is no reason to hold cattle longer with cash being the lagging market.

Total open interest increased 4,747 contracts to 397,649 as of last Tuesday on November 21^st.  Commercial accounts increased their longs by 6,643 contacts and increased short positions by 5,985 contracts. However, managed money liquidated longs by 2,252 contract for a total of 53,824 and increased their short position by only 140 contracts taking those positions to 14,662 and reducing spreads by 5,991 which brings that total to 53,222 contracts. After last Friday and again today’s rout we suspect the next report will show much more long liquidation.

Today’s break takes this market to nearly $7 below last week’s cash. There was talk of cash trade this morning in Kansas and Texas at 175.  Packer bids were said to slip to 168 as the day wore on. The USDA this afternoon reports trade in Texas of 1,564 head at 175, Kansas selling 442 head at 175, and Iowa selling 2,604 head at 175.  This is down $2 from last week.

The choice cutout was down 78 cents at $297.25 and select was down 96 cents at $267.80.  With last week’s slaughter cut short due to the holiday, today’s strength in the cutout may not last as we move through the week.

Technically, the February contract filled a gap left on the charts to the downside at 169.20 but this did not stall the decent. We think the markets are funky on higher interest rates, imports of beef coming at high levels, and a market that is bent on cleansing the funds. We note, the December 2024, the February and April 2025 all made new contract lows today. Longer term, we view these distant contracts will offer opportunity but, when we review the quarterly indicators that we alerted to some time ago in October (?) we have to say, one quarter will not heal this market. Therefore, we will keep you abreast of the potential rally efforts and they need to be used for hedging risk in both fats and feeders. This takes time when talking quarterly data.

We share the January feeder chart for your perusal:

Lastly, it was talked about on Twitter or X that there are some solvency issues involving third party underwriters for LRP livestock insurance. The underwriters are forced to sell huge numbers of futures contracts to stay solvent.  This has nothing to do with fundamentals for beef.  The government needs to step in. Fundamentally, the industry is still liquidating herd.

Bottom line, imports of beef are high, but US numbers are going to become tighter and the cow – calf producer has little incentive to hold cows and continues to cull but another issue in the cow – calf industry is that producers are becoming older and deciding they do not wish to continue. This sentiment in this type of market only increases. That longer term is bullish but for now, the technical indicators that we follow are bearish.  Note:  This does not mean the market cannot have a reactive or corrective rally effort as it can and probably will. I wish we could give you a target on the upside to shoot for in feeder cattle but we have to bear with this through December to get a new quarter on the chart. Stay tune and use puts to floor when rallies come and as vibrant to the downside this break has been, know that volatility could send this market running higher but we first have to watch the daily and weekly chart. Of which, the daily charts for January feeders is not in favor of a rally effort.

Note, should this market run higher even for only a few days into our cycle window of timing, do not get bulled up and use it for protection.

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 11-27-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Soybeans trying to firm but will it be able to?

Futures Cash Info Evening Comment for 11-26-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Evening!  Opening calls are for 2 to 4 lower on soybeans and steady to weaker on corn and wheat.

Futures Cash Info Update for Friday, November 24th, 2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 24, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

I know we said there would not be a written commentary until Monday, but with the slide in soybeans today, we felt we should offer the BAM WX outlook video for you to view.  Some were saying Brazil had heavy rains and to some extent that was true but in areas that sure didn’t need more.

Soybeans closed below the trend line of support from the October low.  Often, soybeans tend to be lower the day after Thanksgiving and the next cycle window of time is December 5,6, and 13^th for soybeans, corn, and wheat, along with cattle and hogs, gold, crude oil and the dollar.

Take a view of BAM’s weather and per my morning weather audio outlook, it remained hot and dry with disappointing rains in center and northeastern Brazil.  Not aggressive rains in the drier areas. The market gave up on Wednesday and followed through to a lower weekly close. I had hoped for a higher weekly close but not to be.

 

WEATHER:      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbs3HcCCf6w&ab_channel=BAMWX

 

Thoughts:     The longer term soybean price pattern is becoming interesting. If we look  at the last few big bull markets, the big 2008 rally, culminated in a high of 1663 in nearby futures, followed by a quick sharp drop taking half of that value off the table. From there, soybeans rallied back up to make their all-time high in 2012 at 1796.75. From that high made in September 2012 to June of 2014, soybeans were able to hang onto their big rally for most part, slipping back to “$13” a bushel and then rallying back to $15, before crashing. It took a total of 20 months before the market adjusted to long term fundamentals. 

