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Futures Cash Info 4-28-15

Futures Cash Info, LLC.

Good morning! The US Dollar is lower again this morning while the Euro is gaining strength.

Global stocks softened on Chinese stocks slipping and investors are said to be moving to the sidelines today as they await news out of the Federal Reserve meeting. This is impacting the Dollar as well, with more macro-economic data giving the Fed more insight to the US economy. Note, the Fed is not expected to hold a news conference nor provide any forecasts when it ends its meetings on Wednesday. Traders expect little to no change in the Fed’s policy statement after recent weaker-than-expected domestic data.

Bottom line, the Dollar is still in a correction phase and consensus had reached 91% bullish so, this correction may take a bit longer and could move a touch deeper towards 95-96 but, FCI still remains bullish the Dollar over the longer term.

Tyson Foods plans to eliminate most human antibiotics from chicken production by mid-2017.

Weather: This morning’s forecast calls for mainly dry conditions for the next 5 days in the western and eastern Corn Belt. Temperatures will be warmer than normal which will also help to dry out those wetter spots. Temps will remain above normal for the next ten days.

A quarter of an inch of precipitation is forecast for the eastern portion of Oklahoma and Texas today and then turn dry for the rest of the 5 day forecast. Temps are to be above normal over the next ten days.

Southern Brazil is forecast to be mainly dry with cooler than normal temps for the next five days with average precipitation in the 6-10 day forecast accompanied with cooler than normal temps.

Northern Brazil should see less than an inch of rain over the next five days with normal precipitation and average to below average temps being forecast for the next 6-10 days.

Argentina is to remain dry over the five day forecast and turn warmer than normal for the 6-10 day forecast with average rainfall. Harvest should progress nicely but, the volcano that occurred on the border of Chile and Argentina is a concern as depending on the direction of the ash, could cause concerns for the crops?

Soybeans: Private exporters announce sales of 390 tmt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2015/16.

Malaysian palm oil slid to an eight month low overnight on a firming ringgit causing fear that the rising currency could make the tropical oil less attractive to global buyers.

Beans fell back to close closer to the previous day’s close on Monday but gained back strength on Monday night and Tuesday morning off of another sale of new crop soybeans to unknown. However, we think there is some short covering being done on concerns over the volcano that came to life last week near the border of Chile and Argentina. The gases and ash could ruin a portion of this season’s crop of soybeans but should also affect corn as well? We will be questioning on an international blog this morning in efforts to garner more info.

There were reports of positive tests at five new commercial poultry sites in Iowa that is now affecting more than 6 million birds in the state.

China has left their soybean target price unchanged.

Reports of farmers planting soybeans in Nebraska on Monday as farmers get started in a more aggressive planting mode.

SW Minnesota is also said to be planting soybeans and some reports of soybeans being planted in Wisconsin.

Corn: Nebraska got a slow start to the planting season with cooler than normal soil temperatures.

South Dakota planted 16% versus 10% of the corn acreage last year and 9% on the five year average.

Illinois planted another 16% to have an estimated 31% of the crop in the ground versus 28% last year and the five year average of 37%.

Corn futures are firmer this morning after a 6-day low was marked this morning however, the market is struggling to hold onto any gain. We continue to be committed to the outlook for lower prices as we move into May. That said, a May and possibly early June low is our expectation. Until the crop is planted, analysts will not have a better idea of how much acreage to talk about with more certainty (?) and until the crops are planted we should not add in weather premium in the face of good planting weather. We are pulling the market back so there is room for the rally.

Technically, the 180 chart shows the Trix moving higher and the values trying to stabilize this morning. There is some cycle window timing on corn, wheat and especially soybeans that is thought to be a high on May 4th.

Wheat: KC spot HRW basis will roll to the July on Wednesday.

Light deliveries are anticipated for the KC May wheat with Gulf and interior basis weakening. There is also the seasonal storage rate increase from July to December to contend with. Not sure how this comes into play.

July 2016 options began trading on Monday.

Wheat continues to lose ground as it heads closer towards harvest and all three classes set new contract lows.

Bottom line, this morning should see some bounce in the markets with many trading higher as we move towards month end and some short covering. That said, I tend to look for July soybeans to close on Thursday under the 977.5 level for a lower monthly close. Therefore, anything over that value is thought to be a premium for selling.

Have a great day!

 

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Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.
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Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of
strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on
information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that
Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such
information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is
subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we
give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the
advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds
positions in the recommendations.
This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of
Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically
transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the
prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.

 


Disclaimer

This material has been prepared by a sales or employee or agent of Futures Cash Info, LLC and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you agree that you are an experienced user of the futures markets, capable of making independent trading decisions, and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication in making trading decisions.

Distribution in some jurisdictions may be prohibited or restricted by law. Persons in possession of this communication indirectly should inform themselves about and observe any such prohibition or restrictions. To the extent that you have received this communication indirectly and solicitations are prohibited in your jurisdiction without registration, the market commentary in this communication should not be considered a solicitation.

This information is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy the commodities herein named. The factual information of this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily all-inclusive and is not guaranteed as to the accuracy, and is not to be construed as representation by Ag & Investment Services, Inc. nor, Futures Cash Info, LLC. There should be no association between Ag & Investment Services, Inc. or Futures Cash Info, LLC.

This report contains research as defined in applicable CFTC regulations. Neither the firm nor the research analyst have any positions in these products.

The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies, is not indicative of future results. Trading advice is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that Futures Cash Info, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.

Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. Recommendations does not mean that the advisor or, Futures Cash Info, LLC trades those recommendations or holds positions in the recommendations.

This copyrighted report is intended for the use of clients/subscribers of Futures Cash Info, LLC only and may not be reproduced or electronically transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Futures Cash Info, LLC.