 

Our recent high of 1784 was made in May 2022, which makes it 17 months since the high , on a market that is essentially holding the “$13” level again. So….if it starts to rain in Brazil in January, with a larger expected Argentine soy crop, would that offer another 20 months hold before the break? Not so sure. With Brazilian farmers holding, the US farmers holding, and the Argentine farmers holding and uncertain how quickly they will sell when Milei is installed into presidency, the environment sounds vulnerable so, we offer caution becoming too adamantly bullish. Stay tune as we will offer cash sales insight.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Commentary for 11-24-2023.mpe

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Markets close early today.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-22-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 22, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

NOTE:     There will be no trading on Thursday evening for grains but metals and energies will open regular time at 5 pm this evening and halt trading at 1:30 pm on Thursday. Then, the two markets will reopen at 5 pm on Thursday evening but halt trading on Friday at 12:45 pm.  Grains will reopen on Friday at 8:30 am and cease trading earlier at 12:05 pm. Livestock will open at 8:30 am on Friday and cease trading at 12:05 pm.

Currencies will trade at 7 pm this evening and trade with normal hours and reopen at 7 pm on Thursday evening but close at 12:15 pm on Friday.

The softs will be closed and reopen regular hours on Friday.  Orange juice will open at 7 am on Friday and close earlier at 12:30 pm .

We will not have a weekend commentary but will be back to normal on Monday morning for our morning audio and closing commentary.  We will be available for Sunday evening trading for clients.

 

We want to take this moment to wish all subscribers and clients a Happy Thanksgiving and wishing you a great holiday shared with family and friends.

 

WEATHER:      Forecasts call for rains next week over Ukrainian and Russian grain producing areas. However, the eastern Russian grain areas will see below normal rainfall with above normal temperatures.  Below normal rainfall is forecast for Chinese grain areas with above normal temps.  Western Australia turns back drier with above normal temperatures with the same forecast for northeastern Brazilian ag areas with below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for Argentina.     

 

CORN:     Corn traded quietly on both sides today and closed flat. The South Korean’s showed up earlier this week, not waiting for another WASDE report of which there will not be a production survey this time. Taiwan’s MFIG bought 65 tmt of corn and FAS announced the sale of 128 tmt of US corn to unknown destinations. China??? South Korean NOFI bought 65 tmt of corn for March and Egypt is in for corn for February. Not sure just how much. Export sales on Friday are estimated at 800 tmt.

 

Brazilian CONAB said the summer corn was 49% planted versus 63% last year at this time. Agroconsult called the Brazilian summer corn crop at 28.7 MMT and the safrinha at 100 MMT or total production of 128.7 MMT with corn exports at 55 MMT.

 

Corn enjoyed a quiet inside range day and the 50-day moving average rests at 496 basis the March contract.

 

In May of 2022, the nearby monthly corn chart made a double top with the 2012 high at 822 and has been in a bear trend ever since. Some 18 months later, corn has now given up nearly 50% of that level and is acting as though it will take a breather. Over the past 16 years, the price area around 450  has been a chart point, either a high for corn rallying up out of the depths of negativity, or a low for corn swooping down from above. In 2007, 2009, 2015, and 2016, the corn price showed highs around this level rallying from lower levels, and in 2013 and 2021, we had lows in a close proximity of that level. Since August, corn has been moving in a sideways affair and holding the 450 level within 15 cents. It seems interesting that the market has stalled the bear’s paw and again, we draw attention to the monthly indicators that we prefer which stand at 1% for the floater and timer with the TRx turning positive which is usually a first clue.

 

For Friday,  December corn has resistance at 473 and 476 with support at 467 and 464.  

 

 

SOYBEANS:      Soybeans  fell today on liquidation ahead of Thanksgiving and what some say was decent rains in Mato Grosso overnight. Funds were noted sellers of 8,000 contracts of soybeans, 2,000 contracts of soyoil, and 2,000 soymeal.

 

Sinograin is still in our market having bought another two cargoes overnight out of the PNW for January and they also bought two cargoes out of Brazil for the same timeframe.

 

India is said to have washed out of two cargoes of crude palm olein for December, South Korean NOFI bought 55 tmt of soymeal for March and April 2024, Mexico is inquiring for soybeans, Iran’s SLAL is tendering for 120 tmt of soymeal for December  - February, and Korean Agro-Fisheries are due in on November 27^th for 50 tmt of non-GMO soybeans for January – February 2025.

 

Argentina registered 109,602 mt of soymeal for export overnight and 71 tmt of soybeans.

 

Export sales on Friday are expected to be around 1.3 MMT for soybeans, 300 tmt of soymeal, and nothing for soyoil.

 

Mato Grosso caught 1/10^th to 9/10s inch of rain overnight but this is a far cry from what has been forecast and note, this is monsoonal season???

 

The European model run is dry for northern regions of Brazil and wet for the southern portion of the country.  NASA with satellite-based root zone soil moisture maps showed Mato Grosso short of normal moisture by 5 to 6 inches over the last 90 days, while, southern Brazil has a surplus of 12 to 15 inches.

 

CONAB said this morning that Brazil is 66% planted versus 76% last year at this time. They forecast soybean production at 162 MMT versus the current USDA at 158 MMT. FYI, combined South American soybean production which includes Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Uruguay are forecast to produce 228.6 MMT versus 193.7 MMT last season. The soybean exports for the combined producers is forecast to be 100.9 MMT  in 2024 versus 101.1 MMT for 2023.

 

Thoughts:     The longer term soybean price pattern is becoming interesting. If we look  at the last few big bull markets, the big 2008 rally, culminated in a high of 1663 in nearby futures, followed by a quick sharp drop taking half of that value off the table. From there, soybeans rallied back up to make their all-time high in 2012 at 1796.75. From that high made in September 2012 to June of 2014, soybeans were able to hang onto their big rally for most part, slipping back to “$13” a bushel and then rallying back to $15, before crashing. It took a total of 20 months before the market adjusted to long term fundamentals. 

 

Our recent high of 1784 was made in May 2022, which makes it 17 months since the high , on a market that is essentially holding the “$13” level again. So….if it starts to rain in Brazil in January, with a larger expected Argentine soy crop, would that offer another 20 months hold before the break? Not so sure. With Brazilian farmers holding, the US farmers holding, and the Argentine farmers holding and uncertain how quickly they will sell when Milei is installed into presidency, the environment sounds vulnerable so, we offer caution becoming too adamantly bullish. Stay tune as we will offer cash sales insight.

 

For Friday, January soybeans have resistance at 1373 and 1387 with support at 1349 and 1339. Next major cycle window timings are December 5,6, and 13^th.     

 

 

WHEAT:      Foreign Ag Service reported a sale of 110 tmt of US SRW to China this morning and that gave wheat some moxie. There is talk that China has secured another  2 to 4 cargoes of wheat off the PNW today. However, the market backed off later in the session when soybeans gained more aggressive selling. Still, funds are said to have bought 2,000 contracts today.

 

Export sales on Friday are estimated to be nearly 300 tmt.

 

There is forecast of snow and rain coming into the southern Plains for the weekend and moving into the SRW areas early next week but moving out quickly.

 

UN’s World Food Program said that they concern Ukrainian wheat production may not be able to meet domestic and export demand if Russian attacks on Black Sea export routes and on the food infrastructure continue. Wait until Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly the F16s that are being sent there by the turn of the year. Then, we can add in Russian ports as well. All is fair in love and war. Will that be what sends this market finally out of the cellar?

 

Brazilian wheat harvest is said to be 94% complete compared to last year’s 73%.

 

We read that many commercials tend to think we will lose more SRW acres percentage wise than the HRW, with the initial estimates that SRW will lose from 600,000 to 1 million acres this fall, and talk on the HRW down 200,000 to 600,000 acres. Some of this drop in acres may be due to weather?

 

For Friday, December  wheat resistance is 563 and 565 with support at 554 and 551. KC December wheat has resistance at 622 and 627 with support at 612 and 607.       

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     The comprehensive carcass weights were released yesterday afternoon showing a 10 lbs per head increase from the week before. At 900 pounds per head, the carcass was 6 lbs over the same week last year. It is thought carcass weights may exceed the prior peak of 900 lbs. and steer weights should continue to increase to possibly reach the prior peak of 931 pounds. This is mostly due to cattle being fed longer to reach heavier weights due to the bullish attitude that remains in the market.

 

Cash trade did occur today in Texas and Kansas with Texas reporting 4,120 head at 176.96 and Kansas reporting 5,432 head at 176.98.  Nebraska reported 250 head at 177 and 2,624 head at 280 dressed.  Iowa reported 1,533 head at 177.53 and 941 head at 280.63 dressed. All of these would be at lower values than last week.

 

The afternoon cutout was up  $1.19 at $297.00 with select down $1.15 at $267.62 with movement of 144 loads.

 

Technically, cattle appear to be consolidating but we need to be watchful that this market does not slip out the downside.  The next cycle windows that are major are December 5,6, and 13^th.  Note, the 5^th and 6^th tend to also be on seasonality.      

 

 

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

FCI Morning Audio for 11-22-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Holiday feeling market today with lighter volume. Still, the markets may surprise.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-21-2023

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 21, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

WEATHER:     It has been a bit since we last shared our South American weather service outlook for the US. They tend to not forecast SA?

North America / USA 'Big Picture' Weather Overview

November 20 - December 09, 2023

 

Three waves of colder air will cover many central and southern areas coast to coast yet it will be of light to moderate intensity because the three negative-ion oscillations covering N America are disorganized & are not aligned well but the colder duration will last 10 days and will seed polar & arctic waves of greater intensity during most of the 2H Dec after milder air Dec 6 [UTF-8?]– 13.

____________________ 

Important Top-10 Weather Stories, Themes & Bullets On Our Mind

1. The EURO is now +19 HDDs above climo for the next 15d, confirming our forecast of its major shift to colder: The big switch in the EURO is now bullish, but it's not likely to add more cold.
2. Consensus modeling continues to miss the cold spells which could become a repetitive theme:It is not likely that Consensus will radically change with addt'l lead time to forecast cold air.
3. Most areas of the Nation will be injected with pulsations of chillier than usual air: However, it's important to note deviations below normal for Northern States from WA to MN will be smaller.
4. Magnetics will likely add 10-20% more blue over the USA with the pre-Thanksgiving update: However, a week from today, for Nov 27 - Dec 14, it will incorporate the milder Dec 6-13 period.
5. Starting Thanksgiving, count 10-11 consecutive days of below normal temperatures at the national level: Once arctic air starts flowing-in to the USA late this week it will be very consistent.
6. Strength of Nov 23 - Dec 3 cold pulsations confirms mostly lighter over northern areas, but more moderate intensity south: However, cold persistence will keep stability in the lower temps.
7. Other weather agencies will likely add addt'l HDDs to the Dec forecast since Consensus models missed both cold spells in the last 30d:Until the switch occurred, there was little lead time.
8. Widespread blue on the magnetics nationwide is going to seed the polar drop in December: The 2H Dec is expected to have two major pulsations, which will likely last into early Jan East.
9. Jan-24 cold lingers in the East but likely ends early as the winter pattern reverses & allows the cold pool to move and re-develop into the West-Central States:Modeling confidence is 74%.
10. Retrograde motion of the cold likely continues in Feb-24 and intensifies producing record cold in the West at times:This will cause a lot of wind to come out of the West into Central zones.

____________________ 

 

 

CORN:     Unlike the previous two years of inverted markets that left elevators with limited ability to earn a profit from storing grain, the old-fashioned return of carrying charge markets should now allow elevators ability to recapture some profit potential. That said, the current challenge for grain elevators is in gaining ownership of bushels. Farmers too, have on farm storage and in many areas of the Midwest, yields were down from a year ago, so they may have had more on farm storage room?  However, adding to the farmer’s reluctance of selling corn and soybeans is the prices have fallen sharply from their peaks of earlier this year and last year. Basis levels have fallen to multi-year lows in some parts of the Midwest. It is thought that more farmer stored grain will start to move in early 2024 as farmers need cash for spring planting and operational expenses. We should add, farmers may be more enticed to make sales when or if, prices reach over $5. In the months ahead, a move to 550 should prove tough resistance as it would be psychological.  We should add, many grain farmers have a better cash position following last year’s record farm income levels and this may allow them to hold cash longer.

 

For today, there isn’t much  export talk but South Korea’s MFG bought 68 tmt of corn for March, Saudi Arabia is looking for corn for February, Iran’s SLAL is in for 180 tmt of corn for December – February, and Taiwan’s MFIG is in tomorrow night for 65 tmt of corn for January shipment.

 

There is talk that the US farmer sold a light amount of corn today when the board was on its highs.  Domestic corn basis remains firm to the processor in the western Corn Belt and softer in the eastern side.

 

As for option expiration on Friday, the 480 and 490 calls and puts seem to have the most open interest that may cause the market to hesitate to garner the most cash. We find it interesting that farmers have had $5 cash bids during harvest and did not reward the market place, what is it going to take to get the farmer to sell? We hear it may be time more than price as those who have corn stored at the elevator and near the end of their free storage , the will be presented with large charges for the “deferred pricing” where they could leave their corn stored unpriced, but sold on basis. We read that these charges are running on the order of 30 cents a bushel if the farmer wishes to hold off until the end of 2023, and then it is 10 cents a month thereafter, so effectively 10% of the $5 corn some farmers can still get out in the western Corn Belt. It may be the farmer will say, I will sell the corn in January as I don’t want any more income in 2023.

 

Not to be repetitive, but our monthly indicators show the March corn continuous floater at 1% negative, the timer at 1% negative (doesn’t go to zero) and the TRx is turning nicely positive having started the turn on the close of calendar month September. The March contract continues to hold the 200 month moving average.  The stochastic %K is 6% and the % D is 17%.  We continue to look for a sign confirming these indicators will be turning positive which will open the door for a nice move higher. The weekly trending averages remain negative but are a heartbeat away from turning long.  Stay tune.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, December corn has resistance at 474 and 478 with support at 467 and 464.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans followed through today on talk of Chinese buying of US soybeans but the session caught long liquidation near the 1390 area and slipped back to just higher on the session. However, as the market drew to a close the futures rallied to close mid-ranged.  China bought one cargo out of Brazil on Monday for December delivery and Sinograin bought 4 cargoes of US soybeans out of the PNW overnight. There is also talk of 3 more cargoes bought for March delivery out of the US Gulf.  We need to add a comment here:  We are told that Sinograin hates buying Brazilian soybeans, unless they are buying for their own crushing plants. The soybeans are said to not store well and as the thought goes, “Brazilian soybeans don’t store well in Brazil and they don’t store well in China either.” Therefore, they tend to buy Argentine and US soybeans but for now, Argentine soybeans are out of the question until late April. Thus the US is going to get some Chinese buying for time slots that shouldn’t work from February to April this season simply because the Reserve buyer has no choice on the origin.  Does that portend to somewhat better export numbers for the US this season than most traders are willing to admit to?

 

Funds are said to have bought 2,000 contracts of soybeans and 3,000 contracts of soyoil while, selling of 2,000 soymeal contracts. Soymeal closed lower on the session and soyoil gained nicely.

 

North of the border, Canada exported 2.2 MMT of canola for their season to date which is down 11% for the year. China’s National Energy Administration is planning to carry out pilot projects to boost usage of biodiesel.  Indonesian, GAPKI said September palm oil production was 4.14 MMT with exports of 2.69 MMT, down 21% from a year ago and stocks at 3.1 MMT.

 

US farmers took advantage of this morning’s rally and sold soybeans, easing the basis a bit, the Gulf basis was firmer and soymeal basis remains firm while the soyoil basis is said to be steady today.

 

FYI, as of Monday, the December options for soybeans showed 4,000 of the 1360 calls open and 5,600 of the 1400 calls open. These expire on Friday the 24^th. Does this mean the market will slip on Friday to close under 1360 to take all the premium home?

 

As for Brazilian soybeans needing to be replanted, no one really knows for sure. We originally thought soybeans would gain power when the calendar turned to November and that happened but, we also suspect more interest will increase when the calendar moves to December and the forecast reasserts heat and dryness with too much rain in the south.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1389 and 1401 with support at 1364 and 1351.  We do not anticipate soybeans to enjoy and outside week higher or taking out 1398.4 this week. Therefore, we just may see a market that slips back on Friday below 1360???

 

 

WHEAT:      Wheat firmed nicely today on talk of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian ports, and this market is very short. 

 

South Korea’s KFM passed on a tender for 51 tmt of Australian wheat for February – March, Jordan bought 60 tmt of wheat in their tender today, Indonesia is looking for wheat for February, Mexico is in for wheat for March, Algeria’s OAIC tendered for 50 tmt of milling wheat for December – February to two ports, and started buying while Tunisia is due in tomorrow tendering for 100 tmt of milling wheat for December and January shipment.

 

Crop conditions came in at 48% which was better than expected and up 16% from last year for this past week.

 

Canada has exported 7.72 MMT of wheat for their season to date, up 10% from last year.

 

Russia hit Ukrainian ports of Odessa and ports in the Danube delta hard today, with talk that there is significant damage to facilities.

 

The USDA season is one month offset from that of Ukraine, but they are at 12 MMT of exports.

 

Looking at Argentine harvest, there is the forecast of rains for the coming two weeks that may slow up the backside of harvest there.

 

Like corn, December wheat options expire on Friday. The largest Chicago open interest is at the 550 strike but only 4,000 contracts. So???

 

Bottom line, we remain in the mood of buying breaks and we suspect some shorts may have gotten caught on Monday.  Or, is that wishful thinking?

 

For tonight and tomorrow, December Chicago wheat has resistance at 561 and 566 with support at 546 and 536. KC December wheat has resistance at 623 and 627 with support at 610 and 601. The next major cycle window of timing is December 5^th, 6^th, and 13^th.           

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     What can we say? This market is waffling back and forth after the huge break that took our breath away.  The market acts as though it has gone into holiday mode.  We note, the December fats did gain slightly on the February and April contracts today.

 

We have noticed good movement in the boxed beef and beef prices at the grocery store remains fairly high priced.  It is only Tuesday and very little cash trade has occurred which we have to note, is a holiday week. Come next Monday, packers may need cattle to fill their kill with the week following Thanksgiving usually a large slaughter week.

 

There was no trade in Texas today, Kansas had light trade at 176, Nebraska sold 300 head at $280 dressed and Iowa had light trade at 176 – 177.

 

The closing beef wire showed choice up 6 cents at $295.81 and select down $2.18 at $268.77. Movement was great at 144 boxes and 23 trim.  Note, today’s boxed beef movement is the highest since November 6^th.

 

Technically, the fats seem about ready to turn higher. This market appears to have run the bear course and we have another month left in this quarter. Placements are forecast to drop off in coming months. Then, come April or May and we start to see heifers being retained for breeding, the fall market may be a good venture. Our take is to watch the October 2024 contract and build a long position on breaks. Stay tune.    

 

 

 

 

 DISCLAIMER:

This email may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this email by mistake), please notify the sender immediately and destroy this email. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this email is strictly prohibited. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. (FCI) is independently separate of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC., a US guaranteed introducing broker and a member of the NFA. FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC. does not warrant the accuracy or correctness of any information herein or the appropriateness of any transaction. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable; however, no guarantee to its accuracy is made. Opinions expressed herein are those of the author and not necessarily of FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC, nor of AG & INVESTMENT SERVICES, INC. All electronic communications may be reviewed by authorized personnel and may be provided to regulatory authorities or others with a legal right to access such information. Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any futures contract, option, security, or derivative, including foreign exchange.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 11-21-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Will this be an up Monday, up Tuesday, up every day of the week except for one?  Note, Thanksgiving week tends to be positive and the market could

be down on Friday and still close higher for the week.

Futures Cash Info Evening Commentary for 11-20-2023.mp3

 

 

 

 

FUTURES CASH INFO, LLC

Advisory of Ag Markets Infusing a Forward Outlook

Realizing the Present and Discovering the Future Using Hard Facts and Vision

 

November 20, 2023

Sales Recommendations:  Note, an “*” means trade recommendation on cash or towards cash is complete.  Please note, cash sales are recommended in the calendar year for off the combine sales. When the calendar year rolls over, cash sales recommendations will continue for those holding onto cash grain or soy for the coming old crop season in the next year. We have wiped away all of last year’s cash sales recommendations. Sales that were recommended into December remain. Those sales would pertain to 2022/23 as old crop and new crop sales recommendations are in December for corn, November for soybeans, and in wheat they should refer to May and July.

Corn :    6-21-2023   Recommend making sales for new crop corn at 630 area basis December futures. Make 25% cash sales. We moved this recommendation to at the market which would have filled around 618-619 via our morning audio. Done

Late last year, we recommended selling 15% December corn at 621 and missed this when moving to a new template.   On December 06th, this was fulfilled using the old crop December contract as price guide but moving to new crop 2023. This brings the total new crop corn sales to 40%. (this would have offered a 598 price target to clarify)

Soybeans:      12-1-2022:   We suggest making a sale of 15% new crop November soybeans at 1420. This will be the first start to 2023  marketing suggestions.  DONE (note, the high today was 1420 and on 12-30-22 made a high of 1427.75)

Recommend selling 20% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1414 -1421. DONE  This brings new crop cash sales to 35% sold.

10-18-2023 **Recommend selling 15% new crop soybeans when futures reach 1322 basis November futures (especially if marketing off the combine) ( CANCEL this recommendation as the market did not officially touch 1322 basis the November contract)  New crop soybean sales are 35% complete.

 

Wheat:

 

WEATHER:       

CORN:      Corn futures continue to wallow in the trading range but, we continue to view the option strategy below as a potential way to be long the market with less money. The margin for the option strategy below is $785.   

 

NOTE:  Buy the May corn 500 call, sell the 560 call, and sell the 470 put. One may be able to get these on at 3.5 cents.  This could be another way for end users to establish protection to the upside.

 

Mexico bought 104 tmt of US corn today with delivery in 2023/24 marketing year.

 

If, it rains this week in center and northern Brazil  as is forecast, we should also note, the forecast also continues to carry heat coming back as we move into the turn of the calendar into December.  It may be fool hardy to wipe of the Brazilian soybean crop in November but this year does go down in the history books as very unusually dry and hot for a November. It has been seen before in October and December, but in November?

 

While, the challenging weather pattern with too wet in the south and too dry in the north does not bode well for the first crop of corn, it is still too early to believe it will be sharply reduced. That said, with the late planting of soybeans and perhaps replanting, we would anticipate the safrinha corn crop which is the exportable crop and larger crop of Brazil will see reduced acreage as the money making prospect is not too green at this time.

 

We have been establishing the corn option position discussed above and this would offer some sense of stabilizing corn values for feed costs for the livestock producer.  FYI, these got as low for the 3-way reversal  as 2 ½ cents and closed at 3 cents.

 

Corn traded both sides of Friday’s close today.  AgRural calls 80% of the summer corn crop in Brazil is planted.  That compares to 82% last year at this time and Safras says 86% of the crop is planted. 

 

We spent time on Argentine farmer’s selling plan for soybeans come December 11^th and corn will probably be similar (see soybeans).

 

China imported 2.04 MMT of corn in October of which 1.8 MMT came from Brazil. Sinograin will auction off 222 tmt of reserve corn tomorrow.

 

Ukraine has exported 4.9 MMT of corn thus far this season which is down 40% !!! As number 4 exporter, this should mean something.  It may be another reason why China has bought so much Brazilian corn since China is a very large import destination for Ukrainian corn.  Ukrainian railways are set to increase freight tariffs, with farmers complaining that they will sow less area with the higher costs.

 

In the states, domestic cash is firm in the west where most processors are, and weaker in the east.  This may be especially so on the River.

 

A surprise on the Commitment of Traders report was that the commercial is short as of last Tuesday, but only by 34,000 contracts. This reflects the light selling by farmers. Commercials say the farmers have sold only 25 to 35 % of their corn crop.  All I can say, with the farmer holding so much crop, we really need to take advantage of Brazil’s weather issues as we move forward. Still, our long term indicators remain in a position to turn  nicely positive and we will keep subscribers alert to the indicators going forward as this will/should offer insight to cash sales.

 

The question is, “will farmers become aggressive sellers as we move into year end as they need to pay off loans?” A lot of farmers are running out of free storage at the elevator, and finding that the charge for deferred pricing if you want to keep your corn and price it later is 30 cents a bushel to the end of the calendar year, with another 10 cents per month thereafter.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, March corn has resistance at 490 and 491 with support at 484 and 479.

 

 

SOYBEANS:     Soybeans grabbed ahold when pushing the moving averages of support (the daily 40 and 200 moving averages at 1327) and rebounded higher by 40 cents. Today was a big day and we note, an old saying is “the bulls get their turkey for Thanksgiving and the bears get it for Christmas.”  Or, another way to say this is “if the bears get their turkey for Thanksgiving, then the bulls will get theirs for Christmas.” Beside the moving average support of 1327, what gave soybeans incentive to surge aggressively? (after all, January soybeans closed today over the 10-day moving average)

 

We suspect one of the fundamental driving forces today was the rains thus far in center and northern Brazil have disappointed but more is in the forecast as we go into next weekend.  Perhaps, another driving force was that with the liberalist Milei winning the presidential runoff in Argentina, farmers are said to have shut off making sales. One cannot blame them with the new president not to be sworn into office until December 10^th and his mantra is that he will lower taxes which includes export taxes on agricultural commodities. He has also said he will do away with the peso which has lost 90% to the US Dollar and go onto the Dollar currency standard. So, the soybean market is apprehensive  and with Argentina on holiday today with not much cash movement by farmers, soybeans had some reason to lift.

 

Still, less than expected rainfall over the weekend also added support beneath this market. Is the market becoming a “prove it to me” mentality when talking rain for Brazil? We also note, there are rumors that China is back buying US cargos of soybeans along with short covering hitting the soymeal market on the news from Argentina. Sinograin is said to have bought two cargoes of US soybeans out of the PNW for January delivery.

 

We also note, there is talk that the US has bought one cargo of Brazilian soybeans for delivery in March.

 

Funds bought 10,000 soybean contracts, 4,000 soyoil contracts, and 3,000 soymeal contracts today.

 

There was an article today that talked about farmers in Mato Grosso have elected to plant more cotton due to the dryness for replanting.  69% of the Brazilian soybeans are planted versus 80% last year at this time.

 

In October, China imported 5.16 MMT of which 4.8 MMT came from Brazil. At the end of October, the Chinese sow herd is estimated at 42.1 million head with Chinese state media saying the country’s pig population is still too high and policies must be put in place to promote more reasonable capacity.  That would make US exports of pork to China seem like the future is dim for now.

 

After meeting with Brazilian president, Lula last week, Brazilian vegoil companies plan to invest some $10 billion in the Brazilian biofuels industry. That said, the processor is still bidding for the domestic bean basis, the US Gulf is firm, the meal is fully steady to start our week, but the oil is sloppy.

 

Technically, the Jan soybeans made an outside day reversal higher. Our indicators are negative with the timer at 93% and the floater at 66% with the TRx negative and the fickle stochastic K at 66% and the D at 73%.  We also note, last night’s low hit the trend line of support from the May 31^st low and the October 12^th low. Now what?

 

Soymeal has been the best support for soybeans and last Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed commercials were net short soymeal to the tune of 244,000 contracts. Compare that to the soybean net short of 166,000 contracts which reflects smaller than normal farmer selling thus far.

 

Now, our indicators on soybeans are long and while the market took it hard last week, it rebounded quite strongly today. Still, we note, this is a weather market that is driving this futures contract higher due to too dry in Brazil in the north and too wet in the south. It is too early to kill the crop in November but, farmers are coming out of one weather market and now being caught up in another one. We need to keep emotions in check so that we don’t repeat mistakes of not making cash sales when we should. This time around it is the help of Brazilian weather that is driving the market north and thankful for that. This on top of a US carryout of 245 million bushels which is still tight. Regardless, our indicators still have a long way to move before concern as they are long term.

 

Now, we share our weekly January indicators for soybeans. They are as follows: The floater is 55% positive, the timer is 18% positive, the TRx is positive but also at potential resistance, and the stochastic is 42% K and 25% D on a continuous weekly lead contract. Now, using the January soybean contract specific continuous weekly chart, the floater is 30% positive, the timer is 15% neutral and the TRx is positive. The stochastic has turned higher. The weekly and daily chart is winding into a tight pin-net. So, the weekly and monthly indicators are in good shape but the daily is very overdone. 

 

One more thought, if Argentine farmers are suddenly getting dollars instead of pesos for their soybeans on December 11^th, you would think they will sell a chunk of new crop soybeans starting on Day One forward of the Milei era, as they would now be getting dollars instead of pesos for their crop. This is a big change from the last decade, when they had to constantly play the waiting on the peso game.  The crushers will be buying the lion’s share of these new crop soybeans, and they will need to lay off their risk, thus they will be expected to sell May and July board soymeal aggressively as hedges, since they will  likely be unable to sell physical soymeal for that timeslot six months out?

 

Therefore, it looks like the market wants to put in risk premium for Brazilian weather in soybeans , while keeping the pressure on the summer months in soymeal off of Argentina.  Just thoughts.

 

For tonight and tomorrow, January soybeans have resistance at 1381 and 1395 with support at 1340 and 1313.

 

 

WHEAT:      Too early to believe but Ukrainian Ag Ministry says wheat production  is expected to decline next year.

 

Wheat futures slipped again today but the daily March Chicago wheat may be just forming the bottom of the huge potential saucer.  Weekend rains over HRW areas was better than forecast on last Friday. Of course this is great for wheat as it emerges and moves towards dormancy.

 

In the Black Sea, SovEcon said November Russian wheat exports are 3.9 MMT versus 4.6 MMT cleared in October and prices are steady. Ukraine has exported 5.3 MMT of wheat so far this season, down 11% from a year ago, and the Ukrainian Ag Ministry said that new crop wheat production should be 18 to 20 MMT.  India’s wheat planting has been said to be 8.6 million hectares which is down 6% from last year, and delays due to delayed rice harvest.

 

Of all the grains, wheat is the most sensitive to moves in the US Dollar, and one of the reasons the wheat has been in a downtrend over the summer was the relentless uptrend in the Dollar.  Hedge funds tend to make a portion of their decisions on macros of the Dollar. For now, the Dollar is not strong and this should offer another clue of what could be a potential bullish argument with time???

 

For tonight and tomorrow,  December wheat has resistance at 552 and 559 with support at 539 and 533. KC December wheat has resistance at 620 and 627 with support for 606 and 599.

 

 

 

LIVESTOCK:     There was rumors today that a large Iowa hog farm that had at one point 11,000 sows is going under due to missing payments. As mentioned in the soybean section, China talks of 42.1 million head of hogs and is indicating poor demand and with low prices, needs to find a way for reduced numbers. It could be that they have African Swine Fever again and are seeing liquidation which is putting too much pork into the market?

 

The stock market has had a nice rally in the past month. The rhetoric on the media that there is no recession and likely not next year (election year?) is offering support underneath this market. This should offer support to cattle. Choice beef is off the high by $34 and the Dollar is in decline which should help with exports.

 

Technically, our quarterly indicators remain in negative mode but with a $43 break in the feeders, this market should be able to stage a corrective rally effort. This market is one-step-at-a-time.

 

The closing beef wire showed choice up $1.88 at $295.75 with select up 25 cents at $270.95. Movement was 104 boxes and 31 trim.      

 

 

 

 

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Futures Cash Info Morning Audio for 11-20-2023.mp3

Listen To The Audio Commentary
Good Morning!  Soybeans found reprieve against technical support and less than desirable rainfall in Mato Grosso and Goias over the weekend.